Crom Carmichael Outlines How Polling Organizations Are Not Changing to Meet the Dynamics of Today

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Live from Music Row Wednesday morning on The Tennessee Star Report with Michael Patrick Leahy – broadcast on Nashville’s Talk Radio 98.3 and 1510 WLAC weekdays from 5:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m. –  host Leahy welcomed the original all-star panelist Crom Carmichael to the studio to outline how polling organizations are not changing to meet the dynamics of today.

Leahy: Wolf Blitzer on CNN, interviewed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and he pressed her hard on some questions. Basically, he said, hey, why aren’t you working with the Republicans on COVID-19 relief? And she basically said, you are really a Republican apologist Wolf. And he was incredulous. How could the Speaker call Wolf Blitzer a Republican apologist?

Carmichael: Well, what you’re seeing here is that I think the Trump administration is doing a very good job. Let me say this Kayleigh McEnany, she is a very very smart person. Very smart. And I think that what they’re doing is they are sending lots of very very specific information to the news media and then challenging the news media on why they are misreporting.

Leahy: Ahhh.

Carmichael: That’s what I’ve had is going on.

Leahy: That explains it.

Carmichael: I think that’s what’s going on. I think they’re shaming CNN into reporting the facts. Because here are the facts. The Republicans and the Trump administration are now up to be willing to spend $ 1.8 trillion. 1.8 trillion. Which by the way, will be 100 percent deficit spending. They’re spending 1.8 trillion. But that money will go specifically to people who have actually been harmed by the the the COVOD policies. It’s small businesses.

It’s individuals. But it’s big businesses that have lots of employees that will have to get laid off if they don’t support them like the airline industry. And perhaps the hotel industry. But it’s going to people. It’s going to help people. Pelosi on the other hand, wants big blocks of money to go to state and local governments to shore up historically bad policies. She also wants to use COVID to change election laws, which has nothing to do with COVID.

And the Trump administration to his great credit is standing firm saying no, we’re going to help people. We’re not going to help governments and we’re not going to let you use this to force a bunch of changes on election law that couldn’t stand up if you tried to pass them individually. And I think that what’s happened. I think that the Trump administration has been sending very very specific information.

Leahy: It’s a very good explanation because otherwise, I can’t figure it out. She literally said this to CNN. CNN is the network that is essentially they’re all Democratic operatives with bylines.

Carmichael: And so is MSNBC.

Leahy: They’re all that way. She said I’m going to quote her exactly when Wolf Blitzer asked her a simple question. Why aren’t you cutting a deal with the Republicans? Seemed reasonable on COVID-19 relief. She said, “what I say to you is, I don’t know why you’re always an apologist and many of your colleague’s apologists for the Republican position.” I mean that is insane.

Carmichael: Well, apparently she went on to say that she’s not going to let Trump put his name on the check. (Leahy laughs) That’s another thing that she has apparently said. So so this is a person who is incredibly vain. Pelosi has never been an effective person for the people.

Leahy: No.

Carmichael: She’s been very effective for the union thugs and I’m talking about the leaders of the unions, that she can pick up the phone and tell them where to spend their money.

Leahy: Jeff texted us and says Blitzer’s attitude might be a signal that the media knows Trump will win and they’re buying back their opposition. I’m not sure if I agree with that.

Carmichael: Well let me say this Jeff is making a very interesting point because all this stuff, you know, this is very similar to 2016 except there’s a lot of other things going on under the surface and in my opinion. That is going on under the surface. And I will say this, I believe that the state polls will be an average of six points off in Trump’s favor.

Leahy: The state polls. And why do you believe that?

Carmichael: Because I think that I think that they’re sampling I think their sampling is that bad. And I think they know it. This used to happen in Tennessee. Back in 1994, we had three statewide races and they had Bredesen and Sundquist as a toss-up. They had Frist up by six. They had Thompson up by 12. I remember this because it was so interesting.

Leahy: It wasn’t Bredesen and some Sundquist was it?

