The Georgia Republican primary race for Secretary of State is deadlocked in a virtual tie.
Incumbent Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger does lead his primary challenger, U.S. Representative Jody Hice (R-GA-10); however, the lead is well within the poll’s 4.3 percent margin of error.
Raffensperger, in a situation that many political observers consider alarming for an incumbent, polls at far less than fifty percent.
According to a poll conducted by Emerson College Polling/The Hill, Raffensperger leads Hice 28.6 percent to 26.1 percent, a margin of 2.5 percentage points. 36.6 percent of those surveyed are undecided. Former President Donald Trump, upset by Raffensperger’s actions as secretary of state in conjunction with the 2020 elections, has endorsed Hice.
Trump issued a statement when he endorsed Hice. “Jody has been a steadfast fighter for conservative Georgia values and is a staunch ally of the America First agenda. Unlike the current Georgia Secretary of State, Jody leads out front with integrity,” he said. “I have 100 percent confidence in Jody to fight for Free, Fair, and Secure Elections in Georgia, in line with our beloved U.S. Constitution. Jody will stop the Fraud and get honesty into our Elections! Jody loves the people of Georgia, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement.”
Historically, undecideds tend to break for the challenger. Additionally, support for President Trump has been notoriously hard to poll and it is possible that could continue for candidates that he has endorsed. Shy Trump voters in the past have either not answered polling or misrepresented their voting intentions. That could wind up being the case for Hice’s supporters.
Georgia’s primaries are scheduled to occur on May 24. If no candidate achieves 50 percent plus one vote, then a primary runoff becomes necessary. If that scenario occurs, the primary runoff would be scheduled for June 21.
Emerson College explained the poll methodology, saying the “poll was conducted April 1-3, 2022.” It added, “The Republican primary sample consisted of likely voters, n=509, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points.”
The college also explained how the data was weighted and the sample collected.
“The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, and region based on 2020 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample of SMS-to-web, an online panel provided by Amazon Mechanical Turk, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.”
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Aaron Gulbransen is a reporter at The Georgia Star News and The Star News Network. Email tips to [email protected]. Follow Aaron on GETTR, Twitter, and Parler.
Photo “Brad Raffensperger” by Brad Raffensperger.
