Trump-endorsed Blake Masters didn’t appear to pull any closer to Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) after the results of counting more ballots were released shortly after 6 p.m. PST on the day after the midterm election. Although Kelly took the lead initially on election night, his lead has mostly shrunk as the types of ballots being counted last trended toward Republicans.
The self-described “Data Guru” from ABC-15, Garrett Archer, tweeted after the latest results, “it’s clear that the 62k ballots dropped in Maricopa were friendly to the D candidates.”
I can't do my magic until the results hit the AZSOS page. They're not there yet. But it's clear that the 62k ballots dropped in Maricopa were friendly to the D candidates.
— The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 10, 2022
However, pollster Data Orbital reassured voters, “Reminder(!!!) – This drop is only about 15% of the total ballots remaining and the batch we expected to be the worst for the Republicans.”
Maricopa County – 62,034 Ballots Reported
Kari Lake – 28,058 (45.9%)
Katie Hobbs – 33,018 (54.1%)
~360,000 Ballots left in Maricopa
Reminder(!!!) – This drop is only about 15% of the total ballots remaining and the batch we expected to be the worst for the Republicans. #AZ
— Data Orbital (@Data_Orbital) November 10, 2022
The batch from Maricopa County tabulated 62,034 ballots, putting Masters at 45 percent to Kelly’s 53 percent in Maricopa County. Statewide, Kelly is leading by slightly less, 51.3 percent to 46.5 percent. The batch from Pima County tabulated 13,529 ballots, which went 30.7 for Masters and 67.4 for Kelly.
Most of the new batch of ballots consisted of early ballots that were dropped off between Friday and the Tuesday election. A much larger number of ballots dropped off on Election Day in Maricopa County than in the 2020 election, 275,000 versus 170,000.
Before Wednesday evening’s ballot dump, there were roughly 465,505 ballots located primarily in Maricopa County left to count. This leaves likely 389,922 remaining to be counted.
During an appearance Wednesday evening on The Rob Schmitt Show on Newsmax, Ric Grenell, who served as acting director of national intelligence under President Donald Trump, predicted that Masters would win the race. Earlier in the day, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum said on Newsmax that Masters needs to win 60 percent of the remaining votes to defeat Kelly.
Many believe that Masters is bringing in enough final votes to prevail. AZChilly tweeted, “Over 600k ballots left and the trajectory is 65/35… that means Masters will win as long as the trend holds. This ratio was expected based on the exits.”
Over 600k ballots left and the trajectory is 65/35… that means Masters will win as long as the trend holds. This ratio was expected based on the exits.
— AZchilly (@AZchilly) November 10, 2022
The Libertarian candidate in the race, Marc Victor, may have cut into Masters’ share of the vote. Victor dropped out of the race and endorsed Masters last month, but not before early ballots were mailed, leaving his name on the ballot. Returns so far show Victor getting over 2 percent of the vote, or about 7,000 votes.
Most polls immediately before Election Day showed Masters losing, but by the slimmest of margins and within the margin of error.
If Masters wins the race, there is an excellent chance State Representative Mark Finchem (R-Oro Valley) will also win his race for secretary of state against former Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes, since he is behind Fontes by fewer votes than Masters trails Kelly.
If Masters loses the race, control of the U.S. Senate may come down to a runoff race between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Republican Herschel Walker in Georgia.
Archer cautioned people not to expect the race to be over yet. “You don’t have to like that Arizona will take about a week to finish counting the early vote drop offs,” he tweeted.
A brief PSA:
You don't have to like that Arizona will take about a week to finish counting the early vote drop offs.
It is a function of statute. So next week, please think before suggesting on here it is due to incompetence or fraud.
It is neither.
— The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 5, 2022
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