Model Lowers Projected Tennessee Coronavirus Deaths by More Than 2,000


A popular coronavirus model has lowered its total projected deaths for Tennessee by more than 2,000 since Gov. Bill Lee announced a statewide shelter-in-place order.

As of April 2, the University of Washington Institute for Health and Metrics Evaluation (IHME) predicted that Tennessee would have 3,259 deaths over the next four months. The IHME model estimated that the virus would reach its peak in the state on April 20 and would result in 159 fatalities in a single day.

See the full chart at (select “Tennessee”)

The model now predicts that Tennessee will experience 584 COVID-19 deaths over the next four months – a drop of 2,675 projected deaths since last week. On Sunday, the model was predicting 1,000-plus deaths in Tennessee.

Additionally, the pandemic is now predicted to reach its peak on April 18 in Tennessee and estimates that the state will have 25 deaths on that day, a decrease of 134 since last week.

The model predicts that Tennessee will need 245 ICU beds when the state reaches peak resource use, compared to last week’s prediction that the state would need 2,301 ICU beds.

Since last week’s predictions, Gov. Lee has issued a mandatory statewide stay-at-home order. The order was updated from a prior executive order that urged, but didn’t require, Tennesseans to stay home.

Lee said he made the decision to issue a mandatory stay-at-home order based on traffic and cell-phone data that indicated movement across the state was actually increasing.

“In recent days we have seen data indicating that movement may be increasing and we must get these numbers trending back down. I have updated my previous executive order to clearly require that Tennesseans stay at home unless they are carrying out essential activities,” Lee said in a statement.

As of Monday, Tennessee had 3,802 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 65 fatalities, and had tested 47,350 individuals for the virus, according to the Department of Health.

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Anthony Gockowski is managing editor of The Minnesota Sun and The Ohio Star. Follow Anthony on Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].







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5 Thoughts to “Model Lowers Projected Tennessee Coronavirus Deaths by More Than 2,000”

  1. […] model has pushed up Tennessee’s projected coronavirus peak for hospital resources by one day from April 18 to April […]

  2. CCW

    This cannot be true. The evil southland is responsible for the covid19 deaths of thousands of poor and minorities because of discrimination. This is the new DNC line being used with MSM and people like Minnesotan Senator Klobuchar. She also proclaimed today that evil Trump was responsible for no children-sized masked being delivered to hospitals in her purview. She apparently has no clue that masks are all adult sized because they are for workers, nurses, doctors, etc., in said hospitals.

  3. lb

    Gov Lee needs to OPEN TN for Easter weekend. There is NO reason for this continued POLICE STATE LOCKDOWN other than there is a bad FLU going around. All the “experts” have been miserable FAILURES and proven to be HYSTERICAL Doom Addicts.
    Time to push them to the sidelines and let Americans get back to Work and back to Living or REBUILDING the Lives that have been destroyed because of incompetents who relied solely on “models” AKA GUESSES

    1. Cannoneer2

      In my experience as a former government employee, people like you gripe and complain about government, right up to the point where you acutely need government’s service. Then you’ll be the loudmouth in line, trying to shove his/her way to the front. Be thankful that these folks are trying to make an effort, and that things seem to be better than they first appeared.

    2. 83ragtop50

      lb – You are 100% correct.