Former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is set to announce her campaign for Arizona Senate on Tuesday, having previously filed paperwork to run in early October. Polling released this week suggests she will enter the race as the front runner against both Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03) and incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ).
In a three-way race, pollsters at Republican-leaning National Research Inc. reported on Tuesday that 37 percent of Arizonans will back Lake. Gallego polled at 33 percent of support, while Sinema was supported by just 19 percent of respondents. Pollsters say 10 percent remained undecided.
The poll revealed Lake will begin her campaign with the support of 70 percent of Republicans, along with 32 percent of independent voters and 2 percent of Democrats. However, the polling suggests Sinema would capture the support of 16 percent of Republicans and 33 percent of independent voters, should she enter the race, but the former Democrat would receive just 12 percent of support among Democratic voters.
Should Sinema decide against running for reelection, pollsters forecast a tight race, with Lake and Gallego tied at 44 percent of support. Without Sinema on the ballot, pollsters said the share of undecided respondents increased to 12 percent.
The survey was conducted between October 7-9, which is after Lake filed to run for office but before her announcement. The pollsters reported a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent and a confidence rating of 95 percent.
A separate poll, which The Washington Examiner noted was commissioned by Gallego’s campaign from the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, showed Gallego ahead of Lake by five percentage points in a three-way race, with Sinema in a similarly distant third place. The PPP poll too, suggested the race will tighten without Sinema, though it indicated Gallego would defeat Lake in a two-way contest.
Still, the pollsters reported 58 percent of respondents said Sinema should not run for reelection, compared to just 23 percent who said she should seek another term.
Though both polls show Sinema in a distant third place, they seem to reflect the strategy outlined in a campaign “path to victory” document reviewed by members of the media last month. The document revealed Sinema purportedly plans to court Arizona’s independent and Republican voters, while surrendering the majority of the state’s Democratic electorate to Gallego, in a bid to retain her seat. Sinema left the Democratic Party last year, but continues to caucus with Democrats and accept Democratic committee assignments.
Neither poll released this week offered insight about Arizonans’ preferred primary candidates, but polling released in August showed Lake had the support of 42 percent of Arizona Republicans, giving the former news anchor a 31-point lead over Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb.
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Tom Pappert is a reporter for The Arizona Sun Times and The Star News Network. Follow Tom on Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Kari Lake” by Gage Skidmore. CC BY-SA 2.0.
