Arizona is projected to be the recipient of nearly $1 billion in political advertising during the 2024 cycle, meaning the Grand Canyon State will receive the highest share of spending of any battleground state, and the second highest of any state in the union, should the projections be correct.
The state is expected to see about $821 million in advertising over the 2024 political cycle, according to a new report published by AdImpact. Arizona will receive almost $100 million more than the second highest battleground state, Pennsylvania, which is estimated to receive $725 million.
Additionally, Michigan is expected to receive $659 million, Nevada $576 million, North Carolina $435 million, Georgia $383 million, and Wisconsin $362 million.
Neighboring Democratic stronghold California is projected to hold the honor of the most political advertising spent in one state for 2024. A combination of ballot initiatives, competitive House races, an expensive advertising market, and the retirement of Senator Diane Feinstein (D-CA) are blamed for the projected $1.19 billion in political spending the state is expected to receive.
Though the presidential race between President Joe Biden and the eventual Republican nominee promises to account for a significant part of Arizona’s political advertising, the experts suggest efforts to capture the U.S. Senate seat held by Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) will balloon spending to unprecedented levels.
The advertising analysts determined, “Arizona looks likely to be the most expensive Senate race of the cycle” due to the state’s reputation for “razor-thin margins” and containing “one of the most expensive markets in the country” with “competitive primaries on both sides of the aisle.”
Sinema changed her party affiliation to independent in 2022, but continues to caucus with Democrats in the U.S. Senate and accept Democratic committee assignments. Though she previously indicated she would seek reelection as an independent, she has not officially announced a campaign.
Recent polling showed her losing significantly, with her presence on the ballot boosting the Democratic candidate. Republican voters, the pollsters found, are more likely to deviate from the Republican candidate and vote for Sinema than their Democratic counterparts.
Democratic momentum appears to be gathering behind Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03), whose campaign had already raised $7 million to capture Sinema’s seat by July.
On the Republican side of the aisle, Sheriff Mark Lamb appears to be the most popular declared candidate. However, both former senate candidate Blake Masters and former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake have indicated they may run for the seat, and one poll from last month suggested Republican voters overwhelmingly prefer Lake over Lamb for the job.
Should Lamb, Masters, and Lake enter the race simultaneously, Arizona Republicans would be required to choose between three candidates who are considered allies of former President Donald Trump. Lake and Masters were both endorsed by Trump during their 2022 races, and Lamb has championed Trump’s concerns about the 2020 elections.
Also considering a run for Sinema’s seat are former gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson, who lost her race to Lake in 2022, and businessman Jim Lamon, who lost his race to Masters in 2022.
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Tom Pappert is the lead reporter for The Georgia Star News and a reporter for the Arizona Sun Times. Follow Tom on Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Sen Kyrsten Sinema” by Kyrsten Sinema and “Watching TV” is by Rawpixel.
