Poll Finds Democratic State Senators Lead in Nashville Mayoral Race

A new poll of the Metro Nashville mayoral election released by Tennesseans for Student Success (TSS) found that State Senator Heidi Campbell (D-Nashville) leads the pack with 21.9 percent. State Senator Jeff Yarbro (D-Nashville) comes in second with 17 percent, and progressive Metro Council Member Freddie O’Connell comes in third with 15.6 percent.

The margin of error in the poll is 4.38 percent, with 500 participants taking part. The poll was conducted between May 2 – 4, 2023.

Notably, Jim Gingrich came in sixth place with only 4.2 percent, after having topped first quarter fundraising numbers, an effort he achieved mostly by self-funding.

The poll also asks participants a number of other questions, including who would be their second choice. State Senators Campbell and Yarbro again top the second-choice poll, tied at 20 percent, with Matt Wiltshire jumping up to third place garnering 10.2 percent.

The poll asked respondents which candidate qualities were most important when considering the respondent’s vote. A slim majority, 21.9 percent, listed the candidate’s positions on education and infrastructure spending atop their priorities.

More specifically on the issue of education spending, a robust majority of respondents, 46.5 percent, emphasized teacher pay raises as the most important priority for additional investments in education. 56.2 percent of respondents said that they supported a property tax increase to fund a teacher pay raise, with 31.9 percent opposed, and 11.9 percent unsure.

In a Tuesday night forum, the ten candidates on the stage all stated that they will not seek to raise property taxes in their first term.

The poll also asked what they thought about the issue of school choice. 53.9 percent of participants were in favor of giving parents more options to choose which public school their child attends, while only 28.8 percent opposed and 17.3 percent were unsure.

Also of note is the political makeup of the respondents, 61.9 percent of whom described themselves as a Democrat, 23.1. percent as an independent, and 12.7 percent as a Republican.

A plurality of participants described themselves as “Very Liberal” (27 percent), while in close second came “Generally Liberal” (26.9). Only 11.1 percent described themselves as “Generally Conservative,” and 10.1 percent described themselves as “Very Conservative.”

Tennesseans for Student Success (TSS), who commissioned the poll, describe themselves as “a statewide network of parents, guardians, teachers and community leaders that champions economic freedom and mobility for all Tennesseans.” They commissioned Victory Phones, a “leader in automated telephony services and data compilation” to conduct the poll.

In an interview with The Tennessee Star Report, former journalist Clint Brewer said he wondered if the poll “under-sampled black Nashville,” as the only two candidates who have won countywide elections, Sharon Hurt and Vivian Wilhoite, sit in single-digit percentages.

“Vivian Wilhoite is an intensely popular politician,” he said, “and for her to below people who have never served in elected office is preposterous.”

Brewer also noted that the state senators running might very well be “top three candidates,” as the poll reflects. “Heidi Campbell has a fresh apparatus that’s in place that’s been tested here recently,” referencing last year’s TN-05 race. Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District and Campbell’s State Senate district overlap to eclipse a significant portion of Davidson County.

Brewer said he thinks that progressive Metro Councilman Freddie O’Connell has a “chance to perform well,” and that Matt Wiltshire being in single digits is not accurate given his ad spending early on in the race.

The TSS did not respond to The Star’s inquiry about the poll by press time.

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Mac Roberts is a reporter at The Tennessee Star. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Heidi Campbell” by Heidi Campbell. Photo “Jeff Yarbro” by Jeff Yarbro. Photo “Freddie O’Connell” by Freddie O’Connell. Background Photo “Nashville City Hall” by Luckiewiki. CC BY-SA 4.0.