President Donald J. Trump is on the verge of becoming the 16th man to be elected to the White House twice—but, everyone is telling you he is going to lose.
Here are the Top 10 reasons why the polls are wrong and Trump gets four more years as the commander-in-chief.
10. Trump voters are not likely voters. Pollsters are making a big mistake when they change their screening of respondents for their turnout model from registered voters to so-called likely voters. Before Trump, this might have made sense because likely voters are, well, the people who are actually going to vote.
The problem is that Trump voters are not likely at all.
Pollsters ask voters if they voted in previous elections and or primaries to discern if they are likely to show up this time. The problem is that many Trump voters voted for the first time in a long time for Trump in 2016—and they have not voted since. Look for Trump voters to come out of the woodwork and the shadows giving him a huge push the polls completely missed.
Go ahead and throw in all the millions of new voters the Republican National Committee has registered, including more than 196,000 in Florida between March and August and more than 110,000 in North Carolina. Needless to say, new voters do not have a voting history, so they also are not part of any model of likely voters.
Watch Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel discuss the GOP’s registration of new voters:
9. Trump fired Brad Pascale. In the 2016 Trump campaign, Brad Pascale ran the digital operation, including online polling, digital advertising and web presence. After eight years of President Barack Obama and the Democrats dominating social media, Pascale put the Republicans in the lead, so much so that his mastery of Facebook embarrassed the leftwing leaders of that platform.
Going into the 2020 cycle, Pascale was put in charge of the Trump reelection effort to acclaim.
Trump’s reelection campaign was a simple affair, until the COVID-19 pandemic. Pascale was doing fine and in some places, such as his brilliant merchandising ideas, like Trump black markers after the president was accused of drawing his own line on a map showing the path of hurricane or Trump plastic straws after they became contraband in fancy parts of the country. In the COVID-19 era, Pascale faltered.
The wizard of social media and snarky tee-shirts did not seem to know how to run a presidential campaign or have friends who did.
Pascale’s flaws were exposed by June 20 Trump rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, when Pascale promised to pack the 19,000-seat BOK Center. Pascale said 500,000 people had requested tickets for the rally, so when less than 7,000 showed up, the bloom was off the rose.
Add on to that people started looking at the books and then is bound to awkward for Pascale after the final accounting.
The president fired Pascale July 15 and replaced him with Bill Stepien.
It was addition by subtraction.
8. Bill Stepien takes helm of Trump campaign. Bill Stepien is not a flashy guy. He is a solid guy. He immediately froze the campaign’s spending and took stock of what was what.
Have never tweeted before, didn't plan to start…but Twitter is making me tweet something so they'll delete the people creating fake accounts. Lots of folks out there without a date on a Friday night, apparently. #MAGA
— BillStepien (@BillStepien) July 18, 2020
Then, he found called up some solid friends and they went to work.
To keep strengthening the President’s team, I announced the following at our all-staff meeting this morning: Justin Clark, Dep. Campaign Manager; Matt Morgan, Campaign Counsel; Nick Trainer, Dir. of Battleground Strategy. All are longtime #MAGA & will help DJT win in 105 days.
— BillStepien (@BillStepien) July 20, 2020
Stepien had experience on previous Republican presidential campaigns, the Trump White House and, of course, the political campaigns of New Jersey Gov. Christopher J. Christie.
It was his New Jersey savvy, that led to his successfully convinced Garden State Rep. Jeff Van Drew to switch from the Democratic Party to the GOP—only after he became the only House Democrat to vote against impeaching the president.
7. Black voters are no longer the Democratic monolith. In 2012, President Barack Obama garnered roughly 95 percent of 67 percent black turnout. It was the first-time black voters were recorded with a higher percentage turnout than white voters.
For Democrats and black voters, it was the high-water mark.
In 2016, black turnout dropped to 60 percent and Trump garnered roughly 8 percent of the black vote with most of that coming from black men. Hillary Clinton was so dependent on the black vote that in the last week of the campaign, her husband President Bill Clinton visited black ministers in Detroit and the campaign, and the campaign held her last rally in Philadelphia.
