Tennessee’s population is expected to hit 7.94 million by 2040, according to new data published by the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Haslam College of Business.
In 2022, the state’s population was recorded at just over 7.05 million.
Tennessee would experience a 12.6 percent increase in population from 2022 if the state were to hit 7.94 million by 2040.
A notable percentage of the state’s projected population increase includes adults over 65 years of age.
“By 2040, the state’s population of adults 65 and over is expected to increase by 25 percent compared to the 2022 census estimate (the most recent available), with a 36 percent spike among those aged 75-84 and a 72 percent surge in individuals aged 85 and above,” the University of Tennessee’s data explains.
Matt Harris, Boyd Distinguished Professor of Health Economics, Joe Johnson Faculty Fellow and co-author of the new projections, also pointed out that the increased population of elderly adults will end up causing a notable slow in the state’s population in the coming years.
“At the state level, the amount of population growth during the 2020s will feel similar to the gains we saw last decade. But as the baby boom generation reaches the later stages of life, a rising number of deaths will begin to slow Tennessee’s population increases,” Harris said.
In terms of racial and ethnic composition of the projected population increase, the university’s data shows that roughly 60 percent of the growth by 2040 is “projected to be among Hispanic individuals, Black or African American individuals or people of other races or more than one race.”
The data from the university also published state population projections past 2040 for each decade leading up to 2070.
In 2050, the state’s population is projected to reach 8,350,000 while in 2060, Tennessee’s population is projected to approach 9 million with approximately 8,790,000 people.
In 2070, the state’s population is projected to hit 9,250,000.
As Tennessee’s population continues to increase, so does the state’s possibility of adding a 10th U.S. House of Representatives seat during the next redistricting cycle in 2030.
Every 10 years, states gain or lose seats in the U.S. House based on their official population determined by the U.S. Census Bureau. A state’s congressional districts are each drawn to incorporate roughly the same number of residents, to ensure equal representation in the U.S. House.
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Kaitlin Housler is a reporter at The Tennessee Star and The Star News Network. Follow Kaitlin on X / Twitter.
A sad state of affairs. The quadruple whammy of refugees (thank you Mr. Lee), illegals, northerners and Californicans.
Not counted are the number of illegal immigrants who have arrived, and continue to arrive, in our state.