Former President Donald Trump now leads President Joe Biden by 4 percentage points in Pennsylvania, according to a Monday poll showing Republican U.S. Senate nominee Dave McCormick is “within striking distance” of Senator Bob Casey (D-PA).
Following last week’s presidential debate, the Cygnal poll found 48.3 percent of Pennsylvanians support Trump compared to 44 percent who support Biden. The former president’s polling lead against Biden is beyond the 3.45 percent margin of error reported by the pollsters.
Other recent polls tracked by Real Clear Polling showed Trump ahead by only 2 percent in Pennsylvania. With the release of the Cygnal poll, the former president now enjoys a 3 percent spread in the commonwealth.
Cygnal surveyed 800 likely general election voters on June 27 and June 28. The pollsters confirmed they conducted their interviews after the debate between Biden and Trump, during which the 81-year-old president’s poor performance prompted some Democrats to question whether the party should find another nominee.
While the pollsters found Casey with a 3.7 percent lead, with the support of 45.8 percent of likely Pennsylvania voters compared to the 42.1 percent who support McCormick, they reported the circumstances are right for McCormick to unseat the three-term Democrat.
The pollsters explained, “despite nearly 20 years in elected office and his family’s political legacy in the state, Casey is facing a difficult path to reelection,” with 12 percent of respondents stating they were undecided on the race.
Despite Casey’s narrow lead over McCormick, just 39 percent of those polled said Casey “deserves to be re-elected,” while 48.6 percent told pollsters it’s “[t]ime for someone new.”
More than half of those polled also identified Casey as “partisan,” with just 16.7 percent reporting they consider the Democrat to be independent.
McCormick previously noted Casey voted almost exclusively with Biden. After the presidential debate, his campaign released an advertisement highlighting statements by Casey and Biden about their friendship.
The Republican has also called for White House officials to consider their “responsibility” to consider removing Biden from office with the 25th Amendment.
Pollsters at Cygnal found that 21.8 percent of respondents reported a “generally negative” takeaway about Biden after watching the debate. Another 18.1 percent of those who watched the debate told pollsters both candidates were bad. Just 12.9 percent reported generally negative comments about Trump.
An additional 7.5 percent of respondents commented on Biden’s mental abilities, while 7.3 percent called the 81-year-old president too old for the job.
Both Casey and Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) have defended Biden, with Fetterman noting, “There was that same kind of a freakout after my debate, and in fact, I might even say that I had a more difficult evening than the president did, and here I am right now having this conversation.”
Casey similarly acknowledged to reporters on Monday that Biden “had a bad night,” but about Biden’s competence, declared, “I’ve been at this a while, and I know his work.”
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Tom Pappert is the lead reporter for The Tennessee Star, and also reports for The Pennsylvania Daily Star and The Arizona Sun Times. Follow Tom on X/Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “President Joe Biden” by President Joe Biden. Photo “Dave McCormick” by Dave McCormick.
