Top-Ranked Political Advisor Ward Baker Delivers Four-Part Master Class on 2024 Election Cycle

Political consultant Ward Baker joined Wednesday’s episode of The Tennessee Star Report with Michael Patrick Leahy in-studio to discuss his insights to the state of the 2024 election cycle across the 50 states.

With the Iowa caucuses less than two weeks away and Super Tuesday a scant nine weeks after that on March 5, Baker takes listeners inside the campaigns as he shares the polling, players and places that matter most in 2024.

Part One – ‘The Ballot is Very Misleading:’ Ward Baker Tells Listeners How He Evaluates Candidates and Campaigns in the Election Cycle

Michael Patrick Leahy: You work with Senator Marsha Blackburn and Senator Bill Hagerty.

In fact, I recall the very first interview Senator Hagerty did when he announced was in our studios and he’s doing a great job now.

You and I were talking about some polling.

What do you have? What’s the latest?

I think there’s a poll that was released. By USA Today/Suffolk that had some interesting info, but I think you’ve got even more recent data.

Ward Baker: I think there’s a couple of things to look at, Michael.

One, I would like to set the parameters for everyone. I want them to think about this: never trust The Tennessean.

And so whatever The Tennessean has, think the opposite. And I’ll talk about that in a second.

Opposite world.

Michael Patrick Leahy: Yes, sir. I’m with you on that. Reverse psychology. We call The Tennessean a little outpost of Gannett-a-saurus.

Ward Baker: Well, if you’ll remember in 2018, we handed out bumper stickers and had t-shirts made: “Annoy The Tennessean vote Blackburn.”

Let’s talk about a couple things. One, they had Bredesen up 4, 4, and 5 the last week of the election. Their poll. This is 2018.

We had Blackburn up 7, 10, and 10. She won by 11.8.

Michael Patrick Leahy: She smashed.

Ward Baker: She’s just canceled TV the last weekend to help pay staff through the holidays; Tennessean said, ‘She must be broke’ – but let’s just think about the numbers.

When you look at numbers with Trump and Biden, I don’t want you to look at the ballot. The ballot is very misleading.

So the first thing, when we get numbers, we take the ballot out and I want to look at job approval, I want to look at the economy, and I want to look at immigration. And I want to look, ‘Do you feel you’re better off now than four years ago?’

Michael Patrick Leahy: So we’re those are the key questions as opposed to the horse race.

Ward Baker: I believe so. And this is what we go off. So I’m going to go off a couple of numbers that I want everyone to think about, and this is as of this morning, this hot off the presses.

So the generic ballot, what does the generic ballot mean? The generic ballot means how do you plan on voting Republican or Democrat? In 2016, the Wall Street Journal had it at D plus one. In 2016, in 2020, the Wall Street Journal had it at D plus three.

So D plus one in ’16, we won. We held the Senate. I was running the Senate committee at the time. There was all these articles saying, we’re going to lose the Senate. Donald Trump won and a landslide. D+3 in 2020. Very, very close race this morning. It is R+5 in the Wall Street Journal.

Republican plus five this morning.

Now, when you look at other polls–

Michael Patrick Leahy: That actually, that number is the highest that I’ve heard.

Ward Baker: It’s the highest we’ve ever had since 1994.

In 2010, we had R+2, R+2, and R+1 the week before the election.

Michael Patrick Leahy: And in 2010, just for our listeners, 2010 before that election

Ward Baker: That’s when you became famous. You led the Tea Party Movement.

Michael Patrick Leahy: we got a net gain of 63. That’s correct. Seats and John Boehner became Speaker.

Ward Baker: That’s right. Yeah, that’s right. In 1994.

It was R+5 – R+5 and R+4 in the poll.

Now we are a long way off from the election. We are light years away but when you look at where we are today the numbers have never been better. So we’re R5.

Let’s look at something else. How is Biden doing on the economy? He’s at 37 and 59. He’s at 37 agree with him – fave – and 59 unfave.

How was Barack Obama doing on the economy? In 2016 he was a 45.

He’s eight points worse.

And you go all the way back. How was Bill Clinton doing in 1994? He was a 43. He was underwater 37.

