Live from Music Row Thursday morning on The Tennessee Star Report with Michael Patrick Leahy – broadcast on Nashville’s Talk Radio 98.3 and 1510 WLAC weekdays from 5:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m. – host Leahy welcomed all-star panelist Clint Brewer in-studio to analyze the candidate for Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District now that former Speaker Beth Harwell has joined the playing field.
Leahy: We are joined in studio by all-star panelist, recovering journalist, all-around good guy, and public affairs specialist Clint Brewer. Well, we just made some news.
Brewer: You did!
Leahy: Beth Harwell, big news. Announced exclusively on The Tennessee Star Report – the former Speaker of the Tennessee House of Representatives.
She’s running for the seat of the Republican nomination in the 5th Congressional District in Tennessee. Your thoughts? What does this mean for the race, Clint Brewer?
Brewer: Well, immediately it puts somebody in the race who is a known quantity to all the grassroots Republicans. Beth was previously, as she said, Speaker of the House. She’s been in state politics here for several decades.
She was a very effective party chairman and was part of that movement where the House and the Senate majorities were won and solidified. A long history of service to both state and party.
What it does is it puts somebody in the race who is intensely local and somebody in the race who understands the Republican Party in Tennessee at a very minute level. So I think that changes the complexion of it.
I think it would change the complexion of it for anybody else local looking at getting in. I think that depending on how potential court challenges do or do not unfold, should Ms. Ortagus somehow not make it to the ballot, it really sets up at this point a pretty good contest between Baxter Lee and Beth Harwell.
Leahy: At this point.
Brewer: At this moment.
Leahy: Looming in the background, Mayor of Maury County …
Brewer: Yes.
Leahy: … Andy Ogles.
Brewer: Who is an intriguing candidate himself, also someone with a long history of conservative activism. Has an entire county in the district, the only whole county in the district that he has won as county mayor. With Beth Harwell’s bid, there are several things.
One, I think it’s important to know who the campaign team is. I think it’s important to know who’s running the race. Of course, she knows so much about politics and has been a longtime public servant and politician, been on the ballot many times. But she was last on the ballot six years ago. She came in, I believe…
Leahy: That would be four years ago.
Brewer: Four years ago. Sorry. She ran – that’s right, that’s right – four years ago.
Leahy: For 2018 governor’s race. And then six years ago for her House seat.
Brewer: She won that one.
Leahy: Won that one easily. Look, one of the things that is interesting about Beth Harwell, she was a Republican when it wasn’t cool to be a Republican here in Tennessee.
Brewer: That’s true.
Leahy: You may recall it wasn’t until 2010 that Republicans got a majority in the state House of Representatives.
Brewer: And that was my point. is that she was part of that movement to win the supermajority.
Leahy: She was elected in 1993. She toiled in the fields for two decades.
Brewer: No question. So there’s the upside. I guess the question mark is, since she last won a race six years ago, the tone and tenor of politics has changed a lot. And is she up for the kind of battle that it will take to win this seat?
Many of her races were unopposed. She did definitely fight when she was party chairman, no question about it. But it’s different when you’re the candidate. So can she convert all that knowledge and all that familiarity and all that understanding of the district and all that experience?
Can she take that and convert it into the modern campaign landscape and be a high-energy, battle-tested candidate in a field that’s going to be tough? If Baxter Lee is a self-funder, Morgan Ortagus is, rightly or wrongly …
Leahy: She’s Washington, D.C.-funded. She’s Trump-funded.
Brewer:Â Got a deep national reach when it comes to funding.
Leahy: Very little Middle Tennessee reach. I guess money is money, right?
Brewer: It spends with media, right?
Leahy: Whether you raise it in Washington or Tennessee, it spends the same way it does.
Brewer: Yes. It does. So the question I would have is, can Beth Harwell play in this environment and play effectively? Because it takes a high-energy candidate, it takes somebody who is really going to connect.
It takes somebody who is willing to really cross swords and stick their nose in and mix it up. Is that something at this stage in her career, she’s got in her?
