John Fredericks Commentary: NFL Playoffs Phase II

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by John Fredericks

 

Forget the stimulus checks for $1,400. We can double that this weekend with two lock games I have for you. 

Yes, we were 3-3 last weekend, so you lost the vigorish but my best bet won: Washington plus 9. 

Always make my best bets double your average wager. I recovered a lost weekend with a Sunday PM modest two game winning streak with the Saints and Brownies. 

So here we go: I have two best bets this week as move into the second round. 

Saturday January 16 

Packers -7 over Rams 

Best Bet 

Are you serious? Aaron Rodgers at Lambo in the snow versus Jared Goff who lost his job a few weeks ago to a practice squad player? This line is based entirely on respect for the Rams defense, which smothered Russel Wilson and the Seahawks last week. Even with that pathetic Seattle performance, the Rams needed a pick-six to seal the deal. Lay the seven, and grab a scotch and soda when you are up by 21 in the fourth quarter. L.A. has no offense to speak of, and if they get down by several scores, who’s going to bring them back? It’ll be Pick-O-Mania. Does anyone believe Jared Goff is the answer? Packers -7 over Rams–Best Bet 

Bills -2.5 over Ravens

I am a Titans fan. I watched in horror as the Ravens danced on our logo last week. What goes around, comes around. Baltimore is a one-dimensional team with one offensive player. So he won a playoff game, big deal. Lamar Jackson this and Lamar Jackson that. I’m sick of hearing about how gifted he is. The Bills are a well-rounded team with a ton of weapons. Plus they are at home, with the Bills Mafia in Orchard Park. My only concern is the number of missed tackles they had last week vs. Indy. BTW for you Colts’ fans: kick the field goal. Bills -2.5 over Ravens

Sunday January 17

Chiefs -10 over Browns

My father taught me two important things about gambling on football: 1. Never take the points if you don’t think the dog can win the game. 2. Never bet against the Chiefs at Arrowhead. Good advice, even 45 years later. While 10 points looks enticing with the Brownies after their Sunday night massacre, I don’t see Kansas City losing this game. So it’s a matter of how many points they win by. This game could be 24-21 in the third quarter, and end up 45-28. That what the Chiefs do. Is Mahomes even human? Every dog has its day. Just not this day. Chiefs -10 over Browns

Saints -3 over Tampa Bay – Best Bet 

There is hype and then there is reality. The WFC should have eliminated Tampa last week. And they went 7-9 and depended on a quarterback with one pro start. Tom Brady is 43, and looks every bit as creaky as you saw last week. 

The Packers will become the Sackers, giving Brady fits all night. While the Bucs defense is legit, this is a mismatch of weapons and talent. A few short weeks ago the Saints blew Tampa out of the Superdome. That was not happenstance. I love the Saints in this game, and I expected the line to be six, not three. This is an underplay gift based on Tom Brady sentimental money. Kind of like me taking the pipe on the Titans last week. Save your sentiment for your wife and kids. Take the Saints and deposit cash in your bank account. Oh, and bet them now before it goes up to 4 at game time.

Saints -3 over Tampa Bay – Best Bet 

Remember to please play responsively! 

– – –

John Fredericks, Publisher and Editor In Chief, The Virginia Star.
Photo “Tampa Bay Buccaneers” by All-Pro Reels. CC BY-SA 2.0.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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