Tag: Recession

YoungkinWatch: Governor Says 2023 Revenues Met Expectations After Forecasting Recession in New Budget

Tom Pappert
Glenn Youngkin

Governor Glenn Youngkin said in a Monday statement that Virginia revenues met his office’s expectation during the first half of the 2023 fiscal year. The governor’s confirmation comes as he seeks to pass his new budget, which forecasts a “mild recession” in the next two years.

Youngkin’s office confirmed in its press release that “general fund revenues for December 2023 remain in line with updated revisions to the official revenue forecast,” and state revenues grew by 0.2 percent and 7.1 percent over the course of the year.

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Commentary: As Consumer and Producer Inflation Cools, Recession Maybe on the Horizon in 2024

Admin

Both annualized consumer and producer inflation decreased in October from 3.7 percent to 3.2 percent and from 2.2 percent to 1.3 percent, respectively, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, amid a drops in oil prices.

On the consumer side, gasoline prices dropped 5 percent in October and are down 5.3 percent over the past twelve months.

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Commentary: Recession May Be Coming After 514,000 More Americans Struggle to Find Employment

Admin

The national unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics jumped from 3.5 percent to 3.8 percent in August as an additional 514,000 Americans said they could not find work in the Bureau’s household survey. Now 6.3 million Americans are said to be unemployed, the highest in more than a year.

But it did not come with a commensurate drop in the number of Americans saying they were working, which also increased by 222,000 to 161.48 million.

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Florida Officials Forecast State’s Economy, Tax Revenues Will Continue Growth

The Center Square

Despite incorrectly predicting a mild recession for the first two quarters this year, Florida officials estimate that the state’s economy and tax revenues will continue to grow. 

The Office of Economic and Demographic Research held a Revenue Estimating Conference last week, with officials saying that the “current economic environment presented significant forecasting challenges.”

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Commentary: Recession Looms as Banks Collapse and the Economy Slows

Admin

The unemployment rate still remains at historic lows of 3.4 percent in April, according to the latest data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, amid other worrying signs for the U.S. economy including a continued collapse of job openings, a string of bank failure and an overall slowing Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

In the survey, as the population increased by 171,000, those not in the labor force increased by 214,000 as labor participation dipped slightly by 43,000. Those who said they had a job increased by 139,000 after a 577,000 increase in March. As a result, the unemployment rate has actually ticked downward for two consecutive months from 3.6 percent in February, to 3.5 percent in March and now 3.4 percent in April.

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Commentary: On Economy, Biden Re-Election Faces Challenges

RealClearWire

As President Biden embarks on his reelection campaign, a majority of American voters are dissatisfied with his stewardship of the U.S. economy. Aware of the general angst among the electorate, Biden is threading the needle by saying he’s running on the strength of his overall record, while vowing to “finish the job” that he started when he stepped into the Oval Office. It’s a daunting task, with an overwhelming majority of registered voters expressing deep pessimism about the economy: 40.2% say the United States is currently in a recession, 17% call it a general state of stagnation, and 10.4% believe the country is in an outright depression.

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U.S. GDP Ticks Up, but Recession Fears Remain

Admin

The U.S. economy grew modestly in the fourth quarter of 2022, despite signs of weak domestic demand, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Thursday.

In the fourth quarter, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) grew by roughly 2.9%, down slightly from 3.2% in the third quarter, the BEA reported. Recession concerns among economists linger, however, amid fears that the Federal Reserve’s campaign of interest rate hikes — intended to reduce economic demand to slow inflation — will lead to reduced spending and layoffs, The Wall Street Journal reported.

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New Survey Shows Wisconsin Businesses See Recession Ahead

M.D. Kittle

Battered by ongoing high inflation, a majority of Wisconsin businesses see a recession ahead, according to Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce’s latest Wisconsin Employer Survey.

WMC’s survey finds 60 percent of businesses believe the Badger State economy is headed for a recession this year. On the surface, the number appears to be an improvement from last summer’s survey when 71 percent of respondents worried a recession was looming. But Nick Novak, WMC’s vice president of communications and marketing, said more employers moved from being sure about a recession to uncertain about the economy.

