Live from Music Row Thursday morning on The Tennessee Star Report with Michael Patrick Leahy – broadcast on Nashville’s Talk Radio 98.3 and 1510 WLAC weekdays from 5:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m. – host Leahy welcomed all-star panelist Clint Brewer in-studio to discuss the possible course of action for Republicans to take over the U.S. House of Representatives.
Leahy: Clint had a little bit of news here in Nashville. Aaron Gulbransen has a report on it. You know, the George Floyd riots where they tried to burn down the Metro Courthouse here.
Brewer: Yes. Yes.
Leahy: One of the guys was sentenced yesterday. And here’s the report from Aaron Gulbransen.
(Aaron Gulbransen clip plays)
National Courthouse arsonist Wesley Summers, who had pled guilty in connection with the May 30th George Floyd riots, has finally been sentenced. His sentencing hearing happened on March 23rd, and he received a sentence of five years in prison with three years supervised probation release.
His sentencing had previously been postponed several times. This is Aaron Gulbranson reporting for The Tennessee Star and The Tennessee Star Report.
Leahy: The fallout from the George Floyd protests continues. What’s interesting about that is there is a congressional race that kind of centers around some of that controversy in Minneapolis, Minnesota, where it all started.
Of course, you’ve got the Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, the Somali refugee who has been one of The Squad, hates America as much as she possibly can, the far-left. And she’s being challenged in that district by a guy, a former NBA player by the name of Royce White.
And he’s 30 years old. And he was actually very high-profile in his criticism of the George Floyd protesters in Minneapolis. The left-wing Guardian has a profile of the guy and says they think he’s got a chance of beating Ilhan Omar.
This is going to be a very different year. You’ve been looking at some of the polling on this. It’s only March, the elections are in November. What can happen? A lot can happen.
Brewer: A lot can happen. You’ve seen Democrats nationally come around on two issues very recently. One has been law and order, which is stemming from the summer we saw those protests.
And some of them started peacefully, like there’s a peaceful protest demonstration in Nashville by the Capitol. But then that night the courthouse is under siege. And then you’ve got similar situations elsewhere in the country.
So law and order have become a key talking point. It has been for the Republicans. But here recently, you’ve seen Joe Biden pick it up. The president’s picked it up. And other people have.
Leahy: Let me just interject here. The key point is it’s a Democrat talking point.
Brewer: It’s obvious it must be showing up in somebody’s polls because, look, America is built on our civil liberties. And one of those is a right to peaceful gatherings and protests. But many of those were not peaceful.
And so you’ve got people, I think, on both sides of the aisle who are rejecting destroying people’s property or violence and just the whole of what we saw. They’re rejecting that activity.
And then you see states on the West Coast lifting mask mandates. And the Midterms are intensely on people’s minds. Now for Republicans. I think there’s been this feeling that it’s just going to be a sweep.
Leahy: Some people who aren’t looking at all the details –
Brewer: That’s what I’m saying.
Leahy: They are saying it’s going to be a huge sweep. It’s going to be historic. People say it’s going to be a net because all the Republicans need is five seats. A net change.
Historically, one of the biggest changes ever was in the 2010 Tea Party election, where Republicans took control with a net gain of 63 seats. Some people are saying 80 to 100. However, I think that’s too optimistic in my view. What are your thoughts?
Brewer: Yes. I agree. I think control of the Chambers will switch if Congress will switch, but I don’t think it’s going to be by an insurmountable margin that allows Republicans to hold onto it.
Leahy: And let me add to that, it’s redistricting. Every state is redistricting. And every time you turn around, the Democrats are saying, oh, those terrible Republicans are gerrymandering us out. Well, here’s Five Thirty Eight, not exactly a conservative news outlet: Fivethirtyeightcom.
I’ll just read this to you. Although Republicans went into the redistricting cycle with control over drawing more districts, it is actually Democrats who have gained ground from the process so far. Redistricting has created 11 more Democrat-leaning seats nationally.
Six fewer Republican-leaning seats and six fewer highly competitive seats. This is due to aggressive map drawing by Democrats in states such as New York, as well as court decisions overturning Republican gerrymanders in Ohio and North Carolina.
Brewer: So maybe there’s your answer as to why it’s not getting challenged in court here.
Leahy: Yes.
Brewer: I think that if you look at the aggregate of the polls that are out there right now, just a generic congressional ballot, Republicans are at about plus-three, and that’s within the margin of most polls. So it’s still going to be a fight.
Leahy: In the previous district lines, the general sort of rule of thumb among political analysts was Democrats had to have a plus-five nationally to break even because of the way the districts were designed. I think they’ve gained a little bit here.
My guess would be Democrats would now only need maybe a plus-four. That’s kind of my guess as to how that’s going on. What possibly could happen between now and November that could change the likely takeover of the House of Representatives by Republicans? Is there anything that could happen?
Brewer: I think Republicans have to be very careful with the Supreme Court nominee hearing that’s going on right now. The Kavanaugh hearings changed a lot of races against the Dems, and so I think they’ve got to be circumspect about their behavior and how they approach it. I think that’s happening for the most part.
I think that the war in Ukraine has got a lot of people’s attention. You might say, well, there’s no role for a congressman in that. But I mean, people are emotionally invested in that, here in this country and in many places. And it’s been a divisive issue for conservatives.
So, I mean, I think that’s a fact. But I think the single biggest thing that’s out there is something not terribly sexy, not terribly political, but it’s inflation.
And I think that is the one thing that hits everybody pretty easily and hits them in their pocketbooks, and voters are going to ask who’s in charge, and they’re going to look at gas prices, they’re going to look at inflation and they’re going to say how can we fix this ourselves? And it might be in the voting booth.
Listen to the full interview :
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Tune in weekdays from 5:00 – 8:00 a.m. to The Tennessee Star Report with Michael Patrick Leahy on Talk Radio 98.3 FM WLAC 1510. Listen online at iHeart Radio.
