Nearly a year before the 2024 presidential election, former President Donald J. Trump is running neck-and-neck with the man who replaced him in the White House, Joseph R. Biden Jr., with each with the support of 37 percent of Virginians, according to a poll by the University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies of 1,000 of the commonwealth’s adults conducted September 5 through September 11.
“Virginia looks a lot like America as a whole in this survey,” said Professor Stephen J. Farnsworth, the center’s director.
“President Biden is relatively unpopular now in Virginia and nationally, and national surveys also suggest 2024 is shaping up to be an extremely competitive election cycle,” he said.
“Despite all the legal challenges Trump faces, Republicans in Virginia – like their counterparts outside the Commonwealth – want the former president to be the party’s standard bearer next year,” Farnsworth said.
In the last four presidential elections, the current Obama-Trump presidential paradigm, the commonwealth’s electoral votes went to the Democratic presidential nominee, but in the previous Nixon-Reagan presidential paradigm, it was different.
From the 1968 election through the 2004 election, Virginia went for the Republican presidential nominee 10 out of 10 times.
In the FDR-JFK presidential paradigm, from 1932 through 1964, Democrats won the commonwealth six out of nine elections, with Republicans winning three times, 1952, 1956, and 1960—Dwight D. Eisenhower twice, followed by Richard M. Nixon, who was Ike’s vice president.
Although he has not yet announced a presidential ambition, Old Dominion Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin was the choice of 6 percent of respondents for the Republican nomination.
“Virginia’s governor is doing relatively well as a potential candidate in this survey of Virginians,” the political science professor said.
“Although all the candidates remain far behind Trump, Youngkin, who is being touted by some conservatives, is doing better here than some of the candidates who are actually running for office,” he said.
In the poll, 23 percent of Virginians preferred Trump for GOP nominee, followed by former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, 7 percent; Youngkin and former New Jersey governor Chris Christie at 6 percent and 5 percent for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Taken together, Trump was the first or second place choice of 31 percent of those surveyed, while DeSantis was the first or second choice of 21 percent and Haley was the first or second choice of 17 percent.
Head-to-head with Biden, DeSantis, who was once considered a serious rival to Trump for the nomination, came up short with 30 percent of Virginia adults compared to 39 percent for Biden.
Youngkin fared better with 34 percent to Biden’s 37 percent.
– – –
Neil W. McCabe is a staff reporter for The Virginia Star.
Background Photo “Virginia Capitol” by Doug Kerr. CC BY-SA 2.0.
