The results from Arizona’s election began trickling in Tuesday at 8 p.m., and within a couple of hours it became clear Trump was leading by a few thousand votes, with his lead steadily increasing to 9,316 votes. Kari Lake lagged behind Ruben Gallego in the U.S. Senate race by a little over 100,000 votes. However, the preliminary results were based on early ballots, and ABC-15’s “Data Guru” Garrett Archer acknowledged on X that Election Day ballots had not been counted yet, but when they did they would favor Republicans.
By late evening, 10 percent of precincts across the state had reported their numbers. Archer observed that independents surged in Election Day voting. While they trailed Republicans in early voting, by 7:30 p.m. in Maricopa County 104,000 independents had voted on Tuesday, compared to 91,700 Republicans and 55,400 Democrats.
Independents tend to break evenly for Republicans versus Democrats, however, polls this year show them breaking for Trump. A 2015 survey by Arizona State University’s Morrison Institute for Public Policy found that 14.6 percent of Arizona independents identify as conservatives, 12.1 percent as liberals, and 73.3 percent as moderates. A Gallup poll from early October found that 49 percent of independents nationwide are leaning towards Republicans and 42 percent towards Democrats.
Maricopa County contains 60 percent of the state’s population, so however Maricopa County goes usually decides the rest of the state.
Representative David Schweikert (R-AZ-01) was in a dead heat with Democrat Amish Shah. Representative Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ-06) trailed Democrat Kirsten Engel by 10 percent. The other congressional incumbents had solid leads.
The two Arizona Supreme Court justices who were targeted over their vote upholding Arizona’s strict old abortion law (which was later repealed by the Arizona Legislature), Clint Bolick and Kathryn King, were winning by significant margins. However, Bolick’s wife, State Senator Shawnna Bolick (R-Phoenix), was trailing her Democratic opponent Judy Schweibert 47 percent to 51 percent. Proposition 137, to protect Bolick and King and limit Governor Katie Hobbs from replacing judges, was failing with 78 percent voting no.
Proposition 139, which would legalize abortion up until birth, was passing with 63 percent of the vote. Proposition 140, which would establish Ranked Choice Voting, was losing with 59 percent voting no. Proposition 314, securing the border, was easily passing with 61 percent voting yes.
Although Trump was winning statewide, Maricopa County showed him down two points, sparking fears of election fraud there. Republicans hold a statewide voter registration advantage of almost 6 percent over Democrats, and in Maricopa County their advantage is 7 percent.
Lake posted on X about 8 p.m., “Do not believe the mainstream media when they ‘call’ these elections.”
Arizona Republican Party Chair Gina Swoboda issued a statement at the end of the evening. “This victory belongs to every Arizonan who knocked on a door, made a call, and stood watch at the polls. Because of you, Arizona is on the path to victory,” she said. “You believed in President Trump because he believed in you. We have all worked tirelessly to send him back to the White House and elect Republicans up and down the ballot. I am endlessly grateful for each of you who put in the hours and the dedication to make tonight a success.”
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Rachel Alexander is a reporter at The Arizona Sun Times and The Star News Network. Follow Rachel on Twitter / X. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Donald Trump” by Gage Skidmore CC2.0.
