Mortality Rate Not Listed as Factor in Davidson County’s Reopening Metrics Plan

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Davidson County has a plan for reopening the city from COVID-19. This plan uses a number of data points including the status of transmission rate, 14-day new case trend, public health capacity, testing capacity, and the number of regular hospital beds and ICU beds.

However, a key metric that is missing from the county’s reopening plan is mortality rate.

Davidson County’s “Reopening Key Metrics” page is available here.

The website says it is updated multiple times per day, but that does not extend to reporting how many have died.

If you want to learn how many people have died of the disease in Davidson County, head over to the Tennessee Unified Command COVID-19 page, which has a county-by-county map and an abundance of statistics. The page, available here, reports 164 deaths in Davidson County. The county has had 15,342 positive cases and 129,757 negative cases.

You can find out the number of deaths from the city, but that is on a different webpage, not the page that deals with reopening. It is available here.

The mortality rate is calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases, Johns Hopkins University of Medicine says.

Dividing the Unified Command’s 164 deaths by 15,342 case rate yields a mortality rate of 1.07. That puts the city far below the national rate of 3.9 percent and more in line with the nations of Venezuela, Australia, Cabo Verde and Saudi Arabia, all of which have mortality rates of 1.0, according to Johns Hopkins. The United States does not place anywhere near the highest mortality rate — the “distinction” of the highest rate goes to Yemen, with a 28.2 percent mortality rate.

Davidson County has been on a “Modified Phase II” reopening plan since July 3, according to a city webpage here called “Roadmap for Reopening Nashville.” The page lists the restrictions, such as stores operating at three-quarters capacity and no gatherings of over 25 people.

Among the things Metro Nashville does choose to reveal on its “Reopening Key Metrics” page, the transmission rate as of Thursday was 1.2. A rate of 1.0 is the goal, with more than 1.0 meaning the virus is spreading and a rate of less than 1.0 means the spread is slowing.

Could the lack of mortality data be tied to a lack of testing data? That is not the case.

The website says their goal is to conduct 4,667 tests per week. Last week, they had tested 14,816 people.

The goal is to have 20 percent of ICU beds available; currently, 17 percent are available. However, the website does not say how much capacity COVID-19 patients are taking.

That is similar to the situation with regular hospital beds: 18 percent capacity is available, and the goal is 20 percent capacity. The website does not tell how many of those patients have COVID-19.

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Jason M. Reynolds has more than 20 years’ experience as a journalist at outlets of all sizes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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5 Thoughts to “Mortality Rate Not Listed as Factor in Davidson County’s Reopening Metrics Plan”

  1. James Brewer

    Maybe Gov. Lee can borrow Kristi Noem’s gonads and take control of his state instead of fiddling while health departments ruins it.

  2. Julie

    There is a difference of dying of or dying with COVID. Earlier this week Fox 35 in Orlando started to look into their COVID data and found 300 reportable sites had 100% positivity rate (and many more in the high 90s) meaning 100% of the people tested had COVID. Keep in mind these are lay people journalists in FL finding this stuff not data analysts. They also started to look at some of the deaths, specifically young people, and found a motorcycle crash victim in his 20s listed as a COVID death. Why? Because hospitals are getting more money coding the death as a COVID death vs. other deaths. These numbers were being reported directly to the CDC. Why did no one at the CDC question this data? I have no doubt this is happening across the country. https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/fox-35-investigates-florida-department-of-health-says-some-labs-have-not-reported-negative-covid-19-results

  3. Kevin

    Oh stop it! You can’t go against the all knowing, all seeing, all powerful Wizard of Shnoz.
    OK, I know, Mini Cooper’s nose isn’t really that big, as noses go, but he sure sticks it where it doesn’t belong! Perhaps, it’s time that the citizens of Davidson County tell him where to stick it! :o) RECALL JOHN COOPER!

    But, back on track, this is just another form of data selection bias, something that true scientists strive to avoid like the plague (or Covid-19). Politicians however call it something different, making the numbers fit the story and the story fit the agenda! And they seem to have perfected the process!

    At the heart of it lies one big question, can the citizens of Nashville trust John Cooper and the people that he has placed in key positions? I believe that the answer to that question is is NO.

  4. Rick

    Numbers and statistics by our crooked Mayor Coward Cooper and his minion sidekick Health Dept sidekick Caldwell.

  5. David S. Blackwell RN, BSN

    This is the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever seen in my career. People need to get back to work and keep their hands washed. If they are sick, they should stay home, like the old days. There are over 200 viruses that cause respiratory distress. Obviously, those that are weakened in their immunity with comorbidity and age are at higher risk. But that has always been the case. This is nothing more than medical Tyranny and must stop immediately. This is total BS.

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