New York City Loses 277 Residents Every Day, Leading to Expectation the State Will Lose House Seats After 2020 Census

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Where, oh where, did New York City’s population go?

New York City leads all metro areas as the largest net loser of population, with 277 people moving every single day — more than double from 132 one year ago, Bloomberg News said.

Los Angeles and Chicago were next with daily losses of 201 and 161, based on 2018 Census data on migration flows.

New York is experiencing the biggest net outflow, but the loss is being shored up by international migrant inflows. From July 2017 to July 2018, nearly 200,000 moved out, while nearly 100,000 net international migrants moved in.

Migration excludes the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths. In 10 of the top 100 metros, deaths exceeded births. Migration came from international and domestic moves.

You can do your own migration flow mapping from the Census here.

A loss of population affects the size of a state’s delegation in the U.S. House: a large enough gain means more representatives, while a large enough loss equates to a loss. The delegation size is calculated after each decennial Census; the next is in 2020.

The number of representatives overall is set at 435. New York currently has 27, according to the House website.

Redistricting often leads to conflicts and charges of gerrymandering.

The Supreme Court ruled 5-4 along ideological lines in June that federal judges have no authority to block politically gerrymandered maps, Battleground State News reported.

The National Republican Redistricting Trust filed a lawsuit aimed at blocking a redistricting commission that Michigan voters approved last year, The Michigan Star said.

Kyle Kondik of Rasmussen Reports recently published a commentary discussing the potential landscape for redistricting following the 2020 Census. The article is here.

Republicans still carry an advantage in controlling local redistricting efforts, but not quite as much as they did in 2010, he said.

For instance, two of the few states where Democrats actually controlled redistricting after 2010 were in Arkansas and West Virginia; now Republicans control those states, but they already hold all seven seats between them.

Meanwhile, Republicans have lost their dominance in some key places. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin now have Democratic governors, blunting the GOP gerrymandering power from a decade ago (the Keystone State’s Democratic-controlled Supreme Court unwound the GOP gerrymander in advance of 2018).

Still, there will be lots of redistricting required because of some states gaining or losing seats.

Political consulting firm Election Data Services in December 2018 published a list of states it expects to either gain or lose districts based on population trends heading into 2020 using Census numbers.

States Gaining Districts (7)

Arizona +1 (from 9 to 10)

Colorado +1 (from 7 to 8)

Florida +2 (from 27 to 29)

Montana +1 (from At-large to 2)

North Carolina +1 (from 13 to 14)

Oregon +1 (from 5 to 6)

Texas +3 (from 36 to 39)

 

States Losing Districts (8 or 10)

Alabama -1 (from 7 to 6)

California -1 or even (from 53 to 52 or no change)

Illinois -1 (from 18 to 17)

Michigan -1 (from 14 to 13)

Minnesota -1 or even (from 8 to 7 or no change)

New York -2 (from 27 to 25)

Ohio -1 (from 16 to 15)

Pennsylvania -1 (from 18 to 17)

Rhode Island -1 (from 2 to 1)

West Virginia -1 (from 3 to 2)

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Jason M. Reynolds has more than 20 years’ experience as a journalist at outlets of all sizes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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