Six Potential Challengers to Bob Corker in the 2018 Tennessee U.S. Senate Republican Primary

With the new Tennessee Star polling data revealing significant vulnerabilities for Senator Bob Corker among likely Republican Primary voters, the speculation about potential opponents who may seek to exploit those vulnerabilities has increased dramatically. (Regardless of how many think about it, if more than one conservative challenger actually gets in the race they give it to Corker. And a successful race will almost certainly require a minimum of $7 million.)

Who are these potential challengers? In alphabetical order:

Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn. Topping the wish list of many Tennessee conservatives is the Representative from Middle Tennessee’s 7th District. Having represented a wide swath of West Tennessee before redistricting she has a significant base of support in both Middle and West Tennessee, which was reflected in the cross tabs in The Tennessee Star Poll head-to-head poll with Corker. Blackburn won the Middle portion of the state outside the margin of error (43-38) and beat Corker handily in West Tennessee (49-36). Statewide the two were within the margin of error with Corker edging Blackburn 41-39.

A Tennessean story that was widely repeated across the state and country reported that Blackburn has indicated that she will NOT run for the Senate in 2018. A closer reading of her actual quote indicates that, at least for now, she is focused on doing her job in Congress and running for reelection. Her statement was not as definitive as the headline indicated, and all other reporting is based on that one story. She may indeed opt out of challenging Corker, preferring to “wait and see” whether he actually runs, or whether Lamar Alexander decides to retire rather than seek reelection in 2020. Blackburn seems to see an “open seat” opportunity as her best option, but if Alexander doesn’t retire her next “open seat” opportunity may not come until 2024. She seems to have a prime opportunity in 2018 if she is willing to seize it, and there is no guarantee that the landscape will be as favorable to her in 2020 or beyond.

Since the Tennessean story landed there has been no comment or response to it from the Blackburn team. To some, that silence appears to indicate that while the story was not specific in her rejecting a Senate run but it may nevertheless be accurate. Continued silence from Blackburn will essentially confirm the report and foreclose the option for her.

Mayor Tim Burchett. As Republicans look down the list of potential challengers to Corker an East Tennessee populist conservative Republican Mayor of Knox County will increasingly draw attention. Burchett is a proven vote-getter who is term limited from seeking reelection to his current position. A former State Senator and two term County Mayor, Burchett always seems to exceed expectations and has great personal appeal. He has the largest political base of any of the potential candidates other than Blackburn, and the East Tennessee factor should not be underestimated.

He is reportedly considering a shot at the Second District Congressional seat held by Congressman Jimmy Duncan, and would almost certainly run for that seat if Duncan retires. He may run for that seat whether Duncan retires or not. An East Tennessee base, combined with Corker’s low approval numbers in Middle and West Tennessee could make Burchett an interesting and formidable prospect.

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Joe Carr. Former State Representative Joe Carr mounted a strong challenge to Senator Lamar Alexander in 2014, holding Alexander to under 49% and carrying about two dozen counties despite being seriously outspent, particularly in the final few weeks of the campaign. He made a late run against Congresswoman Diane Black in the 6th District in 2016 and was again outspent by a huge amount. Voter turnout was exceptionally low as the Trump voters who turned out in March did not return to the polls in August and the margin was about 2-1 in Black’s favor. Head-to-head with Corker, The Tennessee Star Poll shows Corker prevailing today by a 51-24 margin, with 25% undecided. In Middle Tennessee, where Carr is better known, the margin narrows to 43-31.

Carr is likely to pick any future political race carefully, and another long shot, particularly without adequate funding, is probably not something he will pursue this cycle. However, Carr is known as a strong conservative who does not shy from a fight, regardless of the odds. In 2014, for instance, initial polling showed Alexander would beat him by 40 points, and in the end, the differential was only 9 points.

State Senator Mark Green. Green announced a long anticipated run for Governor of Tennessee early in 2017 but his campaign was sidelined when President Donald J. Trump nominated him to become Secretary of the Army. When he withdrew from the nomination after at least one Democrat Senator promised to put a “hold” on his consideration, Green considered renewing his campaign but chose not to reengage, promising to explore other options to help “drain the swamp” in Washington DC. If Blackburn runs for the Corker seat look for Green to immediately run for Blackburn’s congressional seat. If not, pressure on Green to make the race will intensify. With a head-to-head race, and the financial resources available to Green in a Senate challenge, he would have a good shot at winning, or getting close enough to mount an almost immediate campaign for the Alexander seat with an organization in place, much higher name recognition than he has today, and with the wind at his back.

The advantages that Blackburn would have in an open seat fight today would be narrower, or perhaps flipped in Green’s favor, for a 2020 open seat battle between the two. At this point, Green seems to be waiting for Marsha, who is waiting on Corker.

Representative Andy Holt. West Tennessee conservative State Representative Andy Holt (R-Dresden) is considering challenging Corker based on the polling data that shows him vulnerable, particularly in West Tennessee. Lack of statewide name recognition and funding would make Holt a very long shot to run or win. But if others higher up the list all choose to stay on the sidelines, Holt could put himself in the game.

A strong Second Amendment advocate and pig farmer, Holt would appeal to the West Tennessee conservative Tea Party base but without funding to broaden that base, particularly in other regions of the state, Holt may look to other political opportunities closer to home in the near term.

Andrew Ogles. Americans for Prosperity State Director Andrew Ogles is a formidable conservative policy and political leader who has the grassroots base of AFP at his disposal should he run. He also has a pretty compelling story to tell and could represent a new generation of leadership in challenging Corker. He does not have a federal campaign war chest at his disposal like Blackburn, or the self funding capability of Green to kickstart a campaign, so funding would be his first hurdle.

With adequate funding, which would highlight Corker’s vulnerability and raise Ogles’ name identification, the race would likely tighten quickly, particularly if Ogles coalesced the conservative base so that he would have a true head-to-head race. Given Ogles’ lack of name identification, Corker’s 52-15 advantage over Ogles in The Tennessee Star Poll likely reflects Corker’s ceiling and Ogles’ starting point. If Blackburn and Green both take a pass, Ogles will likely be among a small list who will get a lot more attention from the grassroots activists and potential funders — in-state and out. The issues that fueled Blackburn’s strong showing against Corker in The Tennessee Star Poll would be the same ones that Ogles would hammer home if he has the resources to start early and finish strong.

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