By the way, there’s two 35s out, but we’ll go with the 37. Okay. We’ll go with the 37 all margin, but even in the margin, he’s the lowest it’s ever been.

Let’s look at some more:

65 percent of Americans think the economy over the past two years has gotten worse, while just 21 percent say it’s gotten better.

21 percent more voters trust Republicans over Democrats on the economy. 21%

What was it in ’16? It was 10.

What was it in ’10? It was 16 on those two back-to-back numbers.

Crom Carmichael: Now I have a question. I have predicted on this very show that Joe Biden will not be the Democrat nominee that–

Ward Baker: You’re wrong that that is already.

Crom Carmichael: Well, I’m just making my prediction.

Ward Baker: Your prediction is wrong.

Crom Carmichael: So if but if my prediction turns out to be correct–

Ward Baker: It won’t.

Crom Carmichael: But if it were–

Ward Baker: It won’t.

Crom Carmichael: Would it change the polls?

Ward Baker: Great question.

Ward Baker: The premise is completely bogus but great question. I’m glad we’re here to kill time.

Let’s talk about a couple things.

One: December 17th was the final day – I might be off a state or two – of 23 states final days for the ballot.

January 7th, I believe is 11 more states 11. So that takes you I think overall and I think Tennessee’s was December 5th.

I think overall that takes you to 43 states.

Okay. Now let me tell you about Indiana: You have to have 500 registered voters in every congressional district that are primary voters, Democrat or Republican, right? And you have – each one – and they have to be signed and signed in-person with a voter from Indiana.

So it can’t be you coming in. Does that make sense? It has to be someone. So that takes a long time.

Michael Patrick Leahy: It’s a lot harder to petition-harvest. January 11.

Ward Baker: That’s right. That’s January 11. Pennsylvania as well. So once you do that, his name is going to be on the ballot now when it goes to Chicago and it’s on the floor, their delegate system is very, very different than ours because they have binding delegates.

So their delegates say they can’t, he can’t move, they can’t move the first couple of rounds. So I think it’s going to be very, very difficult.

The only person that I think that could make a play is someone because I listen to you, Crom. The only person I think that could make a play is the governor of Illinois.

It’s in Chicago; he’s given more money to the committee men. He’s the only one I think that can. Let’s get back

Michael Patrick Leahy: to some of the polling stuff. You got two minutes in this segment. What are the other key things? Crom totally threw me off on that. He threw me off.

Crom Carmichael: Crom is here in the primaries. I think that Biden, I think that Biden will.

And that’s what I’m saying. I think that he will announce it as a health issue right before the convention.

Ward Baker: No, politicians have ego. You’re wrong.

Okay. By a nine point margin, voters see the Democrat party is more extreme, is more extreme. That’s five points more than ever before.

Crom Carmichael: And that’s the party.

Ward Baker: That’s the party. Not Biden.

Ward Baker: That’s the party. That’s the party.

And so among general election voters, top issues are the economy, The economy, Joe Biden and the Democrats are worse than they ever have been before.

Number two is immigration. Immigration. It’s worse than ever before. Worse than ever before.

You have Democrat mayors writing op-eds saying we have to, we have to do something and the White House is now continuing to push back.

Michael Patrick Leahy: No and what, what other key elements?

Ward Baker: I think we should come back. I want to go state by state. If we have a little bit of time, we do the latest numbers and we can talk about the primary as well.

Michael Patrick Leahy: to do, because this is exciting for our listeners. Well, when we come back, we’ll have a commentary and then when we’ll do the breakdown state by state 2024 election, you’re listening to The Tennessee Star Report in the studio with me, the original all star panelist, Carmichael, and political legend, Ward Baker.

Back after this.

 

Part Two – State by State – a Breakdown of the Primaries and the Importance of Working the Iowa Caucus

Michael Patrick Leahy: Patrick Leahy. It’s 11:33 a. m. We’re broadcasting live from our studios on Music Row in Nashville, Tennessee.

In-studio, Ward Baker, great political consultant, and Crom Carmichael, the original All Star panelist. Crom, during the break you posed a question to both of us which I thought was a very good question.

Crom Carmichael: Yeah, and that is what is what purpose I’m really talking more about the Republican side of the aisle. What purpose does Iowa serve since winning Iowa has rarely resulted in winning the nomination?

