Commentary: Biden Gaslights America on the Economy

Biden Speaking

Joe Biden is gaslighting America on the economy. His administration is trying to oversell what has underperformed for several reasons: First, the economy is the one issue that affects most Americans most significantly. Second, Biden is doing worse on virtually every other issue. Finally, time is short: the economy is about to get worse, and the election is close. The administration’s strategy is to get Americans to believe what they hear and doubt what they see.

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More Investors Bet Inflation Is Here to Stay amid Disappointing Price Data

Investor at Work

More investors are projecting a “no landing” scenario where inflation remains elevated but economic growth continues at its current levels following a disappointing inflation report on Tuesday, according to Reuters.

Nearly one out of five fund managers polled by Bank of America predicted a “no landing” scenario as the most likely outcome in the next year, with concerns about such a scenario being intensified by a poor inflation reading that sent U.S. markets into a frenzy on Tuesday, according to Reuters. Tuesday’s consumer price index (CPI) report showed inflation decelerated in January to 3.1% year-over-year from 3.4% in the preceding month, higher than expectations of 2.9%.

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China Finishes Off Year with Sluggish Growth as Economy Fails to Recover

China flag

China’s economy grew at a rate of 5.2% in 2023, failing to return to the same growth of around 6% year-over-year that was common before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The year’s growth was an improvement on the even worse growth in 2022, which totaled just 3% for that year, and economists expect similar sluggish growth in 2024 unless a big policy change occurs, according to the WSJ. A number of different indicators added to the dismal report, including real growth in urban disposable income, which grew at just 4.8% in 2023 and was the lowest year since 2002, barring 2020 and 2022.

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Unemployment Rates Drop in Nearly Every Tennessee County

In a new release on Thursday, the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development (TDLWD) announced March 2023 decreases in the unemployment rates in all but one county. Meigs County, a rural area situated between Chattanooga and Knoxville with a population of around 13,000, was the only one of 95 counties that saw an increase in its unemployment figure – by 0.7 percent.

Meigs County also had the highest unemployment rate of any county, with 5.6 percent. Most of the other top ten highest unemployment rates were in rural counties, including Bledsoe, Haywood, Lake, Scott, Clay, Cocke, Decatur, Lauderdale, and Grundy Counties.

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Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey Announces Lowest Tax Rate in the Nation Going into Effect Next Year

Gov. Doug Ducey (R) announced Thursday that Arizona’s surging economy had paved the way for a historic flat income tax rate to come a year in advance.

“It’s no secret Arizona’s economy is booming. Over the last eight years, we’ve made responsible decisions to live within our means, reduce burdensome government regulations, lower taxes every year and ensure our state remains a great place to live,” Ducey said in a letter to the Arizona Department of Revenue (ADR). “It’s time to deliver lasting tax relief to Arizona families and small businesses so they can keep more of their hard-earned money.”

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Economic Growth in Northeast Pennsylvania Comes with Coal Mine Cleanup

A rush of federal money will boost Pennsylvania’s ability to address abandoned mining land, but the commonwealth will not be able to rely on federal dollars for most of the funding.

The Senate Community, Economic and Recreational Development Committee met on Tuesday to discuss the impact of the anthracite coal industry in northeastern Pennsylvania – both its environmental costs and its economic potential.

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Pennsylvania Business Leaders Alert Lawmakers to Prosperity Hindrances

Pennsylvania’s House Republican Policy Committee on Thursday heard testimony from several small-business executives Thursday suggesting that unemployment compensation (UC) taxes among other issues pose major impediments to economic growth in the Keystone State. 

As The Pennsylvania Daily Star reported this week, Pennsylvania has lagged behind other states in terms of making up economic ground lost during the COVID-19 pandemic. In July 2022, about 6.17 million Pennsylvanians held jobs, a 2.8-percent rise over the same month one year prior. National employment meanwhile increased 3.7 percent during that time. 

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Latest Pennsylvania Budget Estimate Has Modest Economic Growth, Dip in Tax Revenue

Pennsylvania’s economy will have modest real economic growth but also a dip in tax revenues in the next fiscal year as one-time boosts fade away, according to the latest revenue estimates from the Independent Fiscal Office.

