Two polls conducted after the debate between Kari Lake and Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03) show their race to represent Arizona in the U.S. Senate could be narrowing as some cast early ballots.
Lake (pictured above) used the debate to remind viewers of her decades in broadcast news, repeatedly call Gallego’s campaign the “extreme makeover version” of the candidate, and criticize the Democrat’s record in Congress, while Gallego attacked Lake’s ties to former President Donald Trump and her efforts to contest the gubernatorial election results in 2022.
The debate was held last Wednesday, and a A Trafalgar Group survey conducted between Thursday and Sunday found Gallego leading by 3.7 percent, with the Democrat at 47.6 percent and Lake at 43.9 percent. An additional 2.8 percent said they plan to vote for another candidate and 5.6 percent remained undecided.
Pollsters reported a margin of error of 2.9 percent, leaving Gallego’s lead just outside the limit of a statistical tie.
Another poll by ActiVote was held on Thursday, and the group reported Gallego has a 5.6-percent lead among Arizona voters, at 52.8 percent of support while Lake trailed at 47.2 percent. However, the pollsters reported a larger margin of error at 4.9 percent.
Lake margins in both surveys are better than seen in the RealClearPolling average, which shows Gallego leading Lake by 6.5 percent, and suggest Gallego would win with 49.4 percent of the vote.
A third poll by New York Times and Siena, which was conducted before and after the debate, could suggest Lake’s performance had an impact on the other surveys.
The poll found Gallego (pictured here) with a 9-point lead, at 48 percent of the vote, while 39 percent told the pollsters they plan to vote for Lake. An additional 12 percent said they were undecided or refused the question, and less than 1 percent of respondents said they would vote for another candidate.
Additionally, while the Siena survey found Gallego with a significant lead over Lake, it found that 49 percent of respondents want to see the Republican Party control the Senate in January, while 44 percent said they want Democrats to retain control.
Conducted October 7-10, Siena reported a margin of error of 3.9 percent for its Arizona data.
The survey’s results are closer to a poll released prior to the debate, which found Gallego had a 10-point lead over Lake, which found 5 percent remained undecided.
While Lake continues to trail in the polls, their release came as most pundits agreed the Republican won the debate against Gallego, with even consultants who back the Democrat acknowledging Lake is “extraordinarily good at interjecting and creating a narrative on top of somebody else because she’s going to shout you down.”
Early voting in Arizona began on Friday and will continue until November 3.
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Tom Pappert is the lead reporter for The Tennessee Star, and also reports for The Pennsylvania Daily Star and The Arizona Sun Times. Follow Tom on X/Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Kari Lake” by Gage Skidmore CC2.0.
