Former President Donald Trump continues to lead President Joe Biden in Arizona, according to a new poll released by Arizona pollster Noble Predictive Insights on Tuesday.
Conducted between October 25 and October 31, the poll found Trump leads Biden by 8 percentage points. Forty-six percent of Arizona voters support Trump, while 38 percent support Biden and 16 percent told pollsters they were unsure. Trump’s lead was well outside the margin of error, which pollsters reported to be 3.1 percent.
Pollsters found Trump enjoys a higher level of support from Arizona’s independent voters than Biden. They found the former president has the support of 37 percent of independent voters, compared to Biden’s 34 percent. However, 29 percent of respondents said they remained unsure.
When pollsters asked voters about a head-to-head race between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) and Biden, the Florida politician won, but only by 3 percent. DeSantis and Biden were nearly tied in support from independent voters, with 33 percent supporting DeSantis and 34 percent supporting Biden. About one-third remained undecided.
The poll may represent Biden’s worst polling performance yet in Arizona, where he was declared the victor in 2020 with just over 10,000 more votes than Trump. It also seems to follow a pattern of poor polling for Biden in swing states.
Three surveys conducted by other pollsters, around the same time Noble Predictive Insights gathered its data, found Trump leads Biden in Arizona, though they vary on exactly how strongly the former president polls.
A New York Times poll showed Trump beating Biden by 5 percent in Arizona as of early November, while an Emerson College survey showed Biden losing the state by 2 percent on November 9. Another poll was released on November 10, and it shows Trump leading Biden by 4 percent.
Additionally, the Noble Predictive Insights survey also shows Trump with a dominant lead in the race for the Republican nomination among Arizona voters, leading DeSantis by 37 percent.
Trump led the field with 53 percent of support, while DeSantis placed second with 16 percent. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy placed third at 9 percent, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley received 8 percent, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie garnered 3 percent.
Pollsters found former Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) at 3 percent and 1 percent, respectively, but both ended their campaigns after the polling was conducted and before the data was released.
The poor polling for Biden comes after Gallup polling his approval sank to 37 percent at the end of October, driven by an 11 percent drop in approval among Democrats. The data showed just 35 percent of independents, 5 percent of Republicans, and 75 percent of Democrats support the commander-in-chief.
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Tom Pappert is the lead reporter for The Tennessee Star, and also reports for The Georgia Star News, The Virginia Star, and the Arizona Sun Times. Follow Tom on X/Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Joe Biden” by Joe Biden. Background Photo “Arizona Capitol” by Adavyd. CC BY-SA 3.0.
