by Tom Joyce
No one is running away in the Arizona Republican gubernatorial and U.S. Senate primaries just yet.
An Arizona Public Opinion Pulse poll conducted by OH Predictive Insights released this week shows that both primaries would be competitive if held this week and that many primary voters haven’t made up their minds.
Former TV anchor Kari Lake holds the lead in the race for governor with 29% support. However, Arizona Strategies president Karrin Taylor-Robson is within striking distance; she has 22% support. Meanwhile, former U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon is in a distant third place with 11% support. Steve Gaynor, the Republican nominee for Arizona Secretary of State in 2018, is in fourth place with 3% support.
However, undecideds (35%) are the biggest bloc of voters.
“With one-third of likely voters undecided in the Governor’s contest, the winner will likely be the one who does the best with voter math,” OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble said in a press release.
“Salmon needs to figure out how to gain some momentum, Lake needs to figure out a way to increase her base of support, Robson needs to not run out of money, and Gaynor needs to do something – anything to stave off irrelevancy,” he added.
Meanwhile, even fewer people have made up their minds about the U.S. Senate race. In that one, 44% of voters say they’re undecided.
Current Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich holds a small lead with 21% support. That puts him just 5 points ahead of businessman Jim Lamon (16%) in a poll with a 4.5-point margin of error.
The other three candidates in the race – venture capitalist Blake Masters (9%), Major General Michael McGuire (6%), and Arizona corporation commissioner Justin Olson (3%) – all polled in single digits.
“None of the candidates have been able to break away and define themselves in the Senate contest,” Noble said. “They will need to do a better job of convincing voters that they deserve to be the GOP nominee to take on Kelly in November.”
This survey was conducted on April 4 and 5, surveying 500 Arizonans qualified as likely GOP primary voters, giving the survey a margin of error of 4.4%.
The statewide Democratic and Republican primaries for Arizona will take place on August 2.
– – –
Tom Joyce is a contributor to The Center Square.
Photo “Mark Brnovich” by Mark Brnovich. Photo “Kari Lake” by Gage Skidmore. CC BY-SA 2.0. Background Photo “Arizona State Capitol” by Gage Skidmore. CC BY-SA 2.0.