Carmichael: It was Bredesen and Sundquist in 1994.

Leahy: Oh when Bredesen one?

Carmichael: No Sundquist won. Sundquist beat beat Bredesen in ’94.

Leahy: Okay.

Carmichael: And he was up by three. And so Teddy Bart called it a toss-up.

Leahy: And Bredesen subsequently succeeded.

Carmichael: So yes, yes, and so then Teddy said that the Frist-Sasser race is at six points and that Sasser still had a chance. And they said looks like Thompson is going to win. And I said Teddy, let me say that Sundquist will win by more than 10. And Frist will win by more than 12. And Thompson will win by more than 18. And Teddy said, how can you say that? And I said because that particular polling organization is always wrong by the same amount every time.

And it turned out that that that I was correct. But it wasn’t because I was some genius, it was I just looked at the history of that particular polling organization. Then they called into the show and got mad at me for calling them corrupt. And I said what let me change that you’re either incompetent or you’re corrupt. Which is it? (Leahy laughs) And I said because you’re always off by the same you’re always off in the same direction by the same amount and you would adjust if you could.

Leahy: They really loved that didn’t when they?

Carmichael: And they said, well you have to understand we do the poll for The Tennessean. And I said, how does that work? They said they tell us who to poll. I said, oh, excuse me. I take that back. The Tennessean is either corrupt or incompetent.

Leahy: And also about to go out of business may I add.

Carmichael: So what I’m saying, is that what you have now is that you have the same dynamic at work in these polling organizations are not changing to meet the dynamics of today.

Leahy: And now standing point. A couple of things I want to raise. First the value of institutional memory. Crom that you just pointed out something that many people here in Nashville would not have known. And I’d forgotten it but you’re quite right. In ’94 Sundquist did beat Bredesen. And then he subsequently went on to win the governorship for two terms.

Carmichael: And I was I had supported Sundquist and to my great chagrin because then in the second term he tried to pass an income tax. Now in a kind of an in a kind of ironic way, Sundquist has done more in trying to do that. And by really trying to do that, he did more to help the Republican Party than any person in the history of the state because he outed all the Democrats who were secretly for an income tax.

Leahy: Yeah.

Carmichael: Because they thought they had it and they were going to ram it through and then it turned out that they all exposed themselves for being for an income tax but didn’t have it as it turned out. And so in the next three cycles, all of those Democrats in the House and the Senate who are for the income tax or many of them lost their re-election.

Leahy: Exactly.

Carmicheal: Now, Bredesen to his great credit, he came in and fixed TennCare which Sundquist didn’t have a clue how to fix. And so you have to give credit where credit’s due. Phil Bredesen was an excellent governor of Tennessee. I’m glad he lost as a Senator. I’m glad he lost for two reasons. One is I happen to have a great deal of respect for Phil Bredesen and he would have hated being in Washington in this environment.

He would have hated it. So I’m happy for him that he lost. He may not be by but I am. And the other is that just for purely partisan reasons I don’t want a federal government that tells everybody here in Tennessee that we will live the way that the people from California and Nancy Pelosi think we should live. And Chuck Schumer too. I don’t like that idea. I think that’s a terrible idea.

Leahy: Well the Founding Fathers would agree with you. That’s why we set up a Constitution where one of the foundational principles was federalism. Which is to say two types of government. The national government and the state government. The states have sovereignty.

Carmichael: And by the way, we have lots of people who are moving into Nashville from California, Illinois, and New York. Please adopt our values and don’t bring yours with you.

Leahy: They are trying to in some cases.

Carmichael: You’re coming here because we’re a great place to live.

Leahy: Don’t ruin it.

Carmichael: Let’s keep it that way.

Listen to the full third hour here:


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Tune in weekdays from 5:00 – 8:00 a.m. to the Tennessee Star Report with Michael Patrick Leahy on Talk Radio 98.3 FM WLAC 1510. Listen online at iHeart Radio

 

 

 

 

 

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