by Brandon J. Weichert
Republicans are slated to lose the midterms next month. History is against them. The “experts” don’t think the GOP has a snowball’s chance in Florida. Generic polling shows the Republicans facing a nearly hopeless situation in the House of Representatives, and there is even some question as to whether they can hold their narrow majority in the Senate.
Yet, as Mark Twain once said, “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” The Right faced roughly these same odds and dire predictions exactly two years ago. And while President Trump’s name is not on the ballot, most Republican voters understand what the stakes are: the future of the country, more or less.
I think the GOP will be able to eek out a victory in the midterms.
Think about it: for two years, rather than humbly accept defeat and regroup, the Left has overreached; they’ve gone from “loyal” opposition to deranged insurgents. The late character assassination of the now-confirmed Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh is another example of the Democratic Party’s hubris. So, too, is the Left’s embrace of full-blown socialism (or, excuse me, “democratic socialism”).
Although President Trump’s overall approval ratings may be (if one were to take the polls at face-value) relatively low, his support among Republican voters stands at a whopping 90 percent. What’s more, Trump has enjoyed a string of recent victories that have galvanized the Republican voters at a critical point heading into the November election. Consider the contentious Brett Kavanaugh confirmation the GOP’s “October Surprise.” Nothing begets success like success, and Trump is delivering.
Speaking of which, the Left has been handed a series of stunning defeats, with the Kavanaugh confirmation vote as the most recent, that will depress their base.
Many Americans are rightly disgusted by the Democrats’ underhanded tactics with Kavanaugh. Still more voters—particularly in important swing districts across the country—have benefited from the Trump Administration’s economic policies. Besides, midterms are usually a competition for both sides to turnout a larger share of their base on election day. Republicans have something to turnout for; what do the Democrats have? Trump didn’t get an Obamacare repeal. But, he did get tax cuts, defense spending, defeat of ISIS, regulation rollback, and two solid Supreme Court picks.
That’s inspirational if you’re a rock-ribbed Republican voter. For God’s sake, even Lindsey Graham has found his nerve lately!
Meanwhile, unemployment—whether it be according to the “official” U3 number or the more accurate U6 number (which counts of those Americans who have either given up on finding a job or who are chronically underemployed)—is the lowest it has been in years. Also, wages have started to increase, undermining the Democrats’ insistence that depressed wages and chronic underemployment are “the new normal.” Women, Latinos, African-Americans, and virtually all American workers have seen an increase in their pay.
While Trump may not have the blessing of the elites, he is delivering on his campaign promises—and America is quantifiably doing better because of this. Sure, another recession is possible, or another major war might break out. But the odds of either calamity occurring in the next 30 days are exceptionally small. So don’t be surprised if the Republicans’ momentum shifts into positive territory as voters take stock of good economic news and bad behavior by the Democrats’ far left-wing.
Pundits keep arguing that Americans have not registered the positive effects of Trump’s economic policies. Others claim that Trump supporters are not connecting the need to vote for Republican Party candidates in November with their support for the president. How does what the media is saying make sense? The Republican National Committee has received more campaign donations than the Democratic National Committee has this election cycle; the base is enthused; and Trump’s policies are working. Plus, redistricting still gives the GOP an advantage in November.
As Slate noted in March:
Democrats will need to absolutely run the table to take the House back in November, and will likely continue to need to do so until a real movement to beat back Republican redistricting heats up.
There’s an enthusiasm gap favoring the Republicans in November.
On the other hand, the Democrats are running on a bizarre platform of impeaching the president; raising taxes; and waging Maoist-style persecution campaigns against straight, white males (simply for existing).
What an inspiring platform.
The red tide is coming. And, just like Trump’s “improbable” win in 2016, the Left has only itself to blame.
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Brandon J. Weichert is a contributing editor to American Greatness. A former Republican congressional staffer and national security expert, he also runs “The Weichert Report” (www.theweichertreport.com), an online journal of geopolitics. He holds master’s degree in statecraft and national security from the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C. He is also an associate member of New College at Oxford University and holds a B.A. in political science from DePaul University. He is currently completing a book on national security space policy due out next year.