The prognostications within the Vanderbilt University Poll released by its Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions missed the actual intentions of Tennessee voters by up to 20 percent.
Published in May, the Vanderbilt poll failed to capture the size of the lead achieved by Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) in her race against State Representative Gloria Johnson (D-Knoxville), with the pollsters ultimately off by 20 percent.
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A poll released Wednesday shows Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) continuing to hold a double-digit lead over her likely Democratic challenger, State Representative Gloria Johnson (D-Knoxville), a member of the Tennessee Three.
The spring edition of the Vanderbilt University poll of Tennessee voters found Blackburn has the support of 51 percent of Tennesseans, placing her 11 points ahead of Johnson, who polled at 40 percent.
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The latest Vanderbilt Poll paints a picture of a politically divided Tennessee, but the poll’s methodology reveals its creators prioritized registered voters in the Nashville area.
The Vanderbilt Poll, launched by the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions in an attempt to provide a nonpartisan reading of public opinion, portrayed Tennesseans as overall politically conservative but starkly divided over certain issues.
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A Vanderbilt University poll suggested that 88 percent of Tennessee’s registered Republican voters doubt the legitimacy of the presidential election. According to the university, the poll’s purpose was to discover any correlation between support of the COVID-19 vaccine and views on the election’s integrity. The poll lasted 21 days, surveying just over 1,000 individuals. Nowhere in their methodology did the research include the exact number of Republicans, Democrats, independent, and “other” respondents.
A supplementary video summarizing the polling results noted that 83 percent of Democrats pose a large public health problem, as opposed to 47 percent of Republicans. After providing that information, the video noted that 97 percent of Democrats believed nationwide votes from the Presidential election were counted fairly and accurately, as opposed to 12 percent of Republicans.
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A new Triton poll finds decidedly liberal Davidson County is solidly against Mayor John Cooper’s proposed 32 percent property tax hike. The poll is available here. It was conducted last Thursday and Friday by Triton Polling & Research and was paid for by Nashville Smart, a local 501(c)(4). Lonnie Spivak, an election expert, is with Nashville Smart. He spoke with The Tennessee Star about the poll Monday. Spivak also will be on Tuesday morning’s The Tennessee Star Report with Michael Patrick Leahy – broadcast on Nashville’s Talk Radio 98.3 and 1510 WLAC weekdays from 5:00 am to 8:00 am. On Monday, Spivak said Nashville Smart, as a 501(c)(4), has no position on whether the tax increase should pass, and that it commissioned the poll for informational purposes. “We wanted to judge what the public opinion of the tax increase is going into the budget season,” Spivak said. “Metro Council doesn’t have the resources to poll.” The Triton poll sampled 769 registered voters, with 53.5 percent identifying as Democrat, 28.8 percent Republican, 15.3 percent Independent and 2.4 percent Not Sure/Undecided. Mayor Cooper had a 47.1 percent favorable rating, 25.6 percent unfavorable, and 25.7 had heard of him but had no opinion. Regarding Cooper’s…
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A new poll from Vanderbilt University claims the approval rating for Mayor John Cooper is “sky high,” but only 19 percent of respondents said they identify as Republicans.
Another 45 percent of respondents said they identify as Democrats, while 26 percent said they are Independents and 10 percent said they are “something else.” Only 21 percent said their political views are “very conservative” or “conservative,” compared to 30 percent who said they are “liberal” or “very liberal.” Forty-eight percent said their political views are “moderate.”
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by Steve Gill Vanderbilt University is out with another of their “polls”, conducted by the Center for the Study of Democratic Organizations, that is being greeted with breathless reporting of the results by some media outlets across Tennessee. Keep in mind that this is the same group that conducted a poll of 800 registered Davidson County voters over a twelve day period from February 8-19 (TWELVE DAYS?) that included a question focused on support for the Megan Barry Transit Plan. The “poll” revealed that Davidson County voters supported the plan by a solid 42-28% split, with 34% undecided. Astute observers may remember that the Tennessean gleefully reported on the “edge” transit referendum supporters enjoyed, based on the poll. However, the referendum was loudly rejected by voters 64-36%–a 28 point margin. So, the Vanderbilt poll only missed the actual results by a whopping 42 points! (The Tennessee Star poll showed a much more accurate 62-28% split in advance of the vote, with ten percent undecided.) Now, Vanderbilt is out with another poll. This time they polled 1400 registered voters (not likely voters) over a thirteen day period (April 26 – May 8), with a slight skew towards Republican voters intended…
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A new Vanderbilt University poll of 800 “residents” of Davidson County purports to claim that Nashville Mayor Megan Barry has seen little slippage of popularity despite her ongoing sex scandal, including new revelations regarding nude photos, questionable use of overtime security details at non-official events, and continued investigations into potential misuse of public funds and lack of transparency. The “poll” indicates that Barry has see a decline in her approval rating from 72% in a similar poll a year ago to 61% today. The Vanderbilt Poll, which will be released with further details on March 4, 2018, was provided in a “limited preview release” to The Tennessean on February 27. The methodology of the “poll” raises serious questions concerning both the political applicability as well as the means by which the data was collected. 1. The survey was conducted from February 8-19, 2018. No serious polling operation ever conducts a poll over eleven days, particularly when new information is coming forth on a daily basis. 2. Polling “residents” rather than “registered voters,” or more appropriately “likely voters,” limits the political application of the polling data because those who are not even registered to vote tend to be less informed and…
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There are at least seven reasons why the Vanderbilt Poll-Tennessee released on Tuesday by the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions, co-directed by Vanderbilt Professor John Geer, is fatally flawed. Those flaws come as no surprise to conservatives across the state. “The Vanderbilt Poll has notoriously leaned left for many years in the eyes of most Tennessee conservatives,” The Tennessee Star reported on an earlier Vanderbilt Poll released back in April, and the latest poll is no different, local conservatives say. Among its counter-intuitive findings was this cleverly worded claim: Support for a path to citizenship for undocumented employees is the highest it has been since the poll’s inception: up to 56 percent. And that figure is not just driven by Democrats—40 percent of Republicans favor it too. An additional 20 percent favor the establishment of a guest worker program. Even stronger is support for helping teens of undocumented parents raised in Tennessee and who attend a Tennessee public university. Two-thirds of Tennesseans say they deserve to be eligible for in-state tuition at public colleges. “It is very obvious that Vanderbilt had the result they wanted and polled until they got it,” Tennessee conservative activist Judson Phillips, Founder of…
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A new Vanderbilt Poll confirms what most Tennesseans have known for years: Nashville is a far left island of Democratic blue surrounded by a sea of conservative Republican red. The majority of those surveyed in Davidson County (Nashville) disapprove of President Trump, including 51 percent of white voters. Disapproval among black and Hispanic respondents tops more than 70 percent. President Trump crushed Hillary Clinton in Tennessee in the November 2016 general election, winning the state’s eleven electoral college votes in a 61 percent to 35 percent blowout over the former Secretary of State. In Davidson County (Nashville), it was an entirely different matter. Hillary Clinton defeated President Trump in the urban center of Middle Tennessee by a 60 percent to 34 percent margin. “When you’re polling registered voters rather than likely voters, your results are going to skew left because you are polling a lot of people who are not informed and engaged enough to actually vote,” former Nashville radio talk show host and media consultant Steve Gill tells The Tennessee Star. “Taking that into account, the Vanderbilt Poll essentially reflects the election day results,” he adds. “The Vanderbilt Poll has spent a lot of money to confirm what most everybody…
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