The estimate for fiscal year 2022-23 does not assume a recession will hit, but does assume inflation will still be a problem, which cuts away at real gains in areas such as wages and salaries.

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International Monetary Fund Projects Weaker Than Expected 2022 Economic Growth for U.S. and China

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global economic growth forecast for 2022 on Tuesday, citing growing COVID-19 cases, supply chain bottlenecks and soaring inflation.

The IMF now projects global gross domestic (GDP) product to grow 4.4% in 2022, down from 5.9% growth in 2021, according to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report published Tuesday. The IMF projected global GDP would reach 4.9% in its Fall report.

“The global economy enters 2022 in a weaker position than previously expected,” the report said, blaming “downside surprises,” including soaring COVID-19 cases and turbulent markets.

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Commentary: The Flaw in Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying’s Proposal for the Future of Humanity

Bret Weinstein podcast

Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying, evolutionary biologists and visiting fellows at Princeton University, have written a fascinating new book, A Hunter-Gatherer’s Guide to the 21st Century, which Penguin Random House released in September.

The instant New York Times bestseller is riddled with interesting ideas and clever insights, ultimately arriving at a radical conclusion about how humanity must be governed in the future if we are to avoid civilizational collapse. However, the book’s concluding argument is built upon one fundamental economic fallacy, and to understand the flaw in the proposal is to understand how truly catastrophic the pursuit of Weinstein and Heying’s vision would be.

The Fear of Abundance

Weinstein and Heying’s fundamental claim is about the human propensity to seek economic growth, and the ultimate unsustainability of that goal.

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Experts Predict Less Economic Growth, Elevated Inflation for Years to Come

Woman shopping, going up escalator

A survey released Monday found that business experts expect prices and inflation to rise at elevated levels for years to come.

The National Association for Business Economics released the results of a survey of 48 economic experts who downgraded their growth predictions and projected elevated inflation through the second half of 2023, if not later.

“NABE Outlook survey panelists have ramped up their expectations for inflation significantly since September,” said NABE Vice President Julia Coronado, founder and president, MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. “The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, is now expected to rise 6.0% from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to the September forecast of a 5.1% increase over the same period.”

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European Economies Grew Faster Than U.S. As Inflation and Supply Chain Delays Crippled the Country

European economic growth outpaced the U.S. and China as COVID-19 restrictions eased and vaccination rates increased, but supply chain disruptions and inflating prices will hold back expansion in the near future, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.

Gross domestic product in the eurozone increased at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 9.1% in the quarter ending in September, according to the WSJ.  In comparison, the U.S. economy grew at a 2% rate and China grew at just 1%.

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IMF Expects Less Economic Growth from U.S. Amid Supply Chain Chaos

The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast for 2021 on Tuesday, citing supply chain disruptions and pandemic-related health concerns.

In the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook report, released Tuesday, the IMF’s economists share anticipations for global economic growth measuring 5.9% in 2021, a downgrade from their 6% projection in July.

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Report: Private Job Hirings Beat Expectations Amid COVID-19 Scares, Slow Economic Growth

Private companies added 568,000 jobs in September, exceeding expectations as the country faced growing numbers of delta variant cases and slow economic growth, according to a major payroll report.

The 568,000 jobs added is a sharp increase from the 340,000 jobs added in August, the ADP National Employment Report showed. Experts predicted private companies would add 425,000 jobs in September, CNBC reported.

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Commentary: China’s ‘One-Child Policy’ Left at Least One Million Bereaved Parents Childless and Alone in Old Age, with No One to Take Care of Them

Chinese child being held, peaking over shoulder of dad

A child’s death is devastating to all parents. But for Chinese parents, losing an only child can add financial ruin to emotional devastation.

That’s one conclusion of a research project on parental grief I’ve conducted in China since 2016.

From 1980 to 2015, the Chinese government limited couples to one child only. I have interviewed over 100 Chinese parents who started their families during this period and have since lost their only child – whether to illness, accident, suicide or murder. Having passed reproductive age at the time of their child’s death, these couples were unable to have another child.