Ward Baker: I think it serves a couple of things.

One, it’s a thousand miles from DC. And that’s important.

Two, I think caucuses are really, really tough, and having to be there and go county to county and to people, and also Iowa’s economy.

What’s the number one thing, the number one export for Iowa? Corn.

What’s number two? Pork.

For number three, ethanol.

We need to protect the farmers. It’s farming issues.

And everyone says when they go out there and they meet with Iowa, it’s different than any other state. Their top three issues are farming and Lord knows, we don’t need China or any more of this buying these lands and talk to the real farmers of America.

It’s a thousand miles from D.C., make these politicians come out there and be with the real part of America. I think it’s very important.

Crom Carmichael: I’m not saying it’s unimportant. I was truly asking what role it plays since it doesn’t pick the ultimate winner.

And I think that your explanation is a really good one. It refines the process from there forward, even if they pick somebody who is second or third

Michael Patrick Leahy: If you’re going to have a presidential nomination process, which we do have, you got to start in some state, right in Iowa, you know, it’s of a size.

It’s got four congressional districts. It’s geographically large. There are 99 counties.

You know the answer to this. What do they call it? The full Grassley. If you visit all 99 counties, it’s a full Grassley.

Ward Baker: Every other Senator copies him because he has sort of set the standard.

Crom Carmichael: Now, there are the first four primaries. I may not get them in order and I think I have them correct in terms of it’s Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Are they the first four?

Ward Baker: No, it’s Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, Michigan.

Crom Carmichael: Okay. But the first four, and those are really four.

And then Michigan; those are four very diverse states.

Michael Patrick Leahy: It’s a good, it’s a good starting point. Here’s one thing though.

What I love about Iowa, the process, it’s not a primary. I think it’s, I’m traditionalist, I suppose, after 50 years, it started with ’72 doing the caucuses. This is classic American democracy, American political participation.

That’s right. You have got to go. You got to build an organization. You have to go in and they have, you know, like a thousand caucuses around the state and then everyone they’ll meet in a gym. On that night. And they’ll have everybody, you know, represent their candidate and make the case. It’s just sort of classic sort of how we should engage citizens in the process.

I like that part of it. Now, what does it mean? Back to your question, right?

Well, it means that one candidate is able to organize Iowa better than others. We all remember, of course, President Steve Forbes, right, who won Iowa. We remember President Ted Cruz, who won Iowa.

So, it’s sort of a starting point. I don’t think it’s necessarily a harbinger of who will win the nomination.

Your thoughts, Ward Baker?

Ward Baker: I think Trump wins Iowa over 50 percent. Run a great campaign. I believe Nikki Haley will finish second. Even I think she’s catching up. She has still been outspent by Tim Scott to this day, who’s out of the race.

This shows that they’ve been lean and mean. They’re spending their money late, which is smart, especially in a caucus because there’s not early voting.

DeSantis has outspent her 2-to-1 in Iowa. And so she has come up. And so when you think about this now, they go to New Hampshire.

Let’s look at the New Hampshire numbers.

Latest number is 44 Trump, Haley 30, Christy 12. 44, 30, 12, Trump, Haley, Christy; Ron DeSantis is at six. He’s dropped five points in New Hampshire. He’s put all his money in Iowa. Not a good sign. So will there be enough independence for Nikki to catch up to Trump? I still believe. Might be wrong.

I still believe Trump’s going to win New Hampshire, and then it’s over the governor there.

Michael Patrick Leahy: Chris Sununu, the son of John Sununu. Yeah,

Ward Baker: he’s not like his dad.

Michael Patrick Leahy: Yeah, he hates Donald Trump hates him hates him with a passion. Yeah. And the fellow governor with Ron DeSantis DeSantis had an expectation that Sununu would endorse him.

He didn’t; he endorsed Nikki Haley.

Ward Baker: And Kim Reynolds endorsed DeSantis hasn’t really done anything.

Michael Patrick Leahy: Why with such a great track record as governor in Florida, Crom, why is DeSantis performing so poorly?

Crom Carmichael: That is a great question because as a governor, he has been exceptional, not just good. He’s been exceptional.

I would say he’s the best governor. In the country in terms of if you look at just across his state. He’s held spending in check. He’s reduced the debt.

