June General Revenue in Florida Exceeds Economic Forecasts

Florida’s Historic Capitol and Florida State Capitol

 

The Florida Legislature’s Office of  Economic Demographic Research (EDR) recently reported $4.1 billion in June general revenue (GR). The $4.1 billion in revenue exceeded the General Revenue Estimating Conference (GREC) April projection of $3.124 billion by $975.7 million or 31.2%.

According to the report, not only does June mark the eleventh consecutive month that the GR exceeded the EDR’s forecast, it also recorded the largest amount over the estimate. May recorded $3.615 billion in GR, $573.8 million (18.9%) over the estimate of $3.041 billion. April recorded $4.192 billion in GR, $797.2 million (23.5%) over the estimate of $3.395 billion.

As in April and May, when sales-tax revenue accounted for the majority of overall GR with 56% and 72%, respectively, sales-tax revenue in June accounted for 50% of GR.

Sales-tax is divided into six categories; Consumer Nondurables (food, beverage, gas, clothes, etc.), Tourism, Automobiles, Other Durables (appliances, electronics, tools, jewelry, etc.), Building, and Business.

In the June report, all six sales-tax categories exceeded the estimated amount for the month and the year. Consumer Nondurables gained $333.2 million (3.9%), Tourism $338.3 million (6.7%), Automobiles $484 million (9.2%), Other Durables $120.5 million (6.8%), Building $53.9 million (2.8%), and Business with $158.1 million (2.7%).

Revenue sources that collected less than the June estimate and the FY were Parimutuel Taxes, Article V Fees and Transfers, Tobacco Tax, and Severance Taxes.

As a whole, the report states that the GR collections for the entire 2020-2021 FY were $36.281 billion, $2.329 billion (6.9%) over the estimate of $33.952 billion.

The report also states, “June collections reflect activity that largely occurred in May, which continued to benefit from the most recent round of stimulus checks to households, redirected spending from the hard-hit service sector and some consumers’ ability to draw down atypically large savings that built up during the pandemic.”

Currently, Florida and the rest of the U.S. is dealing with a rise in COVID-19 cases due to the delta variant, which some EDR officials have said may negatively affect future forecast for the 2021-2022 FY.

As reported previously reported by The Capital Star, the policy coordinator for the OPB, Holger Ciupalo, proposed an increased estimate for GR following Canada’s decision to loosen its border restrictions regarding COVID-19. Ciupalo stated this will significantly impact Florida’s tourism industry and boost the GR for the first two quarters of the 2021-2022 FY.

EDR Coordinator Amy Baker said she was hesitant about excepting an increased forecast for 2021-2022 because of her concern over the delta variant. She says that the effects of the delta variant could result in Canada re-closing its border.

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Casey Owens is a contributing writer for The Florida Capital Star. Follow him on Twitter at @cowensreports. Email tips to [email protected]
Photo “Florida’s Historic Capitol and Florida State Capitol” by Michael Rivera CC BY-SA 3.0.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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