Study Says Ohio Will Hit COVID-19 Peak Wednesday, with Cases and Deaths Far Below DeWine’s Apocalyptic Forecasts That Shut State Down


A health institute that has been making national and state COVID-19 forecasts revised its model for Ohio, suggesting that the peak will be hit Wednesday, leaving far fewer cases and deaths than the gruesome numbers painted by Gov. Mike DeWine’s administration.

The Sandusky Register reported on the model update Monday.

The forecaster is the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHMC), and it is a model that has been cited by many state and federal officials, including President Donald Trump.

The new forecast says Ohio’s COVID-19 outbreak will peak in its effect on hospital resources tomorrow and will peak in daily deaths on April 12, the Register said. It predicts 544 coronavirus deaths by Aug. 4.

See the full chart at (select “Ohio”)

The Ohio model is available here.

The model estimates the dates at which hospital resources like beds and ventilators will be most needed, which it says is tomorrow. The model says Ohio has 14,290 available beds, and as of tomorrow will be using only 1,372 beds.

There are 1,238 ICU beds in Ohio, and as of tomorrow, only 262 will be needed. Only 223 invasive ventilators will be necessary tomorrow.

The Ohio Star has extensively reported on the lack of transparency involved in the decisions by DeWine and Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton in shutting down the state for two weeks and sending hundreds of thousands to unemployment lines.

According to a Monday story, the state is under a stay-at-home order until May 1, five days after Acton says will be the peak — April 25. Acton’s slides shown at presentations keep sliding around, with one showing the murky data comes from Ohio State University’s Infectious Disease Institute (IDI). However, ODH has not specifically named the epidemiologists who are responsible for the data in the projections, nor has it provided any details on the assumptions and methodology behind these projections.

The most recent slide suggests there would have been around 2,000 new cases this past Sunday, when there were only 304, according to data from the OHD website, as tracked in the COVID-19 project website.

On March 26, Acton said there could be up to 8,000 new cases a day by May 1.

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Jason M. Reynolds has more than 20 years’ experience as a journalist at outlets of all sizes.





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23 Thoughts to “Study Says Ohio Will Hit COVID-19 Peak Wednesday, with Cases and Deaths Far Below DeWine’s Apocalyptic Forecasts That Shut State Down”

  1. A former OSU researcher

    “A ship in the harbor is safe, but that’s not what ships are for.” Author and professor John A. Shedd.

  2. Emily Love

    Conspiracy theories won’t change the truth: If DeWine and Acton had not taken the steps they did, Ohio’s numbers would be much higher. As it is, people are dead in our state, and all your “conspiracy against the President” rant won’t change the fact that he knew it was coming, he dismantled the program that could have prevented those deaths, and then he lied about the effect it would have. God, Carla Feig, can you get your head out of your ass?

  3. Jan

    Gov. Dewine saved many Ohio lives!! We may not like the shut down, but he and Dr. Acton are saving lives!! Stay Home and social distance!! This is irresponsible reporting at its best!!

  4. Anna

    The UW models are actually based on the measures imposed in Wuhan so they assume a very high level of social distancing in place until the end of May. Also, they are updated in real-time based on reported cases so the fact that we are projected to remain below hospital capacity now means that the measures are working….not that the original forecasts are wildly inaccurate… The Ohio health department clearly didn’t over react, they reacted enough to get us to this point! .

  5. Petra

    Wow. Some people are never happy. I truly believe Mike DeWine did what he thought necessary to keep Ohioans safe. I am so thankful he took action swiftly unlike so many other governors as well as the President.

  6. Jim

    Carla..Mike Dewine did this spitefully with the goal to destroy trump? I have a newsflash for you…Mike Dewine is a Republican you dipshit. Just because you have no care about saving peoples lives doesn’t mean that there are not other people that do.

    And all those other countries of the world that were using the SAME lockdown and distancing procedures, it was all just a worldwide conspiracy, because all those people in Malta, Burkina Faso, and Kyrgyzstan were all saying many of our people do we have to let die to make Trump look bad.

    1. Amanda

      I feel like no matter what a governor does, someone, somewhere will be upset. Either they overreacted, or they underestimated… but at the end of the day, I’m glad WE (because I live in Cleveland) did what we did. We’ll be able to open everything up well before everyone else; and I’m thankful we’re not New York, Detroit, New Orleans, San Diego, or the state of Florida. Side bar—I didn’t vote for DeWine, and I disagree with him on every other issue outside of this. But thank God the guy took this seriously. Ohio will walk away with nothing more than a small bruise, and we’ll all get back to work and school by May while the rest of the country stays shit down through the summer.

  7. Jake Wonder

    Sound’s like dewine needs to shut down the whole state including essential except grocery stores and of course hospitals and first responders. Not providers for those essential companies.