In 2020, Trump is poised to secure 15 percent of the black vote.
For Democrats the disappointment is going to being heavy, because Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. sold himself to the powers-that-be as the candidate able to bring black turnout to the levels seen in the 2012 and 2008 elections.
Biden was crushed in the Feb. 11 New Hampshire primary, finishing fifth with 8 percent of the vote and no delegates. Yet, two weeks later, House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D.-S.C.) endorsed the former vice president, and he was back in the game. Clyburn is the senior black elected official in the country and his stamp of approval not only held sway for black voters, but it was also the message to the white party leaders that Biden was the guy.
Consider the percentage of black voters in these five battleground states: Georgia, 32 percent; North Carolina, 22 percent; Florida, 14 percent; Michigan, 13 percent and Pennsylvania, 10 percent.
The Biden campaign, the social media platforms and the mainstream media outlets are all trying to drive up black turnout.
Now, consider if that turnout it is driving up Trump’s vote totals as he cuts into that share from 90 percent to 85 percent.
6. Trump is building a wall on the Mexican border. Candidate Donald J. Trump’s biggest applause line in his 2015-2016 campaign rallies was his promise to build a wall on the Mexican border. Before there were chants of “Lock Her Up,” there were chants of “Build the Wall!”
When Trump became president there was some sort of barrier along 650 miles of the 2,000-mile border. As of Election Day, Trump has built added 15 new miles of barrier, but most importantly, he has replaced more than 350 miles of simple fencing barrier with mighty steel bollard wall, using more than 550,000 tons of steel. There are 220 miles of wall under construction and another 160 miles in different stages of planning.
The funding has not been pretty and the president had to declare a national emergency to get it done, but there it is, a wall on the Mexican border going up right before our eyes.
5. Trump has resisted new foreign wars, while strengthening America’s military reputation. Nothing speaks to President Barack Obama’s foreign policy like his policy in Iraq. In the 2012 presidential campaign, he campaigned for reelection as the man who pulled our combat troops out of Iraq.
Then, in 2014, Obama sent our troops back because of the rise of the Army of the Islamic State, which took over the cities of Tikrit, Mosul, control of Iraq’s borders with Jordan and Syria.
Trump promised to destroy the ISIS caliphate that stretched from Aleppo, Syria to Diyala, Iraq and he did.
In his first year, the president ramped up operations against ISIS by adding U.S. logistics, special operations forces and airstrikes. In July 2017, Mosul, Iraq was liberated, followed by Raqqa, Syria in October 2017 and by November 2017, the caliphate was gone.
Watch this video Marine artillery destroying an ISIS artillery system in support of SDF operations to defeat ISIS in Raqqah, Syria, May 14, 2017:
After the destruction of the caliphate, Trump did not follow up with an occupation or an expansion of the war into other areas of concern. Instead, Trump has been pulling troops out of Iraq.
When Trump took office, there was the strong possibility of the United States getting pulled into a hot war in Ukraine, the Korean Peninsula or even the Baltics—in addition to the escalation of 80,000 troops the Pentagon was calling for in Afghanistan.
Nearly four years in, American has not joined any new hot wars and we had 10,000 troops in Afghanistan and 5,000 now with plans to be at 2,500 this time next year.
4. Trump took on China. When Biden talks about Trump’s “failed trade war” he is struggling to turn the president’s China policy against him. China is a menace and before Trump, no one in the American political establishment had an issue.
Republicans used to point to the growth of the Chinese economy and call it the victory of the free enterprise system. Nobody says that anymore. Trump clearly explained that it was not free enterprise, it was the transfer of American factories to China.
Today, the trade deficit with China stands at $350 billion, down from $375 billion in 2018.
When China joined the World Trade Organization in 2002, the deficit stood at $100 billion.
In 2002, there were 18 million manufacturing jobs in the United States.
Before COVID-19, Trump added more than 400,000 new manufacturing jobs in the United States with now 14 million manufacturing jobs and rising.