He’s decertifying, it looks like, the teachers unions in Miami because  they raised the bar that you have to have 60 percent participation and they only have 58 percent and he is going to, I think, if it is under 60, then he’s going to aggressively decertify them.

Ward Baker: Now, let’s look, let’s think about this real quick. Sure. He looks like a quarterback. He talks like a quarterback. He’s got the heart of a punter.

At the end of the day he flew around in a G5 in every county instead of doing the full Grassley and going there.

And then people said he would give a speech and then leave.

When you look at Donald Trump giving a speech, former president, what does he do? They say he stays till he shakes every single hand.

What did they say Nikki Haley does? Nikki Haley is known for doing what? Staying and picking up the folding chairs and they said, then she would go to everyone, her event, she’s famous for cleaning up and working with people and they respect that in New Hampshire, same thing.

And he says, why go and give the speech and I’ll leave. You gotta work it.

Crom Carmichael: I’m not trying to argue whether or not he’s a good campaigner. I’m simply saying as the governor, he’s been exceptional.

Ward Baker: But at the end of the day, that’s not gonna get you there in a presidential.

Obviously you can’t just go to the tanning bed. You gotta work out also.

Crom Carmichael: Yeah. Obviously it’s not.

Michael Patrick Leahy: I think you’re right. It’s great to have a great governor, but if voters decided who their presidential nominee would be based upon the record of somebody as a governor, we would have had president Scott Walker, , who was a great governor in Wisconsin.

But just, you know, a dish water level type candidate.

Ward Baker: Bad campaign. In debt, nine million dollars. He was in and out, I think, in four months or five months.

Crom Carmichael: I think somebody asked me the question about do I think he was a good governor. I’m not saying that being a good governor means that you have a leg up to become president. Although it is interesting that so many of our presidents were formerly governors.

My question is, after New Hampshire, let’s assume just for the purpose of discussion that Nikki Haley and Donald Trump are within two points of each other in New Hampshire. What’s the next contest?

Ward Baker: South Carolina.

Crom Carmichael: Who wins that one?

Ward Baker: Trump. Easily.

Latest numbers from yesterday morning, 49 Trump, Haley 20, to DeSantis 11.

Crom Carmichael: Okay. Now, if Haley does above expectations in New Hampshire and then Trump beats her badly in her home state, it’s over.

Ward Baker: That’s what their team has even said. We’re going to go through South Carolina and see what happens. And then we’re going to make a decision.

 

Part Three – Understanding the Key Swing States: Pennsylvania, Nevada, and their role in winning the majority in the House and Senate

Michael Patrick Leahy: And welcome back to the Tennessee star report, 12 05 PM. We are broadcasting live from our studios in downtown Nashville in studio, the original all star panelist, Crom Carmichael, and our very good friend, Ward Baker, political consultant extraordinaire

Ward, you were breaking down what you think the Senate will look like after the November 2024 election. We’re right now, 51 – 49 in our running tally that I have just put together based upon your comments. Republicans pick up West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, which would put us at 52 – 48 GOP control.

Now, what do you have to say about Pennsylvania?

Ward Baker: Pennsylvania. Done a lot of work there. Thought Pat Toomey ran the greatest Senate campaign in American history. How hard he worked for about four years. It’s tough to get elected there. Let’s walk through the numbers.

You have Pittsburgh and you have Philly.

And you have four Alabamas in between.

And it’s very, very different. Philly, you have five congressional districts like Memphis. And you hope to get eight, nine percent. Pittsburgh, you’re hoping to get 12, 13 percent. You got to run the numbers up in Alabama.

You want to talk about a tough state?

Michael Patrick Leahy: In between, in between is all the rural part – and I know this because I grew up just across the border from Pennsylvania – the rural parts of Pennsylvania are basically colder. A little bit more mountainous, but they’re basically Alabama with a northern accent.

Ward Baker: Some people call it six West Tennessees and it’s very different.

Let’s go through the numbers.

A New York Times latest poll plus four Trump.

Morning Consult Bloomberg plus two – second time Bloomberg’s had Trump up two.

Quinnipiac plus two.

And so Trump’s winning: +2, +2, +2, +4. if you add both Bloomberg polls.

