IHME Model Drastically Lowers U.S. Coronavirus Death Projections to 60,415

by Andrew Kerr


Seven states will have seen their peak hospital resource use come and go by the end of Wednesday, according to a leading coronavirus projection model that has informed the White House’s response to the pandemic.

New York, Michigan and Louisiana, which have seen some of the worst coronavirus outbreaks in the United States, are among the states projected to reach peak hospital resource usage by the end of Wednesday, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model. Vermont, Washington, Colorado and Ohio are also projected to reach their peak hospital resource use by the end of the day, the model shows.

The IHME has drastically reduced its projections in recent days on the hospital resources needed to combat coronavirus at its peak spread in the United States. The Washington-based institute updated its model on Wednesday showing that it projects that 94,249 hospital beds will be needed nationwide at the virus’s peak, a 64% reduction from the model’s April 1 projection that 262,092 hospital beds would be needed.

The IHME has also reduced its projected number of nationwide COVID-19 deaths by the beginning of August to 60,415, a 35% decrease from the 93,531 nationwide deaths its model had projected on April 1.

The IHME expects New York, which has seen the worst coronavirus outbreak in the country with 140,000 confirmed cases as of Wednesday morning, to hit peak hospital resource use on Wednesday. New York’s peak daily deaths are expected to arrive on Thursday with a projected 780 fatalities, the institute’s model shows.

Michigan, which has seen the third-most confirmed coronavirus cases in the country, reached peak hospital resource usage on Tuesday and will reach peak daily fatalities on Thursday, according to the IHME model.

And the model expects that Louisiana, which has the fifth-most confirmed cases in the country, will hit its peak hospital resource usage on Saturday after hitting its peak daily fatalities on Tuesday.

Delaware and Washington, D.C., are expected to reach peak hospital resource usage on Thursday, the IHME model shows.

The IHME model projects that 25 states and Washington, D.C., will have seen their peak hospital resource usage come and go by next Friday.

The director of the IHME, Dr. Christopher Murray, told reporters on Monday that the recent reductions in the IHME’s model are largely driven by encouraging figures from Italy and Spain showing that peak daily coronavirus deaths arrived sooner than previously predicted, which suggests that social distancing policies have had an impact on containing the spread of the virus.

However, Murray said the promising numbers should not be seen as an excuse to ease up on social distancing measures.

“If you ease up prematurely, the epidemic can rebound right back to the level we’re at right now in a matter of weeks,” Murray said. “The potential for a rebound is enormous if we let up on social distancing.”

Murray said the debate on when to ease up on stay-at-home orders shouldn’t begin until “after June.”

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Andrew Kerr is a reporter at Daily Caller News Foundation.











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2 Thoughts to “IHME Model Drastically Lowers U.S. Coronavirus Death Projections to 60,415”

  1. 83ragtop50

    In my opinion the outlandish predictions based on flawed models and even worse assumptions were a great excuse for “our” government to take on dictatorial powers that will cripple the USA for many years to come. Political hacks should not have the authority to control private citizens. The Tennessee legislators have abdicated all power to the governor while apparently cowering at home. How disgusting. They were elected to lead not follow. The so-called experts will claim that their Draconian measures saved the world but they cannot prove it and those Americans who treat government as god will just continue to give up more and more of their freedoms in exchange for a very false sense of security. Disgusting.

    1. Ralph


      Here’s how I would play it if I were strategizing for the Left – I would play out the lock down orders and collapse of both the economy and health care to the hilt…imposing as much misery as possible.

      Then, I would swiftly pivot my messaging and blame the Right for overreacting in the face of data all along that indicated this was less infectious and less lethal that common flu. At a stroke, the Left would win in a landslide, not least of which is Tennessee GA.