COVID-19 Update: Virginia’s Current Outlook by the Numbers


A report from the University of Virginia (UVA) Biocomplexity Institute published last Friday showed that the statewide COVID-19 reproduction rate is above 1.0 (1.031) and in all regions except one, meaning the virus is spreading quickly across the Commonwealth, and classifies five out of 35 health districts as a surge.

The UVA Biocomplexity Institute also uses an adaptive model, tracing past and current trends, to predict what could happen in the future. In that report, the model predicted there could be 202,040 total confirmed cases in Virginia by Thanksgiving, an increase of 41,197 confirmed cases from Saturday’s count.

Currently, there are 160,843 confirmed cases, up 18 from Friday, in the state out of a population that is just over 8.5 million people, according to the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) coronavirus dashboard.

Virginia’s daily case incidence rate per 100,000 people is 11.8, considered about the high threshold of 10.0, but cases have been decreasing for the last seven days and the 7-day moving average has been going down since October 10, according to VDH data.

According to the VDH Pandemic Metrics dashboard, the daily PCR test percent positivity is 5.2 percent, well below the high threshold of 10.0 percent, but percent positivity has been increasing for 12 days now.

There have been 3,578 total deaths, 3,328 confirmed and 250 probable. After slight increases until September 9, the 7-day moving average for deaths has been steadily decreasing, according to VDH data.

As of Saturday, 696 patients confirmed COVID positive are currently in the hospital and there has been total of 19,455 patients hospitalized and discharged with confirmed cases, and confirmed hospitalizations has slowly been rising since the end of September, according to the Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association (VHHA) dashboard.

Earlier this month the VHHA released analysis on hospitalizations from January to June, finding that 67.55 percent of coronavirus hospitalizations during those months also had high blood pressure.

In compliance with legislation passed by the Virginia General Assembly during the 2020 special session, the VDH announced Friday it has created the Outbreaks in School Settings dashboard, which presents rather vague information.

It only shows school names and their localities, the status of the outbreak, the date VDH was notified and then a count of cases and deaths. As of Saturday, there have been five cases and no deaths at the Rivermont School in Lynchburg where the outbreak is considered in progress, according to the dashboard.

The UVA Biocomplexity Institute also reported that mask usage in the Commonwealth has remained stable over throughout the pandemic with between 83 and 89 percent of Virginians reporting that they use masks all or most of the time, but it does vary locally throughout the state.

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Jacob Taylor is a reporter at The Virginia Star and the Star News Digital Network. Follow Jacob on Twitter. Email tips to [email protected]


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