In a poll recently released by Emerson College Polling/The Hill, Stacey Abrams trails both Georgia Governor Brian Kemp (R) and his GOP primary challenger, former U.S. Senator David Perdue.
Kemp leads Abrams by seven percentage points and Perdue has a five-point lead.
In the potential general election match-up poll, which was conducted on April 1-3, and has a margin of error of three percent, Kemp leads Abrams 51 percent to 44 percent with five percent undecided. Perdue leads Abrams 49 percent to 44 percent with seven percent undecided.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said, “Abrams holds the majority of support in the general election among voters under 50, while Kemp and Perdue have a strong majority of voters over 50. Abrams’ chances in November depend in large part on whether or not these younger voters turn out.”
Kimball added, “Abrams holds the majority of support in the general election among voters under 50, while Kemp and Perdue have a strong majority of voters over 50. Abrams’ chances in November depend in large part on whether or not these younger voters turn out.”
Prominent national political consultant Jimmy Keady commented on the potential impact of the youth vote in the general election for the Georgia governor.
“Democrats always put too much emphasis on the youth vote, particularly in off-year elections. Youth voting only really occurs in presidential general elections, even then, the impact is overplayed,” he said. “In this environment with Joe Biden’s horrific polling numbers and low Democrat enthusiasm, Abrams is going to get an unpleasant surprise in November when the youth vote stays home.”
In the Georgia governor’s GOP primary race, Kemp leads Perdue by 11 percentage points, 43 percent to 32 percent with 17 percent undecided. If neither candidate receives 50 percent plus one vote, there would be a primary runoff. In that poll-tested scenario, Kemp leads Perdue by five percentage points, 44 percent to 39 percent, with 16 percent undecided.
Former President Donald Trump endorsed Perdue. In a statement released in December 2021, Trump said:
Great to see that David Perdue is running for Governor of Georgia. He is a Conservative fighter who isn’t afraid of the Radical Left, and is the only candidate in Georgia who can beat Stacey “The Hoax” Abrams in November. Brian Kemp has failed Georgia. He caved to Stacey Abrams before the 2020 Election and allowed massive Election Fraud to take place. The signing of the Stacey Abrams-backed Consent Decree, so stupidly giving her and the Democrats everything they wanted, was a monumental mistake for not only Georgia, but also for our Nation!
Kemp has been a very weak Governor—the liberals and RINOs have run all over him on Election Integrity, and more. Most importantly, he can’t win because the MAGA base—which is enormous—will never vote for him. We need strong leaders who will fight, and time is running out! David Perdue will eliminate the Income Tax, secure the Elections, defend the Second Amendment, support our great Farmers, get crime in Atlanta and other places under control, take care of our great Vets, and put parents back in charge of the schools.
Georgia’s primaries are scheduled to occur on May 24. If necessary, a primary runoff would occur on June 21.
According to Emerson College, “The general election sample consisted of registered voters in Georgia, n=1,013 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The Republican primary sample consisted of likely voters, n=509, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points.”
The college also explained how it weighed the data set and how the sample was collected.
“The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, and region based on 2020 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample of SMS-to-web, an online panel provided by Amazon Mechanical Turk, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines,” Emerson College said.
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Aaron Gulbransen is a reporter at The Georgia Star News and The Star News Network. Email tips to [email protected] Follow Aaron on GETTR, Twitter, and Parler.
Photo “Abrams holds rally” by Stacey Abrams.