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U.S. Added Just 266,000 Jobs in April, Far Below Expectations

Worker in restaurant kitchen

The U.S. economy reported an increase of 266,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.1%, according to Department of Labor data released Friday.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 266,000 in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report, and the number of unemployed persons ticked up to 9.8 million. Economists projected a million Americans would be added to payrolls prior to Friday’s report, according to The Wall Street Journal.

“The pieces are really coming together for a burst in activity,” Sarah House, senior economist for Wells Fargo’s Corporate and Investment Bank, told the WSJ. “We’re expecting to see the labor market recovery shift into an even faster gear with the April jobs report.”

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Ohio Lawmakers Form Business First Caucus Aimed to Help Small Business

A group of Ohio lawmakers want to focus on the state’s below average ranking for economic performance by creating a bipartisan Business First Caucus.

The group, headed by state Sens. Mark Romanchuk, R-Ontario, and George Lang, R-West Chester, said it’s aimed at small businesses, staying at the center of major tax and regulatory reform while promoting ideas and legislation that positively impact small business in the state.

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China Factory Activity Shrinks for First Time in Two Years

China’s factory activity shrank in December for the first time in more than two years, an official survey showed Monday, intensifying pressure on Beijing to reverse an economic slowdown as it enters trade talks with the Trump administration. The purchasing managers’ index of the National Bureau of Statistics and an industry group, the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, fell to 49.4 from November’s 50.0 on a 100-point scale. Any reading below 50 shows that activity is contracting. The December figure was the lowest since February 2016 and the first drop since July 2016. In the quarter that ended in September, China’s economic growth sank to a post-global crisis low of 6.5 percent compared with a year earlier. The slowdown occurred despite government efforts to stem the downturn by ordering banks to lend more and by boosting spending on public works construction. Forecasters expect annual growth of about 6.5 percent, down slightly from 2017’s 6.7 percent. But some industry segments, including auto and real estate sales, have suffered more serious declines. “Downward pressure on the economy is still large,” economist Zhang Liqun said in a statement issued with the PMI. Overall orders and exports both contracted, indicating that Chinese factories…

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The Fed Finally Begins Rolling Back its Portfolio

by Robert Romano     The Federal Reserve has dumped an eye-popping $343 billion of U.S. treasuries and mortgage-backed securities since it began its policy normalization program in Sept. 2017. $116 billion of that, or more than a third, has been since Sept. 2018 as the nation’s central bank has begun to accelerate its program. At the same time, the Fed has been hiking the effective federal funds rate, increasing the costs of borrowing by financial institutions. Now, the effective rate stands at 2.2 percent. The pertinent question might be what took it so long? After keeping rates near-zero for the entire Obama administration, and holding onto its dragon’s horde of treasuries and other securities for almost a decade, suddenly the Fed has finally begun unwinding its portfolio—long after economic conditions had settled down after the financial crisis. The high-water mark was reached at the end of 2014, when its holdings were as high as almost $4.3 trillion. It had been a massive $3.5 trillion expansion of its balance sheet going back to Aug. 2007 when the crisis began. Arguably, the Fed has waited until nearly the end of the business cycle to begin unwinding — that is the period…

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Nashville Becoming ‘Chic Urban Playground for the Wealthy,’ Vanderbilt Professor Tells Wall Street Journal

Nashville City at night

The Wall Street Journal has taken notice of how Nashville is becoming gentrified and is in danger of becoming a “chic urban playground for the wealthy.” James Fraser, an urban studies professor at Vanderbilt University, told The Wall Street Journal the city needs 30,000 more units of affordable housing and should spend $1 billion to meet the demand. Working people are being pushed to outer suburbs and rely on buses to reach their jobs, while wealthier people are moving into inner neighborhoods, he said. Affordable housing has long been a benefit of living in the South, said Laurel Graefe, deputy regional executive of the Nashville branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. While corporate incentives and low taxation are still attractive, housing demand has outstripped supply, raising prices. From 2008 to 2018, housing values, based on a weighted measure of all transactions in the housing market, rose 75 percent in Nashville, compared with 33 percent in Charlotte, according to the Brookings Institution. The Wall Street Journal story discussed the trend of tearing down older homes and building “tall skinnies”—multistory homes geared toward wealthier home buyers. Much of the issue is from rapid economic growth, the story says. The Nashville…

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