Tag: polling

Election Tilts Toward Trump as Suspicions Grow That Some Polls May Be Masking True Size of His Lead

Just the News
Donald Trump

A string of polls from legacy outfits has pointed to a shift toward former President Donald Trump in most of the major battleground states while Vice President Harris maintains a national lead, but some analysts see a critical disconnect between state and national polling that could suggest the Republican is on even stronger footing.

Harris currently leads Trump by 2.0% in the RealClearPolitics polling average, with 49.1% support to his 47.1%. That figure includes a Rasmussen Reports survey showing Trump with a two-point lead, a Reuters/Ipsos survey showing Harris up two, a Morning Consult poll with Harris up five, a Yahoo News poll with the race tied, and a number of other surveys. A New York Times/Siena College survey showed Harris up three points.

Read the full story

Latest Polling: Trump, Harris Statistically Tied

The Center Square
Kamala Harris, Donald Trump

After failing to hold news conferences or give live interviews, and flipping on a range of issues, Vice President Kamala Harris is now slightly trailing former President Donald Trump in several key swing states two months before the election. New polls show they are statistically tied nationally.

“Harris is in fact on the decline in polls over the past couple of weeks in most of the key swing states,” pollster Nate Silver said. Silver was the founder and editor in chief of the New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight and was an ABC News special correspondent until last year. He now publishes election data in the Silver Bulletin.

Read the full story

Commentary: Harris’ Polling Bump Shows Incumbency Still Tough to Overcome, Even amid Economic Concerns

The Daily Torch
Kamala Harris

Vice President Kamala Harris is enjoying a bump in national polls against former President Donald Trump following President Joe Biden stepping aside from the 2024 presidential race as Democrats are re-consolidating around Harris with less than three months to go until Election Day on Nov. 5, with the latest national polling average compiled by RealClearPolling.com showing Harris with a slight edge, 47.6 percent to 47.1 percent.

Read the full story

New American Greatness Poll: Battlegrounds Are a Dead Heat

Admin
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in front of The White House (composite image)

Brand new polling across the battleground states shows that Biden’s exit has tightened the presidential race, with Kamala Harris at a narrow 47-46 percent advantage in a head-to-head matchup, with 7 percent undecided. Harris is also +1 percent in a multi-candidate ballot test across the battlegrounds.

The American Greatness poll was conducted by North Star Opinion Research and interviewed 1400 likely voters, 200 per state in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina.

Read the full story

Michigan Secretary of State Announces ‘Panic Button’ for Poll Workers Ahead of Election

Just the News
Election Day

Michigan Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson this week announced that the state would implement a “panic button” system for the November election permitting election officials to quickly alert law enforcement in the event of a threat.

“I don’t believe this is announced yet, but we will be rolling out a panic button type of communication for every election worker if clerks work with us, to implement it in their particular voting location to be able to text if something occurs,” Benson said Monday.

Read the full story

Trump Expands Push in Blue States as Virginia Appears Competitive

Just the News
Donald Trump in Philadelphia

Former President Donald Trump appears poised to invest heavily in Virginia in the 2024 election as new polling data suggests the Old Dominion could be competitive for Republicans for the first time in 20 years.

The state has not backed a Republican for president since George W. Bush in 2004 and trended increasingly Democratic over the years until GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s upset win in 2021 reignited Republican hopes in the commonwealth. The GOP struggled, however, in the 2023 legislative elections, with many analysts pinning the blame on the Dobbs v. Jackson decision, which forced Republicans to play defense on the issue of abortion during that cycle. The party lost control of the House of Delegates and failed to seize control of the state Senate in those elections.

Read the full story

Vanderbilt Poll: Tennessee’s ‘MAGA Republicans’ More Pro-Life than State’s Other Republicans

Peter D'Abrosca
Trump Supporters

A Vanderbilt University poll that measured Tennesseans’ sentiments on abortion among other political issues found that Republicans who identify more closely with former President Donald Trump are more pro-life than Republicans who do not. 

Vanderbilt Poll Co-Director Josh Clinton explained the distinction between what the pollsters term “MAGA Republicans” and other Republicans. 

Read the full story

Haley Won’t Drop Out If She Loses South Carolina, Plans to Spend Half a Million in Michigan

Peter D'Abrosca
Nikki Haley

The lone remaining Republican challenger to former President Donald J. Trump in the 2024 presidential primary says she will not drop out of the race even if she loses the Saturday primary in her home state of South Carolina. 

“Some of you — perhaps a few of you in the media — came here today to see if I’m dropping out of the race. Well, I’m not. Far from it, and I’m here to tell you why,” Nimrata “Nikki” Haley said at a campaign stop in Greenville. “I’m running for President because we have a country to save. Since the star of my campaign, I’ve been focused on the real issues our country faces. The ones that determine whether America with thrive or spiral out.”

Read the full story

Top-Ranked Political Advisor Ward Baker Delivers Four-Part Master Class on 2024 Election Cycle

Tennessee Star Staff
Ward Baker

Political consultant Ward Baker joined Wednesday’s episode of The Tennessee Star Report with Michael Patrick Leahy in-studio to discuss his insights to the state of the 2024 election cycle across the 50 states.

