So much for indictments, mug shots, and the first GOP presidential primary debate. Teflon Donald Trump remains the clear favorite among Republican voters, according to a new Economist/YouGov poll.
The online survey of 1,500 adults, most of them registered voters, provides an interesting snapshot of just how important last week’s debate was — or wasn’t — and how unpopular some of the GOP presidential candidates are.
Former President Trump continues to dominate the competition, with 51 percent support of respondents who identified as Republicans or independents who lean Republican, according to the poll. Trump holds a 37 percentage point lead over his closest competitor, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (14 percent). Ohio biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is in third place, with 5 percent support, followed by former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (4 percent), former Vice President Mike Pence (3 percent), and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and U.S. Senator Tim Scott (SC), each at 2 percent.
The poll of web-based interviews was conducted Aug. 26-29, at least three days after the debate, which Trump skipped, and at least two days after the former president was booked on felony charges at the Fulton County Jail with his mug shot plastered everywhere online, on air and in front-page print.
It was Trump’s fourth indictment in less than five months, this time on charges the GOP presidential front-runner attempted to interfere in Georgia’s administration of the 2020 presidential election.
It doesn’t matter. Trump’s numbers among Republican voters keep climbing with each new charge. Many see the indictments driven by highly partisan Democrat prosecutors and a weaponized U.S. Department of Justice as a political witch hunt targeting President Joe Biden’s — and the left’s — No. 1 political enemy.
A Morning Consult poll conducted last weekend found that 62 percent of potential primary voters think Trump has the best chance of beating Biden, up 9 percentage points over the previous week and matching a high in Morning Consult’s tracking of the question since April.
In a separate Morning Consult survey, also taken after the debate and Trump’s arrest, the former president was leading DeSantis by 44 percentage points among potential Republican primary voters (58 percent to 14 percent). That survey also found Ramaswamy in third place, with 10 percent support from the GOP’s potential 2024 electorate.
Trump leads DeSantis by 44 points among potential GOP primary voters (58% to 14%) following the first GOP presidential debate and his booking at a Georgia prison on charges related to his efforts to overturn the state’s 2020 presidential election result. https://t.co/rXb0AennUX pic.twitter.com/1H7FbvG9n7
— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) August 30, 2023
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a Georgia resident, told Fox News this week that it’s not surprising Trump’s polling numbers continue to climb as his legal troubles mount.
“I think that Trump is not a candidate — Trump is the leader of a movement,” Gingrich told host Mark Levin on “Life, Liberty & Levin.”
“I think many people who may or may not like Trump’s personality, but they look at this and they think, ‘Here are my choices. I’m going to side with a totally corrupt administration or I’m going to side with the guy who has the guts to stand there and take the beating and keep coming,” the former speaker said.
An Emerson College poll conducted August 25-26 did find Trump’s support dipped 6 percentage points following the debate. It also found Trump leading Biden in a 2024 presidential election hypothetical matchup.
The Economist/YouGov poll found only 10 percent of respondents watched the entire debate, and only 9 percent watched part of it. Most watched clips or highlights of the debate or read or watched news stories analyzing it. And 35 percent said they hadn’t heard anything about the debate.
More than 11 million viewers tuned in to the Milwaukee debate on Fox News, according to ratings data from Nielsen.
Mark Graul, a longtime Wisconsin Republican strategist, said the debate is one piece, a small piece of the presidential campaign puzzle.
“Frankly, a week from now nobody will remember the debate and they’ll be on to the next thing,” Graul said late last week.
The Economist/YouGov poll uncovered some interesting sentiments among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
Nearly half of respondents (49 percent) said they’d be disappointed if Pence became the GOP nominee. Christie generated 53 percent disappointment. Asa Hutchinson didn’t fare much better, which 40 percent of respondents saying they would be disappointed if the former Arkansas governor becomes the nominee.
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M.D. Kittle is the National Political Editor for The Star News Network.
