The future of the Commonwealth of Virginia hangs in the balance as Democrats, backed by former President Barack Obama, are desperate to stop Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin from winning the state government trifecta, control of both chambers of the General Assembly in addition to governor’s office—all coming to a head on the November 7 Election Day.
“I’m calling to remind you that today is Election Day in Virginia. The people we elect in the State Senate and House of Delegates will make decisions that affect your everyday life. Now’s the time to make our voices heard,” said Obama in one of the robocalls he recorded for Virginia Democrats to target some 100,000 Democratic voters.
Youngkin, who is limited to the one term he won in 2021, has thrown himself into this campaign with a vengeance unseen in recent Virginia history through his personal political organization and his own sweat equity.
Today, the governor wraps up his 13-stop “SecureYourVote” bus tour with rallies in Fredericksburg, Prince William County and Loudoun County.
The former Carlyle Group co-CEO raised more than $18 million for his Spirit of Virginia PAC to bolster Republican legislative candidates.
Going into Tuesday, Republicans have a 48-46 edge in the House of Delegates, where there are six vacancies. In the State Senate, Democrats have a 22-18 advantage. All 140 legislative seats are contested this cycle.
If Youngkin succeeds, he not only flips the script that describes the commonwealth as a purple state trending blue, he also sets himself up at a potential rival to President Donald J. Trump for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
If he fails to capture both legislative chambers, he is finished as governor, since he agenda remains blocked by Democrats–and he loses the aura of winning he earned in 2021, when he captured the governor’s office with 51 percent of the vote.
John Fredericks bus tour driving turnout in tight races
John Fredericks, the radio show host and publisher of The Virginia Star, ran his own “Opportunity Virginia Bus Tour” to drive turnout for Republicans in tight races around the commonwealth—broadcasting live from the bus or at stops for the radio show and his Real America’s Voice program “Outside the Beltway.”
The Godzilla of Truth brings his bus tour to the campaign headquarters of Sheriff J.D “Danny” Diggs, running in the new 24th Senate District today.
Fredericks made the Battle for Virginia has been front and center on his programs, including Youngkin’s push to ban abortions after 15 weeks. On his November 2 “Outside the Beltway” program, his guest, Rev. Dean Nelson, with the Human Coalition, said he welcomed Youngkin’s proactive, pro-life politics because, for too long, Republicans have run away and ignored any discussion of abortion.
“We cannot allow objections to go unanswered,” Nelson said. “If there something that is out there about a candidate and you don’t respond to it, then most of the world thinks that it’s true,” he said.
Youngkin has turned that dynamic around, Nelson said.
“That’s exactly what Governor Young has done,” the minister said. “I’m very proud that they have had this $1.4 billion add by across the state, simply saying that, No. 1, we stand on this 15 weeks, which in some states we understand that 15 weeks is not a lot, but in 15 weeks, that does save lives.”
The chairman of the Douglass Leadership Institute said the truth of the matter is that because Republicans never engaged on the issue, they never benefited from the natural strength of their position.
“The vast majority of Americans and Virginians support some kind of limits,” he said.
“The contrast is that the Democrats are not talking about how extreme their positions are in Virginia; just this past year, 21 or 22 senators voted to change the Constitution to allow abortion up until the ninth month,” he said.
“Up until the ninth month—that’s an extreme position,” Nelson said. “One-third of Democrats do not agree with that position, and what Republicans need to do, just as Ron DeSantis did in Florida when he signed a six-week bill, is he went on offense.”
Democrats took out conservative lawmakers in primaries
Despite the transformation of Fairfax and Loudoun countries into Washington suburbs, where the population of federal workers and contractors have given Democrats a solid electoral base, the commonwealth remains a culturally conservative state.
Traditional Democrats, whose political lineage traces back to before Virginia was the GOP stronghold, the transformation of Fairfax and Loudon overturned.
The most high-profile example was how leftwing Democrats went after fellow Democrat State Senator Joe Morrissey, who represents the 16th Senate District. In March, all six female Democratic state senators came together to endorse his primary opponent, Lashrecse Aird.
The Associated Press covered it in its “Virginia’s Female Democratic Senators Rebuke Joe Morrissey” article:
Morrissey has a long history of being on the wrong side of the values that matter to Virginia’s Democratic voters. His public behavior has, for years, drawn attention to himself rather than to the needs of his constituents,” the senators said.
Their public reprimand marked an unusual departure from the typical practice of legislators backing incumbents in primaries and avoiding public disputes among caucus members. It also seemed to set off the flurry of subsequent Aird endorsements that followed from U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, three male state senators and several members of the House of Delegates.
In a similar way, moderate Democratic state senators Chap Petersen, representing the 37th Senate District, and Lionell Spruill, representing the 5th Senate District.
These three are in Democratic districts that are not considered competitive in the general election.
If Republicans flip at least two Senate seats, they can take control of the chamber with the tie-breaker from Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, but with the loss of three moderate senators who could be counted on to cross the aisle from time to time, the margins are tighter.
If Democrats hold onto control of the upper chamber, it is going to be an even more resilient barrier to Youngkin’s agenda with the addition of three reliable leftists in safe Democratic districts.
Conservative operative: Youngkin’s abortion gamble too little, too late
A prominent conservative operative active in Virginia this off-cycle told The Virginia Star Youngkin’s decision to highlight his bill to ban abortions after 15 weeks was a strategic error that short-circuited Republican momentum.
It was good to have a definitive and confident response to Democratic attacks on Republicans that claim the GOP looks to ban all abortions, the operative said.
“He had his response ready to go when he filed that bill in January,” they said. “Dropping his ad and making it the top issue right before early voting started swamped the messages Republican candidates were making on crime and education—he changed the subject.”
It was a shock to the system that was supposed to neutralize abortion as a Republican-killer, but instead, the governor’s timing put a bigger target on their backs, they said.
“Youngkin should have been talking about his abortion response in May, June, and July so that come September, it was already part of the conversation, and candidates could then talk about something else,” they said.
The operative said they expect Republicans to barely hold onto the House of Delegates and fall short in the State Senate, not despite of the governor’s personal centralizing of the campaign but because of it.
“He raised $20 million, but he spent $8 million, so a lot of that money would have gone to candidates and didn’t,” they said.
Part of the problem is that Youngkin fell under the influence of Richmond lobbyists, such as Matt Moran, who are not political strategists or campaign experts, they said. Moran represents Apple, Virginia Court Clerks, in addition to gambling and renewable energy interests.
Ultimately, the operative said the impression from the flood of Democratic TV advertising is that Democrats took this election more seriously than Republicans.
The five GOP State Senate candidates the operative said they were looking at Election Day night are: Dr. Siobhan Dunnavant, running in the 12th Senate District; Delegate Emily Brewer, running in the 17th Senate District; Delegate Tara Durant, running in the 27th Senate District; doughnut magnate Juan Pablo Segura, running in the 31st Senate District and Diggs.
“If Diggs does not win, it will be a bad night.”
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Neil W. McCabe is a staff reporter for The Virginia Star.