Biden’s approval: when he won in 2020 was a 53. Today Biden’s approval is a 40.

Biden’s approval on election day when he won was a 53.

Today It’s a 40.

Polling has shown Casey with a small lead – but largely being driven by name ID, Democrat Casey, who’s had some tough liberal votes and it’s coming to roost.

I think we should be arrested as a party for allowing someone like we did last cycle – Dr. Oz – to move in from New Jersey.

Michael Patrick Leahy: I mean, he really was a carpetbagger.

Ward Baker: He moved in, filed 28 days later, he ran for office would we would not want anyone moving in from Ohio or Indiana or Kentucky running here. It was the same thing and a lot of people said it was a couple points going, ‘Well, he doesn’t even really live here.’

Michael Patrick Leahy: Well, the other part about that is, you know, there are many really good things about Donald Trump picking candidates to win? Not always so good.

Well, he backed Oz and McCormick. And McCormick lost narrowly narrowly and you know what? I really like about McCormick the way he handled that loss. He just said he basically said, okay, he had the long term perspective. He realized that it would not be good for the party if he contested that election, he conceded and he worked.

Ward Baker: And by the way, who did over 60 events at county parties on his own? Him and his wife, in the general going to speak? Not two, not one just showing up once – he did over 60.

Michael Patrick Leahy: Yeah, and so it was a good, it was an adult performance.

Ward Baker: Held fundraisers, gave money, even gave to a super PAC, he went all in. And so I  appreciate how he did that. It’s going to be tough, but we’re going to make them spend money.

Michael Patrick Leahy: Let’s talk about Nevada real fast.

Ward Baker: So that, I think it’s a tough one.

It’s tough, but we’re going to make Because it’s Pennsylvania. It’s Pennsylvania, but Pat Toomey did it.

Michael Patrick Leahy: Let’s just stay at 52 – 48, but if things go well, and if McCormick gets a break, I think he could win.

Ward Baker: Let’s talk about Nevada. Nevada, Biden’s approval is a 36 in one poll, 38 in another, Crom. 36 in one, 38 in another.

Biden in 2020 was right at 50. It’s now at 38 and 36.

When you start getting down that low, you got problems.

In Nevada, we have Sam Brown running. He’s been endorsed just about by everyone.

Michael Patrick Leahy: The incumbent is Jackie Rosen? Horrible. And Sam Brown has a compelling personal story.

Ward Baker: And by the way, this is who we should have backed last time, rather than the horrible candidate that had in Laxalt, who’s a silver spoon and never done anything in his life.

And that’s who we did, everyone decided to get behind. Senate leadership endorsed Laxalt; said let’s all get behind him, and Laxalt was just a lazy, horrible candidate and we lost.

Crom Carmichael: But doesn’t the Democrat party control Clark County and didn’t they, in the last election, mail ballots out to every, to every registered voter, knowing that there were tens of thousands and maybe even over a hundred thousand ballots that were sent to residences that didn’t match the person.

Ward Baker: But the laws have gotten a little stricter since then. And so not by a lot, but by a little. And I think Sam Brown has a compelling story. He served our country. Okay. I like seeing more veterans run. Obviously he’s a wounded warrior.

Michael Patrick Leahy: He’s severely injured.

Ward Baker: Severe, severely, severely burned from an IED.

Michael Patrick Leahy: Okay. So where do you think that plays out?

Ward Baker: Right now the generic ballot is D+1. On election day it was D+4 and it’s D+1.

Michael Patrick Leahy: Is that a pickup or not?

Ward Baker: I think it’s tough, but they have to spend money there.

Michael Patrick Leahy: So, let me just come back, in our next segment, when we talk about the House, a friend of ours is running in Nevada in a House seat to pick and flip Drew Johnson.

Good man. We’ll get to that after this, in the next segment,

Ward Baker: He’s no Michael Patrick Leahy.

Michael Patrick Leahy: Well, of course, that goes without saying.

Michael Patrick Leahy: What about Arizona?

Ward Baker: Arizona is going to be tough. I think it’s possible.

And then Wisconsin, I think the numbers are very, very good there. And I look, Ron John won twice.

Michael Patrick Leahy: And Ron Johnson is the man. He is a strong, strong America-First guy.

