A popular coronavirus model has lowered its total projected deaths for Tennessee by more than 2,000 since Gov. Bill Lee announced a statewide shelter-in-place order.
As of April 2, the University of Washington Institute for Health and Metrics Evaluation (IHME) predicted that Tennessee would have 3,259 deaths over the next four months. The IHME model estimated that the virus would reach its peak in the state on April 20 and would result in 159 fatalities in a single day.
The model now predicts that Tennessee will experience 584 COVID-19 deaths over the next four months – a drop of 2,675 projected deaths since last week. On Sunday, the model was predicting 1,000-plus deaths in Tennessee.
Additionally, the pandemic is now predicted to reach its peak on April 18 in Tennessee and estimates that the state will have 25 deaths on that day, a decrease of 134 since last week.
The model predicts that Tennessee will need 245 ICU beds when the state reaches peak resource use, compared to last week’s prediction that the state would need 2,301 ICU beds.
Since last week’s predictions, Gov. Lee has issued a mandatory statewide stay-at-home order. The order was updated from a prior executive order that urged, but didn’t require, Tennesseans to stay home.
Lee said he made the decision to issue a mandatory stay-at-home order based on traffic and cell-phone data that indicated movement across the state was actually increasing.
“In recent days we have seen data indicating that movement may be increasing and we must get these numbers trending back down. I have updated my previous executive order to clearly require that Tennesseans stay at home unless they are carrying out essential activities,” Lee said in a statement.
As of Monday, Tennessee had 3,802 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 65 fatalities, and had tested 47,350 individuals for the virus, according to the Department of Health.
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