Ruben Gallego sent a panicky text message to supporters this week, after a new poll showed Kari Lake pulling ahead in the U.S. Senate race just days before the election. A survey released on Tuesday from Data Orbital showed Lake ahead by about a point, 45.2 percent to 44.5 percent. Data Orbital is ranked the eighth highest accurate pollster out of hundreds of polling companies by the polling aggregator site 538.
📊 ARIZONA POLL: @Data_Orbital
🟥 Trump: 49.7% (+7.8)
🟦 Harris: 41.9%
🟪 Other: 2.0%
——
AZ Senate
🟥 Lake: 45.2% (+0.7)
🟦 Gallego: 44.5%
🟪 Other: 1.6%#8 (2.8/3.0) | 10/26-28 | 550 LV | ±4.26https://t.co/f0qlS4G1kE pic.twitter.com/WGwtGrFNNX
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 29, 2024
AtlasIntel, which is ranked 22nd for accuracy by 538 and considered very reputable by the left-leaning site MediaBias/FactCheck, released a poll about the same time which showed Gallego just one point ahead of Lake. However, that survey was heavily weighted with women responding, who trend more Democratic than men, surveying about 53 percent women to 46 percent men. It also failed to survey Democrats and Republicans relative to their numbers in the state; oversampling Democrats.
Gallego texted his supporters Wednesday morning:
Ruben Gallego here. I didn’t expect to be in this position a week out from the election, but we just got some incredibly troubling news. … What if I told you that earlier today we got not one, but TWO POLLS showing this race tied, or worse? The first, from Data Orbital, has us down a point to Kari Lake. The second, from AtlasIntel, has us ahead, but barely — just half a point. What if I told you that the reason our race is narrowing is because our fundraising absolutely fell apart earlier this month? Lake has more resources than we do now, and she’s funneling all of it into attack ads against me.
The text concluded by urging supporters to contribute money.
Gallego texted his followers a few days earlier pleading for money since he said Lake had surpassed him with cash on hand. He raised three times as much money as Lake throughout the campaign, which many believe was due to illegal “Smurfing.” However, he blew through the cash quickly.
During a press conference Lake held with Trump’s former acting Director of Intelligence Richard Grenell on Wednesday, an Arizona Republic reporter admitted that Lake is ahead in the polls and has more cash. The Republic’s opinion writers have attacked Lake in many articles.
Polls last month showed the race neck and neck.
Many believe Gallego’s drop in money and polling is due to his weak position on border security. Violent crime is soaring in the state, and Arizonans place the issue at the top of their concerns along with the economy when polled. Gallego has been running to the right on the issue, touting his support of a Democrat-backed border bill, but his record includes flip-flopping. In February 2023, he voted against House Joint Resolution 24, which sought to prevent illegal immigrants from voting in local elections in Washington, D.C. When the vote came up again last May, he voted for the measure.
If Lake takes the Senate seat, it could put Republicans in control of the Senate.
The Data Orbital poll also found that Donald Trump was leading Kamala Harris in the state by about 7 points, 49.7 percent to 41.9 percent.
Arizona is one of several battleground states where GOTV efforts have resulted in more Republicans voting early than Democrats, which is unusual considering in recent years Republicans have waited to vote on Election Day due to concerns of election fraud. Republicans are outnumbering Democrats by about 9 percent in mail-in ballots and in-person early voting throughout the state, 43 percent to 34 percent.
In contrast, only 23 percent of independents have voted early. Independents tend to break evenly for Republicans versus Democrats, however, polls this year show them breaking for Trump. A 2015 survey by Arizona State University’s Morrison Institute for Public Policy found that 14.6 percent of Arizona independents identify as conservatives, 12.1 percent as liberals, and 73.3 percent as moderates. A Gallup poll from early October found that 49 percent of independents nationwide are leaning towards Republicans and 42 percent towards Democrats.
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Rachel Alexander is a reporter at The Arizona Sun Times and The Star News Network. Follow Rachel on Twitter / X. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Ruben Gallego” by Ruben Gallego and Kari Lake Press Conference” is by Kari Lake.