  8. Barry J Sutherland

    DeWine and Acton were both right what they did. Those numbers ( if they would not have acted swiftly early ) would have been accurate. By slowly shutting down the state DeWine and Acton avoided there prediction. But them telling the worse case scenario may have saved the state from a total disaster. Bitch all you want…………….DeWine and Acton were ahead of a huge disaster.

  9. #InThisTogether

    Seriously, what’s wrong with you! It is because he “overreacted” that we are seeing the flattening of the curve at this time. I, for one, am thankful that he “overreacted.”

    1. I have a father who had a liver transplant 4 yrs ago. He is one of the compromised people that can not afford to get this virus. With that being said, I don’t agree with you and many others. I feel like the information that has been given to our public officials was tainted to begin with. We are dealing with very vindictive people who have their own agenda and that is what drives them and I don’t believe that agenda includes our old people and our compromised people.
      I believe dewine went on the only info he had to go with. But the model that he folllowed along with many other states is now looking Like it was over exaggerated. They say it’s because we had no other models to go off of. Either way…. now we know that it’s exaggerated dates and deaths so now we need to make our own choices which will make models for the next pandemic.

      People, wake up!!!’n this was done spitefully and it’s goal was to destroy trump. Whether it be China or Nancy pelosi who unleashed this virus on its path or who is giving such bad info on how to deal with it.., it needs to stop here!! believe it!!! They are not worried about our welfare. I for one do not want to live thru a Great Depression. It’s time we go back to work!!! Stop the hype! Try to overcome this freaking economical nightmare that has been handed to us. Demand the truth about this whole situation. Let the World get back to nirmal, if possible. God bless America!!!!

      1. Shelly

        Anything that gets thrown out there and towards Pressient Trump by whoever sends it JUST MAKES HiM look better for 2020 in my opinion and alot another people’s opinions as well.

      2. Nancy Curry

        I just went through a Great Depression reading you stupid comment! Honestly didn’t think people could be so gullible… guess I was wrong!

  10. David Helms

    I believe the quick response by Gov. Dewine and Dr. Acton has helped tremendously in lowering our peak. This article tries to flip on them and basically states they were hasty in their projections and decision making. Can we not just be thankful and not try to politicize every effort set forth. Wake up America!

    1. Ken

      I am thankful for them, unfortunately, once again a politically biased opinion piece in order to prove someone right.i If this had been handled on a national al level, Ohio would be much worse off. This was a politically biased opinion.

  11. Allen buckamneer

    What is wrong with you people it sounds to me like you are complaining that we haven’t had the deaths that were expected and that gov dewine lied to us and blew stuff out of perportion . well in my eyes he saved alot of lives by the measures he ordered we could be new york City so shut up and do what your told your the kind of person who spreads this shit

    1. John

      You are right on!!!

  12. Elizabeth Melvin

    Even tho it’s difficult being separated from friends and lived ones, I’m thankful our governor and administration have been proactive, taking these steps. Thank you Ohio!

  13. Maggie

    I am an Ohioan and appreciate their quick action and leadership to keep me and my family safe. Don’t care about their graphs. #ohiostrong

  14. Thanksalotloser

    Dewine overreacted? Who would have thought ! 😒

    1. Former OSU researcher

      I understand that “fear” is a powerful emotion and most individuals make their decisions based on “how they feel”. For those open to being informed of the solid research-based facts, please continue reading. 99% of patients infected with the Coronavirus show symptoms in 11.5 days (average is 5.1 days before symptoms are experienced) and 15% – 20% of those individuals require hospitalization. All non-essential businesses have been closed for 17 days, so whomever was infected before this “Shelter in Place” would have developed symptoms by now and 15% – 20% of those people would have been hospitalized by this time. We currently have less than 1650 patients hospitalized statewide. Our “Shelter In Place” orders occurred AFTER New York’s and New Jersey’s. We have 5512 confirmed cases while New York and New Jersey have 160,000 and 51,000 confirmed cases, respectively. Of the over 41,000 individuals had been tested for Coronavirus as of April 5th only 3907 tested positive. We have 11.39 million people and only a little more than 5500 confirmed cases. You do the math. Lastly, 80% of the individuals infected experience mild or no symptoms and over 98% of the infected individuals will recover. Furthermore, over 1100 deaths occur from motor vehicle accidents in Ohio every year. Currently, we have 213 deaths attributed to Coronavirus. The result of this complete state “shut down” is that many small businesses will close permanently and many jobs will be permanently lost. Lastly, Dr. Acton in her March 23rd presentation definitely stated that Ohio would be at 8,000 confirmed cases per day within one to one and one-half weeks, because we were lagging New York by that time period. It has been over 3 weeks since Ohio started shutting down restaurants, bars, gyms, nail and hair salons and we are to date 2,500 confirmed cases short of 8000 total confirmed cases in Ohio.

  15. Suzan shinn

    Good job Ohio and thank you to our governor and healthcare workers!

    1. lisa hartsell

      Okay but you can believe that if he had not shut us down the casualties and sickness would be way higher. This has been for our protection.