The prognostications within the Vanderbilt University Poll released by its Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions missed the actual intentions of Tennessee voters by up to 20 percent.
Published in May, the Vanderbilt poll failed to capture the size of the lead achieved by Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) in her race against State Representative Gloria Johnson (D-Knoxville), with the pollsters ultimately off by 20 percent.
While Blackburn was declared the winner by a 31-point margin, with 64.3 percent of the vote compared to 33.7 that went to Johnson, the Vanderbilt pollsters predicted Blackburn would win by only 11 percent.
Despite the inaccuracy of the May data, The Tennessee Lookout reported last month that Vanderbilt political science professor John Greer told the outlet Blackburn should expect “about a 10-point edge on Johnson,” citing her 11-point victory when she was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2018.
The pollsters were similarly off in their analysis of the race between President-elect Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, who was then the Democratic nominee. The pollsters predicted 47 percent of Tennessee voters would cast their ballot for Trump, while 29 percent would vote to reelect Biden, suggesting Trump would receive an 18-point victory.
Biden ultimately ended his campaign after a devastating debate performance against Trump, paving the way for Vice President Kamala Harris to become the Democratic presidential nominee.
Trump beat Harris on Tuesday after 64.4 percent of Tennessee voters cast ballots in his favor, and only 34.5 percent voted for Harris. Trump won by about 30 percent, and the Vanderbilt pollsters were off by about 12 points.
Other pollsters fared better at predicting Tennessee Republicans’ margins of victory, including the Beacon Center of Tennessee, which released a poll two months after the Vanderbilt survey that found Blackburn leading Johnson by 20 percent. When the right-of-center think tank released more data in October, the pollsters projected Blackburn with a 23-point lead over Johnson.
In its October release, the Beacon Center pollsters similarly predicted Trump would win a 21-point victory in Tennessee.
While Trump outperformed his 2020 results across the United States in a surprise to many pollsters, having a Republican mandate through winning the popular vote, Vanderbilt was similarly wrong when Trump last secured a national victory in 2016.
The pollster produced results suggesting Trump was polling just 11 percent ahead of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in its October 2016 survey, while Trump actually beat Clinton by roughly 26 percent, leaving Vanderbilt’s pollsters off their mark by 15 percent.
On Wednesday, just after most Tennessee Republicans won their races with comfortable margins, Republican leadership in the General Assembly and Governor Bill Lee unveiled a universal school choice plan, The Education Freedom Act of 2025, as a top priority for the upcoming legislative session.
Republicans will not lose one single seat in the General Assembly after Tuesday’s elections.
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Tom Pappert is the lead reporter for The Tennessee Star, and also reports for The Pennsylvania Daily Star and The Arizona Sun Times. Follow Tom on X/Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Marsha Blackburn” by Marsha Blackburn.
