Scott Rasmussen, the pollster with the Napolitan News Service, said the 2024 presidential race “could go in either direction” between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
In his latest national poll of 2,441 likely voters released on Friday, Rasmussen found Harris up by 3 percentage points over Trump (50 percent-47 percent). With leaners, Harris was still found to be leading Trump by three points (51 percent-48 percent).
Despite Harris’ lead, Rasmussen said on Friday’s episode of The Michael Patrick Leahy Show, “This race is very close and if anybody tells you they know who’s going to win, they’re either lying to you or deluding themselves.”
“We can’t possibly know with this, and the reason is because Donald Trump, obviously, is very well known. Whatever, whether you love him or hate him, people have a strong opinion about him. Kamala Harris, on the other hand, is virtually unknown. When she first won the nomination, the only issue people identified with her was her pro-choice position,” Rasmussen added.
Rasmussen pointed out that while the race in the battleground states is important, all of those states remain “very competitive.”
“At this point in time, you’ve got to acknowledge the possibility that they’re all very competitive. I would expect Trump to win the four southern swing states – Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina – if nothing dramatic changes,” Rasmussen said.
“Pennsylvania could end up being the single most important state in this election, but right now, You can dive into the numbers all you want, but what’s really going to matter is what happens in the real world between now and November 5,” Rasmussen added.
Rasmussen said the September 10 debate between Harris and Trump, hosted by ABC, will be a big factor in the race’s future.
“A lot will happen in the next few weeks, and it could go in either direction. I think, ironically, the debate this year – debates don’t usually matter – but it could be very significant,” Rasmussen said.
Another factor that Rasmussen said may determine the race is the public’s “feeling about their personal finances” leading up to Election Day.
“In a purely political sense, the only thing that matters about the economy between now and November 5 is how people are feeling about their personal finances. Right now, they’re pretty negative as 25 percent are saying their finances are getting better and 38 percent say they’re getting worse. If those numbers deteriorate significantly, that’s going to be really bad for Harris. If they end up actually improving, if people become less pessimistic, that will be problematic for Trump…The way people perceive the economy is through their own finances,” Rasmussen explained.
Rasmussen said the race will be determined by voters who make their voices heard at the ballot box.
“The bigger challenge in determining who’s going to vote or how this election will turn out is much more along the lines of who’s actually going to show up and vote. There aren’t a lot of people trying to decide if they will vote for Trump or Harris, but there’s a fair number of people on each side who are wondering if it’s worth it: Does it really make that much of a difference? And whether they show up and vote or not, that’s going to be pretty decisive,” Rasmussen said.
Watch the full interview:
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Kaitlin Housler is a reporter at The Tennessee Star and The Star News Network. Follow Kaitlin on X / Twitter.
Photo “Kamala Harris” by Kamala Harris.