He barely won.

Ward Baker: I was there in ’16 when he ran reelection and it was tough.

Michael Patrick Leahy: He worked very hard. Wisconsin is an odd state in the sense that, you know, they had all the ZuckerBucks money and–

Ward Baker: He overperformed in Milwaukee and underperformed in Green Bay. It’s very, very different how he’s been able to put it together.

Michael Patrick Leahy: So Tammy Baldwin is the current incumbent Democrat there – far-Left.

Who’s the GOP champion going to be?

Ward Baker: Well, there’s going to be Eric Hovde. He’s supposed to get in the next couple weeks. Businessman, is willing to put in a lot of money, and I think that’s who you’re going to see everyone get behind.

Michael Patrick Leahy: So our buddy John Fredericks has Sheriff Clark on often as a guest. I think he’s a good guest. I don’t think he would be a very good candidate. Enough said on that. I agree. Okay. So, but Wisconsin again, I guess you’re in the land of–

Ward Baker: Well, one of these is going to break. I think in this type of environment, we want to have good campaigns and we want to make sure that they’re running fundamental, smart campaigns, putting lead on the target.

And then one of these is, could break and make the Dems, put them in the corner.

Michael Patrick Leahy: So of Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, you think we pick one of those three up?

Ward Baker: Hope so. It’s gonna be tough, but I think we can.

Michael Patrick Leahy: I’ll go to 53 – 47.

Ward Baker: So, hey, if we can get to 53, I’ll be happy.

Michael Patrick Leahy:  What other states do you have here for us?

Ward Baker: No, those are the main ones. I think we’re reaching on the others. I think those

Michael Patrick Leahy: are the main ones. Let me go back to Arizona for a moment. Yep. Which, as you know, we have the leading conservative news publication in the state of Arizona.

Ward Baker: I mean, you’re giving Michael Bloomberg a run for his money.

Michael Patrick Leahy: The Arizona Sun Times. Yes, great traffic there and for our website there and largely because we’re reporting on election integrity issues. We’ve got a couple of really good reporters there on the ground in Phoenix.

Now the bizarre part about the senate race there is you’ve got the incumbent? Kyrsten Sinema elected as a Democrat has declared she’s going to be an Independent.

Then, the guy who’s running for the democratic nomination Ruben Gallego, who is a far Lefty – a Harvard grad who failed.

Unlike me, I called for the resignation of Claudine Gay long before she resigned; he’s been silent on it – and he has all sorts of problems even though he’s a far Lefty.

And then the GOP likely nominee would be Kari Lake.

Ward Baker: I think she’s the only really one in right now.

Michael Patrick Leahy: I don’t believe there’s anyone. There’s a sheriff. There’s one of the sheriffs is already in but he’s probably going to drop out. Night nice guy, but he doesn’t have it.

But this is a very unusual state Kari, of course you know did challenge the gubernatorial election, which she barely lost but didn’t succeed in the courts, and she’s facing a defamation suit put forward by Stephen Richer, the Maricopa County Recorder. I think she’ll end up winning that

But nonetheless the polling there is I think very mixed right now.

Ward Baker: Well, let’s go through the polling.

Lake 33, Galileo 39, Sinema 29.

Next poll has Lake 37, Galileo 41, Sinema 17.

There hasn’t really been any poll that matches. And you look at the last 4 or 5 polls, they’re all very varied. Very different. So there hasn’t been one that matches.

Sinema has $10.8 million on hand. Geico has $5 million on hand.

And then Sinema has a Super PAC with, I think, about $8 or $10 million. A lot of money.

Crom Carmichael: Why did Sinema become an independent?

Ward Baker: She got tired of dealing with, what I understand, the Democrat caucus and she just said, ‘You know, I’ll just do this on my own.’

Michael Patrick Leahy: All right, interesting and unusual decision.

Ward Baker: Hey, I’ll take Kari Lake any day.

Michael Patrick Leahy: When we come back, we want to talk about what happens in the House of Representatives.

Count me as somebody’s very concerned about that.

We’ll be back with more after this in-studio Crom Carmichael, Ward Baker will be back after this. I’m Michael Patrick Leahy.

