A pollster who boldly declared that candidate Donald Trump had “no chance” of becoming President now says Senator Lamar Alexander is polling as a virtual lock for reelection in 2020.
Alexander’s longtime pollster, North Star Opinion Research President Whit Ayers, wrote in a Washington Post opinion piece in April, 2016: “A Trump nomination has as much chance of success in the general election as Trump University, or Trump Mortgage, or Trump Shuttle, or Trump Vodka, or Trump Casinos. Trump is an electoral disaster waiting to happen.” That was, of course, before Trump won the White House over Hillary Clinton by a somewhat comfortable electoral margin.
That same pollster is now claiming that an internal poll conducted in advance of an expected announcement by Senator Lamar Alexander that he will seek reelection in 2020 shows Alexander with strong approval ratings among Tennessee voters. The Monday internal polling memo from Ayers to the Senator’s campaign team claimed that Alexander’s favorability rating among likely Republican primary voters is 65 percent, just shy of two-thirds support.
The 600-person survey was conducted Nov. 26-29. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. The 78-year-old Alexander told The Tennessee Star last month that he intended to announce his plans before year end. Based on Ayers’ track record, the Alexander team should be very cautious about his polling data.
Ayers’ poll results are in stark contrast to recent polling conducted by The Tennessee Star. In the Triton Poll of 1038 likely general election voters in September, 2018, Alexander had an approval rating of 32% and a disapproval of 41%. A huge number of voters, particularly for a figure as well known as Alexander, were unsure or did not know how they felt about the Senator. A poll of likely GOP voters in June, 2018 showed Alexander facing a virtual even split among Republicans with an approval/disapproval of 37-38.
Tennessee Star political editor Steve Gill noted in September that Alexander’s low approval figures could be traced to several factors. “First, his colleague Senator Bob Corker regularly attacks President Trump; Corker’s behavior is splashing back on Lamar despite the fact that he’s actually been very supportive of the President and isn’t launching the kinds of cheap shots that Corker constantly spews out. Not calling out Corker and standing more clearly with the President doesn’t endear him to the Trump supporters.”
“Second, those who support Trump among the conservative Republican and independent voter base, including Tea Party activists, see Alexander as too entrenched with the Establishment and too moderate; while the never-Trumpers and liberals see him aligned too closely with the President, so both sides of the ideological aisle are not supportive of Alexander.”
“Finally, in a time when many political leaders express themselves in the raw, bold and blustery manner of professional wrestlers, Lamar has a restrained, thoughtful and genteel manner that leaves some voters wondering if he has the ‘fight’ in him necessary for these combative and rough-and-tumble times.”
Unlike Corker, Alexander is not disliked and has retained a strong level of respect from the voters, Gill added. “Looking towards 2020 he has a lot of work to do in connecting with Tennessee voters in an environment vastly different than he has ever faced,” Gill said. “He has to stay true to who he is while communicating his solidarity and alignment with Trump on key issues while not trying to emulate the President’s tone and tenor. It’s a difficult challenge.”
Should Alexander seek re-election, he will be running as President Donald Trump is also on the ballot. The Tennessee Star September poll indicated that Trump retains a strong measure of support from Tennessee voters. His approval/disapproval numbers are 51.8% approve versus 42.4% disapprove with only 5.8% undecided. Trump’s approval rating is a full twenty points higher than Alexander’s. The strength of the Trump brand in Tennessee was reflected in his support for Marsha Blackburn — which helped her to an 11 point margin of victory over Phil Bredesen in November, Gill notes.
“For Lamar to prevail in a Republican primary in Tennessee in 2020, he will need the full embrace of President Donald Trump — the same President Trump that his pollster said could not win! Nevertheless, at this point Lamar has to be considered a favorite for reelection if only because ‘you can’t beat somebody with nobody’.”
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Time to get the dead wood out of thew swamp of TN. That wood is Alexander. Hasn’t been worth the shoe leather on his feet in decades. Anyone who thinks he’s doing a good is either related to him or is simply not paying attention.
Lamar Alexander is still alive??
Lamar is a great Senator and deserves a great deal of praise and credit. I hope he runs again and Joe Carr gets in the race again so I can see him get his ass kicked, again!
Lamar Alexander is the “nice” granddaddy of the GOP rhino establishment. He is also an elitist with ties to shady people who hold anti-semitic views. He’s too old to walk across Tennessee in a plaid shirt or participate in any other PR stunt a D.C. agency can think up. He should retire while he’s ahead.
Congratulations van. Congressman rose is smart to pick you. Best of luck and merry Christmas to you Meredith and family. From bill and june landrum
Conservative Rating 17*/*. McConnell boot licker that rhino Lamar is.
The first question any reasonable Tennessean must ask themselves is, “why is a 78 year old man (if reelected he’ll be 84 at the end of his term) not spending his golden years at home with his grand and great grandchildren?” Oh that’s right, he’s up in D.C. foisting “education” reform legislation like the Every Student Succeeds Act upon all of our kids. Is he REALLY the best that Tennessee has to offer?
And how about his chiding of President Trump’s attempts to temporarily stop immigration from those seven countries that are hot-beds of Muslim terrorists and have no vetting processes?
No Tennessee can do MUCH MUCH better than Andrew Lamar Alexander! I can already see the T-shits, “Beat Lamar… Vote Joe Anybody but Alexander”. Well, you get the idea.
Of course he will be re-elected. Republicans in Tennessee are to scared to run against him and no Democrat has a chance. It would be nice if as a state we enacted term limits on politicians at every level to two terms
Assumed he was drawing a pension, now i find out it’s a paycheck. Who knew?