Commentary: The State of Political Polling in America

Two years ago, 14 public opinion polls queried Maine voters about their preference in the campaign between incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Sara Gideon. Every one of those surveys had Gideon ahead, by margins ranging from 1 percentage point (Bangor Daily News) to 12 points (Quinnipiac). When the election returns rolled in, however, none of them were close. Collins prevailed handily, beating Gideon by 8.6%.

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Pollster Nate Silver Says Calls That Biden Won Arizona ‘Should be Retracted’

Consider this:

With 89% of the vote tabulated, no news agency has yet called a winner in Pennsylvania, where President Trump leads Joe Biden by 164,418 votes, according to Politico.

In Arizona, with 88% of the vote counted Biden is leading by 68,390 — but Fox News and the Associated Press have already called that race.

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