Pollsters’ Final Shifts Reflect Increased Odds of Virginia Republican Gubernatorial Win

In final ratings changes before the election, multiple analysts shifted their gubernatorial race ratings in favor of Republicans, partly due to a preference from some organizations to avoid ending on a toss-up rating. The Crystal Ball shifted from Lean Democratic to Lean Republican. Inside Elections shifted from Lean Democratic to toss-up. CNalysis switched from toss-up to Tilt Republican. That’s significant since up until now, most analysts have either rated the race a tie or with Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe in the lead.

“This Virginia gubernatorial race is one of the most vexing races we can remember,” The Crystal Ball said. “Terry McAuliffe (D) retains the advantage of running in a state that is clearly trending Democratic. But Glenn Youngkin (R) has many significant advantages of his own, which may outweigh Virginia’s Democratic lean.”

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Polls: Virginia Gubernatorial Race Nearly Tied

New polls in Virginia’s elections continue to show a tight race. A poll of likely voters from Emerson College/Nexstar Media reports a tie, 48.1 percent for GOP gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin, and 47.9 percent for Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe. A poll of likely voters from USA Today/ Suffolk University found a near tie, with 45.60 percent for McAuliffe and 45.20 percent support for Youngkin. A poll of likely voters from Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) found 41 percent support for McAuliffe, with 38 percent support for Youngkin.

Based on that, Real Clear Politics reports McAuliffe’s lead at an average 1.5 points.

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Another Election Analysis Firm Shifts Rating to Show a More Competitive Virginia Gubernatorial Race

Inside Elections updated their Virginia gubernatorial race rating Wednesday, shifting from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic.

“Former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe has had a consistent advantage over Republican Glenn Youngkin in the commonwealth, but some Democratic strategists are concerned about President Joe Biden’s drag on the race and about the lack of urgency on the Democratic side,” Inside Elections’ Nathan Gonzales wrote. “The public polling points to a very competitive race. McAuliffe is ahead of Youngkin by three points in both the FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics polling averages, neither of which have changed much in the last six weeks.”

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