Ohio Coronavirus Numbers Continue to Fall Short of Projections


The number of confirmed cases in Ohio continues to be far below original estimates, despite earlier predictions for that number to be in the high thousands.

Ohio averaged around 370 new confirmed cases per day for the past five days, according to data from the COVID Tracking Project. That number is far below the 10,000 new confirmed cases per day Ohio Health Director Dr. Amy Acton predicted in late March.

Acton said on March 27 that the number of confirmed cases was expected to reach peak in the state on April 19 at 10,000 new cases per day, even with practices to mitigate the spread of the virus in place. During the same press conference, she predicted a peak of 51,000 new cases per day in the state without preventative action.

“There is no healthcare system in the world that could take on this virus, as it was built,” Acton said during the press conference in March.

There are currently 8,858 confirmed cases of the coronavirus in Ohio, according to the most recent data from the Ohio Department of Health. That number is up 414 cases from Thursday. There was also an increase of 623 new cases from Wednesday to Thursday and 638 new cases from Tuesday to Wednesday, based on historical data from the COVID Tracking Project.

The death toll for the state is currently 418.

The current data is also far below the predictions of University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predictions. IHME estimated roughly 120,00 deaths from COVID-19 at peak. According to its adjusted data, Ohio passed peak deaths on April 14, at 50 deaths.

IHME also predicted that roughly 4,000 of the more than 14,000 of hospital beds in Ohio would be needed. As of Friday, it estimates that just more than 1,200 beds would be needed, and that Ohio had passed peak resource use earlier in the week.

According to data from the Ohio Department of Health, there have been 2,424 cumulative hospitalizations from the coronavirus in the state. Ohio does not release the data for current hospitalizations.

IHME does not have data for confirmed cases.

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine said this week that May 1 is the current projected data for beginning to reopen Ohio’s economy.

“We must continue to assume that everyone has this disease because it is not going away until we have a vaccine,” DeWine said in a statement on Friday. “As we gradually, carefully, and responsibly start to reopen Ohio, it will be important that we all continue to work together to protect each other.”

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Jordyn Pair is a reporter with The Michigan Star. Follow her on Twitter at @JordynPair. Email her at [email protected]







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