The Republicans are hoping to unseat Congressional Democrat Greg Stanton in District 4, who has won three consecutive terms. This district covers all of Tempe, and parts of Mesa, Phoenix, Scottsdale and Chandler.
The Cook Political Report lists Stanton’s seat as a solid Democrat despite CD4 having a “D+2” rating. This means on average, a Democratic candidate in this district would perform 2 percentage points better than the national average for Democratic candidates. Pundits say, this slight edge should be beatable with the right candidate. This district is labeled “solid Democrat” instead of “lean Democrat” due to Stanton’s incumbent status and significant war chest of $1,517,082.
Republican consultants believe the key to defeating Stanton lies in the significant number of independent voters, which is a huge 34% in all registered voters.
Republicans are entering 2024 with a registration advantage and can highlight Stanton’s consistent alignment with President Biden by showcasing his voting record. The lawmaker votes with Biden almost 100% of the time.
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