3. Trump is trusted to remake the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court has been the most consequential branch of government for the Left. Think of the leftwing agenda items that became the law of the land through the least democratic of our institutions: legalized abortion, gay marriage and expulsion of religious expression from the schools and the public square.
For most conservatives, the 1973 Roe v. Wade abortion rights decision is the only reason they care about the Supreme Court. Talk about abortion has become so contentious that instead talking about abortion, conservatives just say, “I voted for Trump because of the Supreme Court.”
Supreme Court means abortion, but before Trump the record of Republicans has not been good. Of the seven Supreme Court justices who voted for the Roe v. Wade decision, four of them were Republican appointees, including Justice Harry A. Blackman, who write the decision.
Nineteen years later, conservatives had the chance to overturn Roe v. Wade with the Planned Parenthood v. Casey case, but instead the high court sustained Roe with a 5-4 vote with four of the justices voting to protect abortion appointed by Republicans.
Trump has put justices Neil M. Gorsuch, Brett M. Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett on the high court. These three jurists are not just joining the other conservatives, Clarence Thomas and Samuel A. Alito Jr., which means Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., is no longer the swing vote working with the court’s liberals.
It is the practice of the Supreme Court that when the chief justice votes with the majority, he chooses the justice to write the decision. This is the most important power the chief justice wields, but if he does not join the conservatives, he is boxed out of any role in writing the court’s decision.
It is no exaggeration that for the first time in a long time, the Supreme Court is not longer in the hands of the Left and in the next four years more seats will open up. When those seats open up, Americans want Trump making the call.
2. Biden is not capable of serving as president. In the history of the American presidency, there has been one other time when a candidate’s severe health issues were kept from the American people, President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s 1944 reelection campaign. It was obvious to the Democratic Party leaders that Roosevelt was fading, so they replaced socialist Henry Wallace as the vice-presidential nominee and replaced him with Sen. Harry S. Truman (D.-Mo.).
There is no way of knowing how long anyone is going to live or function normally, but it is clear that Biden is not well. He has always had cognitive misfires, saying things that were outrageous or awkward, but now there is a disconnect that was never there before.
Often Biden does not know where he is or who he is or what is his supposed to talk about.
“Watching the press handle Joe Biden is like watching someone make sure a 3 year old wins Candyland.”https://t.co/jaMXb3FwVl
— Nikki Haley (@NikkiHaley) October 27, 2020
Americans are compassion people. They want the best for others. They know it is unfair for them to put Biden in a position he cannot handle.
Also: There is no way Americans want Sen. Kamala Harris (D.-Calif.), Biden’s running mate to become the next president.
1. It’s the economy, stupid. Despite what the president says, the United States did not have the best economy in its history before COVID-19, but to be fair, it was getting there.
Gross Domestic Product growth for Trump’s first three years were: 2017, 2.22 percent; 2018, 3.18 percent and 2019, 2.33 percent. This was while running a trade war with China. To his credit, Trump chose structural change with our economic relationship with China over economic growth.
However, Trump’s most amazing achievement has been his stewardship of the COVID-19 economy. Seven months ago, the stock market and the economy took two major hits. One was the COVID-19 shutdown. The other was oil price war Saudi Arabia launched against Russia.
In the middle of this trade war, the price of oil went negative as traders were unwilling to take delivery of oil they had contracted for but could not offload onto someone else.
The centerpiece of Trump’s handling of the economic crisis was the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act, or the CARES Act. Inside that legislation is the Payroll Protection Program, which passed out nearly $700 billion in loans, many forgivable, to businesses.
PPP was designed to keep businesses going and workforces connected, rather than spread out to the winds. Construction companies alone collected $45 billion and restaurants and hotels got $30 billion.
The American people know that at some point this year, the economy could have taken a real dive, but it did not. Trump held the country and the economy together.
It is true that the mainstream media tried to turn COVID-19 into Trump’s Katrina Hurricane. It failed because no one blamed Trump for the virus arriving here. Whatever gigs, Trump earned for mistakes handling COVID-19, what really mattered was his handling of the economy, which is ramping back up.
People trust Trump with the economy and they want him to have four more years.
It is as simple as that.