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Big Banks Predict Significant Economic Downturn in 2023: POLL

Admin

Of the 23 major financial institutions that work directly with the Federal Reserve, 16 anticipate a recession within the next 12 months, with two anticipating one the year after, according to a survey published by The Wall Street Journal Monday.

These institutions, which range from Bank of America to UBS, note that Americans are spending their savings, banks are heightening lending standards and the housing market is in a decline, all classic warning signs that a recession is impending, the WSJ reported. All of this is being exacerbated, the banks say, by the Fed’s historically aggressive pace of interest rate hikes, designed to blunt stubbornly persistent inflation.

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Blackburn Releases New Video on the Economy, Discusses What Has Kept Tennessee Growing as Nation Struggles

Bradley Vasoli

Tennessee Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn is preparing to release a video via social media discussing the state’s economy and spoke with The Tennessee Star this week to discuss both the pressures it endures as well as its bright spots compared with other regions.

In the one-minute spot, which shows the senator touring a Clarksville-area manufacturing plant, she discusses the challenge ongoing inflation poses to producers as they attempt to provide affordable goods to Tennesseans. 

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Special Report: Latino Youth Vote Comes into Focus after Democrats Sweep Gen Z

ADN America

by Gelet Martínez Fragela   As Republicans continue to grapple with a devastating loss among young adults from the 2022 midterm elections, some statistics suggest the GOP has an opportunity to pick up some traction with the Latino youth vote as their concerns could grow with age about crime, inflation and civil liberties. One million young Hispanic Americans are expected to turn 18 every year for the next 15 years, according to the Pew Research Center, making Hispanic American youth a key target demographic for both parties as a million new eligible voters will be borne from the group each year for the next decade and a half. Numbers don’t lie: Democrats conquered the youth vote in 2022 Tufts University’s Tisch College of Civic Life, one of the most dogged trackers of young voters, reported last month that 27% of 18-to-29 voters cast ballots in midterm elections, and that 63% of them voted Democratic in House elections. “Democrats would have gotten crushed without young voter support,” reported CNN’s Harry Enten in a Nov. 12 analysis. “Democratic House candidates won voters under the age of 45 by 13 points, while losing voters ages 45 and older by 10 points. Breaking it down further, House Democratic candidates…

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JPMorgan Strategists Predict Stock Plunge, Recession as Early as First Half of 2023

Admin

Strategists at JPMorgan Chase predicted a recession as soon as the first half of 2023, coupled with a major stock market slide, in a research note Thursday, according to Bloomberg.

The strategists expected the S&P 500 stock index to decline roughly 12% in the first half of next year, before rebounding to end 2023 up 3% as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve slows or reverses its aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes, Bloomberg reported. Despite the expectation that the stock market will rebound by the end of next year, the analysts anticipated that U.S. corporate earnings would fall roughly 9% as demand slumps and economic conditions limit companies’ ability to set higher prices.

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Goldman Sachs Issues Stock Market Warning

Admin

U.S. investors are significantly underestimating the risk of a recession, potentially increasing the impact of a recession next year, economists at Goldman Sachs warned in a Monday research note, according to Bloomberg.

Researchers at Goldman estimate a 39 percent chance of a slowdown in U.S. growth, but risk assets only account for an 11 percent chance, Bloomberg reported. By underestimating the chance of a recession, investors are increasing their exposure to the effects of “recession scares” in 2023, the analysts warned.

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Poll: Small Business Owners Trust Republicans to Help Them Amid Recession Fears

Admin

Small business owners believe they’ll benefit from Republican victories in the upcoming elections, according to a new poll.

Most small business employers believe the country is in a recession, and fear that economic conditions will put them out of business, with a majority believing a Republican victory will help them, according to the survey conducted by Rasmussen and the Job Creators Network Foundation (JCNF). The poll reflects a broader concern among voters about economic conditions and historic levels of inflation under the Biden administration.

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Investors Show Concern over Defaulting Mortgages as Possible Recession Looms

Just the News

Investors are reportedly concerned about mortgage defaults and are unloading Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities, amid record-high interest rates and a rapidly cooling housing market. 

Mortgage rates last week hit a two-decade high of 6.92%, a trend that has slowed the booming, often over-priced real estate market during the height of the pandemic.  

