Dave McCormick is statistically tied with Senator Bob Casey among Pennsylvania voters, according to a Thursday poll released after their first debate on October 3, indicating the race may be tightening in the final weeks before Election Day.
The Emerson College survey of 1,000 likely Pennsylvania voters found the U.S. Senate race in a dead heat, with Casey leading at 47.7 percent and McCormick narrowly trailing at 46 percent.
Pollsters gathered their data between October 5 and October 8, and reported a margin of error of 3 percent, leaving McCormick and Casey statistically tied.
The survey is the second poll to show a tight race since the October 3 debate after Insider Advantage reported results on Thursday showing Casey leading McCormick by just 2 percent, with the Democrat receiving 47 percent of the vote to McCormick’s 45 percent.
Both surveys suggest a tighter election than the RealClearPolling average of polls, which shows Casey with a 3.9 percent lead.
McCormick quickly claimed victory after the debate during an appearance on Fox News, accusing Casey of committing personal attacks due to a flimsy record.
“When you’re a guy that’s been in elected office for 30 years and born with a political spoon in your mouth, and you haven’t done anything, you attack your opponent,” McCormick told “America’s Newsroom” host Bill Hemmer.
Casey’s campaign similarly declared the Democrat won the debate in a press release, highlighting his arguments against “McCormick’s dangerous anti-choice agenda.”
A final debate is scheduled to broadcast on October 15 on 6abc Philadelphia and online.
The Emerson College poll also suggested a tight race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, with Trump narrowly leading by just 1.1 percent. Trump led Harris 49.3-48.2, while an additional 2.6 percent said they intend to vote for someone else or remain undecided.
When pollsters pressed undecided voters to choose between Trump and Harris, the former president’s lead shrank to just 0.7 percent.
Despite Trump narrowly leading Harris in the poll, 51.9 percent of respondents said they expect Harris to emerge the winner in November.
When pollsters asked respondents to rank their most important issue ahead of Election Day, 46 percent said the economy was their top concern.
The only other issue that received a double-digit response was immigration, as 10.2 percent ranked it as their top issue. An additional 9 percent said housing affordability, 8.8 percent said education, 8 percent said threats to democracy, and just 5.5 percent said abortion access.
McCormick joined Trump for rallies in Reading and Scranton on Wednesday, when he told voters that November 8 offers, “a choice between strength, the strength of Donald Trump, and the weakness of Biden and Harris. It’s the choice between common sense policies.”
Trump similarly urged his supporters to vote for McCormick to “defeat your disastrous, radical Democrat Senator Bob Casey,” noting McCormick “was a great soldier. He was a great businessman,” and “will be such a great Senator.”
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Tom Pappert is the lead reporter for The Tennessee Star, and also reports for The Pennsylvania Daily Star and The Arizona Sun Times. Follow Tom on X/Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Dave McCormick” by Dave McCormick. Photo “Bob Casey” by Bob Casey.