With the Iowa caucuses less than two weeks away and Super Tuesday a scant nine weeks after that on March 5, Baker takes listeners inside the campaigns as he shares the polling, players and places that matter most in 2024.

Read the full story

GOP Presidential Candidates Prepare for Critical Second Debate Without Trump

M.D. Kittle

If Wednesday’s second GOP presidential primary debate proves to be anything like the first, we’re in for a night of political punches and maybe a rhetorical gang fight or two as the candidates look to score points in another Trump-less bout.

With former President Donald Trump skipping the debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, CA, top tier candidates like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Ohio entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley will try to tell those watching why they’re a better option than the race’s far and away frontrunner — and the rest of the crowded field of Republican candidates.

Read the full story

GOP Presidential Hopeful Doug Burgum Campaigns in New Hampshire, Hobbling on in Long-Shot Bid for the White House

M.D. Kittle

Republican presidential hopeful Doug Burgum is limping his way through New Hampshire this week after suffering a leg injury before last week’s first GOP presidential primary debate. It would seem the North Dakota governor’s campaign for the White House is hobbled, too, after he failed to gain much traction last week in Milwaukee. Burgum made campaign stops in Derry and Bedford on Tuesday afternoon. He’s expected to be at Los Primos Mexican Restaurant in Merrimack for a 1 p.m. meet and greet on Wednesday, followed by a stop at Novel Iron Works at 3:30 p.m. in Greenland. The long-shot candidate shouldered on, as he attempts to recover from a ruptured Achilles tendon suffered last Tuesday in a pick-up basketball game in Milwaukee — a day before the first Republican presidential primary debate. He took the debate stage in an ankle boot, a necessary accouterment Burgum continues to wear to his Granite State campaign stops. The governor said he hasn’t missed a campaign event, and he doesn’t intend to. “I came from this town of 300 people [his hometown in North Dakota] and everyone was wishing me well, you know, ‘Go to Milwaukee, break a leg. I took it a little…

Read the full story

Florida Poll Has Trump and DeSantis Tied, but Questions Remain About Polling Data

M.D. Kittle

A new poll shows Florida Governor Ron DeSantis statistically tied with former President Donald Trump in the Sunshine State’s presidential primary race, a reversal of fortune for DeSantis from a few months ago. 

But Fort Meyers, Florida-based pollster Victory Insights has provided no topline or key demographic background data on the poll, raising more questions about surveys used to power a narrative that DeSantis is more electable than Trump.

Read the full story

Trump and DeSantis Heading Back to Iowa for Another Clash of Campaigns

M.D. Kittle

The two titans in the race for the Republican Party presidential nomination will be back in Iowa next week, setting up a clash of campaigns that didn’t quite come to pass earlier this month. 

After announcing his bid for the White House on Twitter this week, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis plans to make his first official campaign stops in the kickoff caucus state, and former President Donald Trump will follow on his top rival’s heels with a Fox News town hall even in Des Moines. 

Read the full story

Commentary: Talking Heads Push One Predictor to Key Elections but Ignore the Raw Numbers Behind Them – and That Changes Everything

Admin

There has been a lot of talk during this election cycle about “voter enthusiasm;” which side has it, what are its causes, and what might it all mean for the final result. Much of it is propaganda that should be ignored, but there are some numbers and data that can help illuminate the terrain. All that attention is appropriate, given that each and every election depends entirely on who shows up to vote.

Let’s start with the propaganda.

Read the full story

Crom’s Crommentary: Chuck Todd and the Breathless Left’s Fearmongering Outcry – ‘Threat to Our Democracy’

Julie Carr

Live from Music Row, Wednesday morning on The Tennessee Star Report with Michael Patrick Leahy – broadcast on Nashville’s Talk Radio 98.3 and 1510 WLAC weekdays from 5:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m. – host Leahy welcomed the original all-star panelist Crom Carmichael to the studio for another edition of Crom’s Crommentary. CROM CARMICHAEL: Michael, the new phrase in the media – and we’re going to hear it through the election – is a four-word phrase that we’re going to hear (affects dramatic, fearful tone): “threat to our democracy.” “Threat to our democracy.” That’s what you’re going to hear. Chuck Todd was (emulates fearmongering tone) breathless, absolutely breathless; “the new poll showed that for the first time a threat to our democracy ranked as the number one issue.” Chuck Todd doesn’t mention is that it’s the first time that that was polled. Think about that for a second. He breathlessly tells you that the threat to our democracy is now the number one concern of voters, and it’s the first time that’s ever been that way. But they’ve never had the threat to our democracy on any previous poll. So that’s a completely air-headed thing to say. But then it’s Chuck Todd, and he’s paid millions…

Read the full story

Tyler Kistner Within Striking Distance of Ousting Incumbent Democrat Rep. Angie Craig in MN-2: Poll

Admin

Voters in Minnesota’s Second Congressional District favor Republicans to Democrats by a 46-44% margin, according to internal polling obtained by Alpha News.

