New Update to IHME Model Shows Both the Peak Day for Hospital Resources and Fatalities Have Passed in Ohio


The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model has updated its Ohio projection to show that both the peak hospital resource day and highest fatality day have already happened.

The updated model shows that April 8 were the peak days in Ohio for these categories. Earlier this week, IHME predicted that the peak day for fatalities in the state was April 12 with 26. April 12 is now projected 23 deaths.

On the peak day two days ago, the IHME model said that Ohio needed to have 1,213 beds, including 224 for the intensive care unit (ICU). Ohio had plenty of beds on hand as the state had 14,290 beds, including 1,238 ICU beds.

The April 7 model update had the beds needed in Ohio at 1,205, and an additional 237 for the ICU.

IHME described these the changes to the April 10 updates:

The data and knowledge landscape on COVID-19 epidemic patterns, health care demand or resource gaps, government response, and the effects of social distancing measures are rapidly evolving worldwide. At IHME, we strive to incorporate new evidence as soon as it becomes available. Our aim is to produce the best possible predictions given what we know today – and to continuously improve these estimates to support further gains against COVID-19 tomorrow.

Today’s release of COVID-19 predictions for deaths and hospital use represents a combination of substantial data additions, notably on ICU capacity for many countries in the European Economic Area (EEA), and model refinements.

Even though the IHME model shows the peak of the virus has come and gone in Ohio, Gov. Mike DeWine said Thursday there is a personal protective equipment (PPE) shortage.

“I want to make a public plea to everyone using these masks – every mask is precious, please don’t throw them away,” the governor said. “We are trying to get more N95 masks in Ohio, but we still don’t have enough. When you throw a mask away you are depriving someone else of having a mask because we only have so many.”

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Zachery Schmidt is the digital editor of Star News Digital Media. If you have any tips, email Zachery at [email protected] 








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