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Expect Layoffs and a Recession If Fed Doesn’t Let Up, Bank of America Exec Warns

Admin

If the U.S. Federal Reserve continues its policy of aggressive interest rate hikes, the U.S. could lose hundreds of thousands of jobs, spiking unemployment, according to a Bank of America analysis, CNN reported.

Bank of America’s Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen expects roughly six months of relatively high unemployment and a”mild recession,” as the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes blunt consumer demand, he told CNN Monday. However, Gapen also noted that the typical bounceback seen after a recession might be delayed if the Fed, which has been incredibly hawkish on interest rates, refuses to reduce rates.

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Commentary: Federal Reserve’s False Assumptions Push the Economy into Recession

Admin
Federal Reserve

Based on its assumptions, the Federal Reserve is doing everything right by raising interest rates rapidly after years of easy money. It will certainly succeed in its goal of “cooling down” the economy.

Unfortunately, the Fed’s basic assumptions are wrong, and it has already begun reducing Americans’ standard of living, as indicated by this week’s Commerce Department report showing the nation’s gross domestic product fell for the second quarter in a row, meeting the common definition of a recession.

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Commentary: Amid Recession Fears, Economically Free States Continue to Outperform

RealClearWire

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis recently responded to questions about California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s ads airing in Florida, “It’s almost hard to drive people out of a place like California given all their natural advantages, and yet they are finding a way to do it.” He noted that California is hemorrhaging its population because of bad progressive economic policies so that they could be more free

Florida ranks third in the nation for economic freedom, according to the Fraser Institute. And California ranks second to last.

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Paul Gosar Slams New Democrat Inflation Reduction Act as ‘More Wasteful Spending’

Neil Jones

Arizona Representative Paul Gosar (R-AZ-04) last week blasted the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, a revival of President Joe Biden’s (D) “Build Back Better” (BBB) economic bill, saying the contents of the bill will not accomplish what the title promotes.
“Families can’t afford gas and groceries, yet democrats want to raise taxes and spends billions more of your hard-earned money. Instead of addressing the root cause of the recession: out-of-control government spending, Joe Biden and democrats are now doubling down on their Far-Left Socialist policies that put us into this inflationary death spiral,” Gosar said.

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‘It’s An Absurd Argument’: Economists Take Apart One of Biden’s Favorite Talking Points

Admin

The Biden administration’s oft-touted talking point that employment has boomed under the administration is misleading and instead simply a natural recovery from pandemic losses, economists told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

Facing consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth, sky-high inflation and plummeting consumer sentiment, the Biden administration has routinely cited a low unemployment rate and strong on-paper jobs creation as positive results of President Joe Biden’s economic stewardship. But the notion that these figures represent booming job creation is misleading since the economy has merely rebounded by adding back jobs that were lost during the pandemic and has still yet to reach pre-pandemic levels, economists told the DCNF.

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The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Metric Just Surged in Another Warning Sign for the Economy

Admin

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, continued to surge in June, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

The PCE index was up 6.8% for the year ending in June, an increase from the 6.3% that it was at in both April and May, the BEA announced. PCE is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation because it is “just better at capturing the inflation people actually face in their lives,” and the central bank endeavors to keep it at 2%, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday.

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Pennsylvania State-Related Universities Going Ahead with Tuition Hikes

Bradley Vasoli

Pennsylvania’s four state-related universities are moving ahead with tuition increases in spite of Republican lawmakers’ exhortations that they freeze their prices. 

Earlier this week, state Senator Doug Mastriano (R-Gettysburg) sent a letter to the administrators of Temple University, Lincoln University, the University of Pittsburgh and the Pennsylvania State University to urge them not to further economically burden students or their families as inflation rages. Soon thereafter, GOP leaders of the state House of Representatives sent their own message to the four schools which operate independently but rely heavily on state funding.

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Tennessee Lawmakers Rip Biden Admin over Recession Debacle

Peter D'Abrosca

Tennessee’s lawmakers are ripping the Biden administration as he and other Democrats attempt to convince Americans that the country is not on the cusp of a recession, despite the expected Thursday announcement of two straight quarters of economic shrinkage. 

