Proposed Draft Maps for Redistricting in Arizona a Mixed Bag, Slightly Favor Democrats

The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission has been working on the maps updating where Arizona’s congressional districts are drawn to reflect changing demographics, something which takes place once every 10 years. They approved draft maps this week, which makes more congressional districts competitive, but it’s tough to predict how those races could go due to demographics changing in the future — zoning rules can easily tip a district. The legislative districts are also being redrawn, and while they make Republican seats safer, they also create two swing seats that could allow the Democrats to take control of the legislature. 

Under the congressional plan, four of the nine districts would be considered competitive, with two of them genuine toss-ups. The other districts would be three safe Republican seats and two safe Democrat seats. The two highly competitive districts include the newly labeled CD6, which contains much of southern Arizona south of Phoenix. A significant portion of that district is currently represented by Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, who is retiring. Its Democratic advantage will be just 1.9 percent. The other one is the newly labeled CD1, which includes Scottsdale and much of Phoenix. It is currently represented by Republican David Schweikert and Democrat Greg Stanton. Its Democratic advantage will be just 1.6 percent. 

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