 

Part Four – The Tennessee Connection to the Nevada 3rd Congressional District: Beacon Center Founder Drew Johnson Runs for Congress

Michael Patrick Leahy: Take the presidency and the Senate because it’s there to win. I think the House is up for grabs, really, because of some factors not necessarily controllable i.e. the redistricting issues that are happening in these states.

So, let’s talk about where we can win.

In Nevada’s third district, which currently has a Democrat, our friend Drew Johnson, who got started here in Tennessee.

Ward Baker: Because so many new people have moved here, and we have all these Yankees that have moved down. You being one of them, Michael.

Michael Patrick Leahy: Let me just say that although you are a native Tennessean.

Ward Baker: Born and raised. Family since 1803. John Rose calls me an immigrant, by the way, because his family got here in 1796.

Michael Patrick Leahy: So we moved here in 1991 – 30 plus years, I think I can call myself a Tennessean and after being here 30 years or so, right?

But Drew Johnson–

Ward Baker: Helped fight the income tax. Was very, very involved.

Michael Patrick Leahy: Not only that, but he started the Beacon Center.

Ward Baker: The Beacon Center’s done a great job and they continue to do a great job and have great leadership there.

Michael Patrick Leahy: He was for a period of time, the Op-ed. Editor for the Chattanooga newspaper, The Times Free Press.

He was the conservative columnist, and he was so conservative they said, ‘Hit the road, buddy.’

But he’s out in Las Vegas. He ran for the county commission. He spent like $3 million bucks. His opponent spent $5 million. He lost by like 20 votes.

And it was, you know, my guess is the Democrats probably cheated, right?

So now that just happened. And now I literally bumped into him at the airport in Washington, DC last month after he’d come and probably was visiting with you and others.

Ward Baker: He’s a good man. We’ve talked a couple of times and we’re going to help him out and do a fundraiser for him. And I’m going to do everything I can.

Michael Patrick Leahy: I think he’s going to win that seat.

Ward Baker: That would be a great story. Everyone needs to send him money.

Michael Patrick Leahy:  That would be a flip, which we need

Ward Baker: Crom can finance the campaign..

Crom Carmichael: I don’t understand how we could pick up so many seats in 2010, and if Trump does well, and you expect him to do well and win the presidency – how do you go from, from having the House to losing the House when you win the Presidency?

Ward Baker: When you run U.S. Senate seats and you look at your board and you’re running a committee, Senate races choose you, right? They choose you. You have to play.

You choose House races. You can pick and choose. You can say, ‘I got this much money. I’m going to pick Crom over Michael,’ right?

Redistricting changes the numbers redistricting changes the map and the percentage you may be able to target Ohio, but you can’t target Ohio 03 because you’re gonna lose it’s changed by five points and and where redistricting is.

So the maps are different and so that’s what makes the difference

Crom Carmichael: I still don’t understand how if you have a president who wins the presidency.

Ward Baker: Let’s take it very, very low level to Steve Dickerson’s district here. Yeah, the State Senate, Steve Dickerson in 2016, a Republican. I think Trump got 43, 44.

He got 51. He overperformed the top of the ballot. And that is very unusual. Ran a great campaign. I think they knocked 90,000 doors, 91,000 doors.

Four years later, his district was, Trump I think got 41, he got 49. Sometimes you can only get so much. Trump carried the state by huge margins, more than before.

But he lost, but he was drawn differently, and it’s the same way with Congress.

Michael Patrick Leahy: Yeah, I think that’s it. And look, this is where the Democrats are very good and effective in terms of challenging district lines. I mean, they’ve got this whole team, the Mark Elias crowd.

Wen we come back, we’ve got to talk about this – and I’m amazed that we’ve made it this far without talking about it – a huge court victory for the good guys in Georgia.

Oh, yeah, that’s sure Oh, we’re gonna have to talk about that when we get back.

You know, Catherine Engelbrecht with True the Vote.

They put her in prison for a week by the way for this very kind of stuff think – for ten days.

And a major court victory for True the Vote and election integrity yesterday, a great way to start 2024 in a federal court in Georgia. We’ll talk about that and more when we get back.

This is The Tennessee Star Report. He’s Crom Carmichael and Ward Baker here in-studio having a great time.

Back after this.

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Photo “Ward Baker” by Baker Group Strategies.