“Instead of changing the definition of recession, why won’t the White House change their policies that may get us in a recession in the first place?” Rep. John Rose (R-TN-06) asked on Twitter, linking to a speech he gave on the floor of the U.S. House. 

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Bill Hagerty Condemns the Biden Administration’s ‘Spin’ on Potential Recession

Aaron Gulbransen

U.S. Senator Bill Hagerty (R-TN) denounced the Biden administration’s recent attempt to change the conversation on the economy and the potential of a recession with host Elizabeth MacDonald on Fox Business’ “The Evening Edit” on Monday.

“It’s more spin coming out of the White House, Liz. I think you look at the estimates – what’s going to happen on Thursday, we’re going to probably read a negative 1.5 percent GDP growth. That’s another straight consecutive quarter to quarter decline,” said Hagerty.

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TN-5 Candidate Beth Harwell Criticizes Biden Administration over Recession Rhetoric and ‘Disastrous Policies’

Aaron Gulbransen

In a statement made on Tuesday and obtained by The Tennessee Star, Tennessee 5th Congressional District candidate and former Speaker of the Tennessee House of Representatives Beth Harwell took the Biden administration to task over it’s rhetoric on a possible economic recession and “their disastrous policies.”

“The Biden Administration wants to change the definition for ‘recession’ because they’re trying to cover up their disastrous policies that have put the American economy in this position. The American people are smart enough to see what they’re doing,” said Harwell.

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Biden Administration Accused of Gaslighting Nation with ‘Soviet Level Propaganda’ After Attempting to Redefine Recession

Admin

by Debra Heine   The White House is being accused of gaslighting the American people with “Soviet levels of propaganda” as Biden officials attempt to change the definition of recession amid economic data that shows the United States is entering into a recession. A recession is traditionally defined as two consecutive quarters of economic decline. The GDP in the first quarter of 2022 shrank at an annual pace of -1.6 percent—far worse than the mild increase analysts had expected. The numbers for second-quarter economic growth will be announced Thursday morning, and they are expected to be ugly. The Atlanta Fed is projecting another -1.6% decline, meaning we have officially entered into a recession—unless we broaden the definition of recession. “What is a recession? While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle,” Biden’s economic team said in a post on the White House website on July 21. “Instead, both official determinations of recessions and economists’ assessment of economic activity are based on a holistic look at the data—including the labor market, consumer and business spending, industrial production, and incomes. Based on these data, it is unlikely…

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Commentary: Historical Recession Signals Are Flashing Red

Admin

Unemployment insurance continuing claims increased by 122,000 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis from July 2 to July 9 to 1.45 million, the latest U.S. Department of Labor data shows, as multiple historical recession signals are flashing red.

The number comes as initial unemployment claims have continued ticking upward on both on a seasonally adjusted basis. Since mid-March, when weekly claims hit a low of 166,000, now they are up over 251,000.

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Federal Reserve Chair Powell Says During Senate Hearing That a Recession Is Possible

The Center Square

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. could enter into a recession when questioned Wednesday during a Senate Banking Committee hearing.

Confronted about 40-year-high inflation and the Fed raising interest rates in response, Powell said he couldn’t know for sure but said a recession, defined as a significant decline in economic activity over time, is possible.

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DeSantis: Florida Prepared If U.S. Heads into Recession

The Center Square

Gov. Ron DeSantis, when suggesting President Joe Biden’s economic policies will “plunge the United States into a recession,” says Florida will be prepared.

At a news conference this week announcing funding for flood control and water management projects in Lee County, he said that while inflation continues to worsen, Florida’s economy is strong, with revenue exceeding expectations.

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Shrinking GDP Could Hurt Georgia Economy as Recession Fears Rise

The Center Square

A shrinking gross domestic product could cost Georgia taxpayers and is likely to hurt middle-class Georgians in particular as the country appears headed toward a recession, a non-profit policy group said this week.

“The tab is coming due for all the reckless stimulus spending during the COVID-19 pandemic,” Erik Randolph, director of research for the Georgia Center for Opportunity, said in a statement. “The declining GDP in the first quarter is the strongest indicator yet that our nation is headed into a recession.”

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