A new survey reportedly conducted last month was revealed Monday, and suggests Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) is polling in third place against Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03) and former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, despite apparently pulling a significant number of Republican voters.
The poll was commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and obtained by Puck News. The poll allegedly shows Gallego in first place with the support of 41 percent of Arizona voters and Lake in second place with 37 percent. Sinema finished in a distant third place, with the support of just 17 percent of Arizonans.
A spokesman for the NRSC reportedly told reporter Andrew Desiderio “the poll had a margin of error” of 4.4 percent, which means “Gallego and Lake would be in a statistical tie.”
MORE — Sen. Lindsey Graham stood up during the meeting and said Lake is going to be the GOP nominee in Arizona, so Republicans need to help her campaign
The internal NRSC poll was conducted on Oct. 25
A spokesperson for Sinema declined to comment
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— Andrew Desiderio (@AndrewDesiderio) October 31, 2023
Sinema has not officially determined whether she will seek re-election, but a September donor memo revealed she plans to court Arizona’s Republican and independent voters should she decide to run. Sinema won re-election as a Democrat in 2018, and though she became an independent in 2022, she continues to caucus with Democrats and accept Democratic committee assignments.
The memo indicates Sinema expects a significant number of Arizona Republicans to reject Lake and for a similar number of Arizona independents to reject both Lake and Gallego in order to achieve re-election. It also indicates Sinema plans to cede the majority of Arizona’s Democratic voters to Gallego in the process.
Though the poll suggests Sinema may have inroads with some Republicans and independents, it remains unclear whether she could close her current 24-point gap by courting Republican and independent voters.
Desiderio added that Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) was present during a lunch meeting where the NRSC poll was discussed and reported that Graham urged his Senate colleagues to support Lake’s campaign, suggesting her primary win is inevitable.
Lake secured the endorsement of Senator John Barrasso (R-WY), who is the Senate Republican Conference Chair, shortly after announcing her campaign. Around the same time, it was reported that the NRSC is considering backing her candidacy, as it considers Lake unbeatable in a Republican primary contest.
Thus far, all three polls of Arizona voters have shown Sinema in a distant, third-place finish. Two polls showed Gallego narrowly beating Lake, while the third indicated Lake will narrowly beat Gallego.
Though Sinema reportedly plans to stress her new status as an independent should she launch a campaign, Lake and her allies appear eager to paint Sinema as a Democratic ally.
Lake’s official account on X, formerly Twitter, recently shared resurfaced audio of Sinema calling herself the “most liberal legislator in the State of Arizona” during a 2006 radio show. She also called on Sinema to disavow the anti-Israel Council on American-Islamic Relations and to return nearly $6,000 in donations she received from donors affiliated with the group.
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Tom Pappert is the lead reporter for The Georgia Star News, and also reports for The Tennessee Star and the Arizona Sun Times. Follow Tom on X/Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Kyrsten Sinema” by Kyrsten Sinema. Photo “Kari Lake” by Kari Lake.
