by Mary Lou Masters
President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign faces headwinds ahead of 2024 among a crucial voting bloc that typically backs Democrats by huge margins, a new poll found.
Biden garnered only 63% support from black voters in a GenForward survey from the University of Chicago, while former President Donald Trump received 17% of the share and 20% said they wouldn’t back either candidate, Politico reported Tuesday. Several other recent surveys have also found Biden struggling among the black electorate, with support for the former president surging.
“It is possible, and we’ve seen it before, that a higher number, in particular Black men because of a kind of hypermasculinity of Donald Trump, could vote for Trump [again],” Cathy Cohen, the founder and director of GenForward and political science professor at the University of Chicago, told Politico.
The survey represents a significant shift in support for both Biden and Trump ahead of 2024. In the 2020 election, Biden received 92% support from black voters, compared to 8% who chose Trump, according to the Pew Research Center.
A New York Times survey of six crucial battleground states released in early November found that the more diverse a state was, the worse Biden fared against Trump. Support for Trump among the black electorate had jumped by 22 points, which the NYT described as “unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.”
While roughly half of black voters in the poll approved of Biden’s job performance, about nine in ten supported the president during his first few months in office, according to The Associated Press.
Cohen also warned of the potential for low voter turnout among black individuals, which could be another blow to Biden’s effort. Roughly 20% of black voters said they wouldn’t vote if the election were held today, according to the poll.
“For younger people, it is the threat of a third-party candidate or staying at home,” Cohen said, that Democrats should be concerned about.
Several third-party candidates are running for president in 2024, including independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, the Green Party’s Jill Stein, a Libertarian and potentially West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin with centrist organization No Labels.
The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average for a 2024 national Republican and Democratic primary, based on the most recent polling, indicates Trump and Biden are leading their respective fields by 48 and 60 points, respectively. Trump is currently ahead of Biden in the RCP average by 2.2. points for a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.
The GenForward survey polled 3,448 voters nationwide, with significant over samples of black voters and other minorities, from Nov. 8 to Nov. 30. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.
Biden’s campaign did not immediately respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment.
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Mary Lou Masters is a reporter at Daily Caller News Foundation.
