The Arizona race for U.S. Senate between Kari Lake and Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03) is statistically tied, according to dueling polls that each show the Republican or Democrat leading by less than 1 percent in the race to fill the seat being vacated by Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ).
First, a survey released by Data Orbital on Tuesday found Lake with the support of 45.2 percent of likely voters, leading Gallego by 0.7 percent, with the Democrat at 44.5 percent. The pollsters found an additional 5.8 percent were undecided, while 1.6 percent plan to vote for Green Party candidate Eduardo Quintana.
Data Orbital reported surveying 550 Arizonans and reported a margin of error of 4.26 percent for their findings, but a poll published Wednesday suggested a similarly close race between Lake and Gallego, while instead showing the Democrat narrowly leading.
That survey, published by Atlas Polling, showed Gallego leading with 48.4 percent of the vote, with Lake trailing by half a percentage point at 47.9 percent. An additional 1.2 percent planned to vote for another candidate, 1.7 percent were undecided, and 0.8 percent told pollsters they do not plan to vote for any Senate candidate.
Atlas polled a larger sample, with 1,458 respondents, and reported a margin of error of 3 percent, leaving the race between Lake and Gallego in a dead heat.
The pollster additionally provided its survey within the context of its two previous polls of Arizona voters, which showed Gallego leading by 4.1 percent in September, then 3.5 percent on October 17, before the race became statistically tied with its October 29 release.
Former President Donald Trump fared better than Lake in both polls, with the Data Orbital survey showing Republican presidential nominee with a commanding, 7.8-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, and the Atlas survey showing Trump ahead of the Democrat by 4.2 percent in the Grand Canyon State.
Both polls suggest a significant narrowing in the polls in the Senate race during the final days before Election Day, as the RealClearPolling aggregate of surveys continues to show Gallego leading Lake by 4 percent.
Supporters of Lake have celebrated the news, with former Trump administration Acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell highlighting an interaction between Lake and a reporter over the tightening race in a post to the social media platform X.
Lake responded by calling the race a “dead heat” with her own post to X, where she wrote, “We will win if you show up.”
The Republican added, “Nobody stays at home. Nobody sits on the sidelines. VOTE, and then find ten other people and tell them to do the same.”
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Tom Pappert is the lead reporter for The Tennessee Star, and also reports for The Pennsylvania Daily Star and The Arizona Sun Times. Follow Tom on X/Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Ruben Gallego” by Ruben Gallego and “Kari Lake” is by Kari Lake.
