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Pollster Nate Silver says calls that Biden won Arizona 'should be retracted'

Arizona "still counting votes, and Trump is cutting into Biden's lead there," said data journalist Nate Silver.

Published: November 5, 2020 9:42am

Updated: November 6, 2020 8:01am

Consider this:

With 89% of the vote tabulated, no news agency has yet called a winner in Pennsylvania, where President Trump leads Joe Biden by 164,418 votes, according to Politico.

In Arizona, with 88% of the vote counted Biden is leading by 68,390 — but Fox News and the Associated Press have already called that race.

Data journalist Nate Silver, founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight, which focuses on analysis of polls, says that was a mistake.

"I don't know, I guess I'd say that Biden will win Arizona if you forced me to pick, but I sure as heck don't think the state should have been called by anyone, and I think the calls that were previously made should be retracted now," he wrote in an election update Wednesday night.

Arizona, Silver said, "is still counting votes, and Trump is cutting into Biden's lead there."

On election night, Fox News was the first to call the state for Biden. Team Trump blasted the call, with top campaign adviser Jason Miller demanding a retraction. President Trump even reportedly called Rupert Murdoch, the owner of Fox News, and gave him an earful.

Eventually, Fox called on Arnon Mishkin, director of the network's decision desk, to explain the call on the air.

"We made it after basically a half-hour of debating is it time yet because it's been clear for a while that the former vice president is in the lead in Arizona and was most likely to win the state," he said. "It has been in the category that we call 'knowable, but not callable' for about an hour. We finally called it right now. Yes, there are some outstanding votes in Arizona. Most of them are coming from Maricopa [County], where Biden is currently in a very strong position."

A few hours later, in the early morning hours of Wednesday, the Associated Press called Arizona for Biden, giving the state to a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time since Bill Clinton won it in 1996.

"Other media outlets like CNN, NBC News, and CBS haven't called Arizona for either candidate," the Washington Examiner reported. "Arizona and its 11 Electoral College votes are the only difference between the two factions of media outlets, meaning [those who haven't called Arizona] have Biden at 253 electoral votes and Trump still at 213. Trump has a much easier path to 270 Electoral College votes if he's able to pull off a victory in Arizona."

While Trump's campaign has filed lawsuits in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan and vows to request a recount in Wisconsin, it has so far taken no action in Arizona.  

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