This is good news for Republican Tyler Kistner and bad news for incumbent Democrat Rep. Angie Craig.

Kistner is a former Marine Raider turned congressional hopeful. He nearly won in 2020, losing by just over 2%. This time around, a top GOP polling firm suggests the race will be even harder for Craig amid a wave of anti-Democrat sentiment as Americans recoil against President Joe Biden’s unpopular administration (40% approval).

Read the full story

Joe Biden Underwater with Crucial Constituency in Arizona, Per Polling

The Center Square

President Joe Biden won Arizona in the 2020 presidential election, with one category of voter putting him over the top. 

After being in office for more than 14 months, Biden’s approval in the state has slipped. He has a 40% approval rating, while 55% disapprove of him, according to an Arizona Public Opinion Pulse poll conducted by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI).

Biden’s approval rating among independents, however, was even worse; just 34% of them approved of the job he is doing, while 59% disapproved. Of those, independents strongly disapprove of the most popular category; 41% strongly disapprove of the job Biden is doing in office.

Read the full story

New Polls Show Renacci Leading DeWine, Potential Democratic Opponent in Ohio Gubernatorial Race

Cooper Moran
Jim Renacci

Two surveys, conducted by the Harris Poll and commissioned by the Committee for a Better Ohio, showed Republican Jim Renacci leading incumbent Mike DeWine and potential Democratic opponent John Cranley.

The first poll analyzed each Republican candidate’s odds against John Cranley, who is seeking the Democratic nomination for the position against Nan Whaley. Renacci has the largest lead of any GOP contender, leading the Democrat by 10 points. DeWine’s lead was only 2 points.

Read the full story

Majority of Americans Oppose FBI Investigation of Parents at School Board Meetings, Survey Finds

The Center Square
Merrick Garland

The majority of Americans oppose the Biden administration’s plans to monitor and investigate outspoken parents at school boards meetings, new polling from Convention of States Action reveals.

The poll found 57% of those surveyed do not support the announcement while 19.8% are in favor. The rest are not sure.

“…One can plainly see that those who are aware that Merrick Garland made this announcement oppose him by large majorities, while there’s a group who marked ‘not sure’ because they don’t know about his announcement or don’t know enough about it,” said Mark Meckler, president of Convention of States Action.

Read the full story

Commentary: The Exceptional Catalog of Polling Failure

Admin

The question looms in nearly every U.S. presidential election, even in this year’s race: Could the polls be wrong? If they are, they likely will err in unique fashion. The history of election polling says as much.

That history tells of no greater polling surprise than what happened in 1948, when President Harry Truman defied the polls, the pundits and the press to defeat Thomas E. Dewey, his heavily favored Republican foe.

Read the full story

Commentary: Fear of a 2016 Repeat Inspires Anti-Trump Hysteria

Admin

Over the past four years, American news organizations have not merely shredded their own credibility, but have piled those tattered shreds into a heap, poured gasoline onto the pile, and incinerated it. Anyone who still believes what they see on CNN or read in the New York Times is in the throes of a delusion. As much as we might wish to laugh at the plight of the media, now so obviously lost in the helpless hysteria of Trump Derangement Syndrome, we are not better off as a nation as a result of the catastrophe that has befallen American journalism.

Read the full story

Poll Reveals Growing Distrust in CDC and Media Over COVID Information

Admin

American voters’ trust in the national media and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to provide accurate information about the coronavirus pandemic has plummeted since March, according to a CBS poll published Sunday.

Roughly 54% of voters trust the CDC for reliable information about the virus, a 30 percentage point drop from March, when 86% of voters said the same thing, the CBS poll showed. Fewer voters also trust the national media to provide good information about coronavirus, or COVID, according to the poll, which was conducted between Sept. 2-4 and sampled 2,493 registered voters nationwide.

Read the full story

Exclusive: Pollster Explains His Finding That 10 Percent of Trump Supporters Lie on Surveys

Neil W. McCabe

The lead researcher of the study: “Are Election 2020 Poll Respondents Honest About Their Vote?” told Star News Network there are twice as many “shy voters” among the supporters of President Donald J. Trump than among supporters of former vice president Joseph J. Biden Jr. “The term ‘shy voter’ has been floating around, so we use it because that is the term, which is closest to how people talk about this,” said Leib Litman, CloudResearch’s Co-CEO and chief research officer. In the United Kingdom, conservative voters lying to pollsters is so common they regularly referred to at “shy Tories.” Among the results, Litman and his team found that 11.7 percent of Republicans would not report their true opinions about their preferred presidential candidate to telephone pollsters. This is more than twice the 5.4 percent of Democrats, who responded that they would not give their real preference to telephone pollsters, the study found. Among Independents, 10.5 percent said they were shy about giving their actual preferences to telephone pollsters. After inquiring by party affiliation, the team asked the same questions of Trump and Biden supporters. In this round, 10.1 percent of Trump supporters said they would be untruthful to phone pollsters…

Read the full story