Leahy: I think there’s only one other shoe to drop from a candidate level, and that’s whether or not Andy Ogles, Mayor of Maury County, will get in. Are there other shoes to drop beyond that’s? That’s how I see it. Am I missing somebody?
Brewer: Not that I’m aware of, Mike. Those are the names I’ve heard. There’s always the opportunity for a business candidate to get in. I think that’s where Baxter Lee is positioning himself.
And the other candidates are all going to say, well, I have a business background. But I mean, I think he’s the one coming from the private sector, really. I think Mayor Ogles is sort of the last wild-card in the court system. (Laughs) That’s another wild-card.
Leahy: The Democrats have sued just yesterday in state court about the state and House districts in the state legislature but not U.S.
Brewer: The bill about the residency.
Leahy: Oh, the residency bill and the challenges.
Brewer: The residency bill and then the Byzantine process that would have to take place.
Leahy: So we don’t know. My guess is right now Robby Starbuck will not make it on the ballot. He’ll be disqualified by the GOP bylaws. This would be my guess because he didn’t vote, as he said here on the air. He said he voted in two GOP primaries in Tennessee.
He didn’t. And I think that’s a problem. Morgan Ortagus is a little bit more involved, possibly a little bit more pressure. She’s got a better chance of getting on the ballot.
Brewer: I think so.
Leahy: But still not 100 percent. The issue is in doubt.
Brewer: Right. It is. If she’s not in, and I think she will be, but let’s just hypothetically, if she’s not in, and Ogles is not in this, sets up as a Beth Harwell versus Baxter Lee. That’s a pretty fair fight.
Leahy: And I think that would give Tennesseans an option if that’s the race. And if it turns out to be Morgan Ortagus versus Baxter Lee and Beth Harwell or Morgan Ortagus versus Baxter Lee, Beth Harwell and Andy Ogles, we don’t know what Andy is going to do.
That sets itself up as carpetbaggers versus Tennesseans. Or Donald Trump-endorsed carpetbagger versus Tennesseans.
Brewer: As we’ve been over on this show many times since all this started, there are a lot of new people in this district. And so the question becomes “how many of them are registered to vote?” The question becomes “how many participate in primary politics?”
Leahy: A very good point.
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Tune in weekdays from 5:00 – 8:00 a.m. to The Tennessee Star Report with Michael Patrick Leahy on Talk Radio 98.3 FM WLAC 1510. Listen online at iHeart Radio.
Photo “Beth Harwell” by Beth Harwell.Â
I will wait for the filing dust to settle before I comment on my choice. However, I can say right now that that choice will not be Starbucks (or whatever his real name is) nor Ortagus. Check back with me in 4 years if they are still in Tennessee and decide to run for an office.
“Big Buck” Baxter Lee is ready to spend $3 million to buy himself a seat in congress because he got up one morning and decided it would be fun to be a congressman. No connection whatsoever with conservative politics or the conservative movement and no record in politics. So on the one hand we have Beth Harwell (ACU-86%) and on the other hand we have No Record Candidate “Big Buck”. Conservatives should have no problem deciding Beth is the one we want to send to Washington.
Andy Ogles is a factor yet to be decided. However, si is Dr Hamada who would be an impact player. He is conservative, veteran, etc. Has he announced he is not running?
Also, this news outlet still doesn’t seem to understand the TN GOP bylaws. Voting in primaries is only 1 way to qualify. The bylaws are posted publicly. The primary voting is One of Two ways to qualify. Your assumption that he does not qualify solely based on voting record is incorrect.
An important question I did not hear addressed – Beth Harwell …. Did she support President Trump? If not, with what policies did she disagree? As the voting base supports President Trump and his policy stances a candidate who did not support him will be a tough sell.
Lastly, shouldn’t we all ask: Who will win in the general? It’s one thing to win in the primary from among those most tuned in and active but who will appeal to the majority of voters in the general, including the independents? For conservative voters, our goal is to win in November not just to have our personal preference win in the August primary