GOP gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin crept past Democrat Terry McAuliffe in polling averages on Friday, thanks to a Fox poll that showed the Republican ahead by eight points, well outside the three point margin of error. A Washington Post poll released Friday showed a tighter race, with Youngkin trailing McAuliffe by one point. Youngkin now leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by a hair — 0.9 percentage points. That’s setting Virginians up for a nail-biter on Tuesday evening, but depending on how close the results are, the winner might not be clear for days, since mail-in-ballots can be counted if they’re received by noon on Friday.
“Youngkin has as good a shot as we’ve seen in a decade. Also, attorney general tends to run two-to-three points ahead of governor for us,” Prince William County GOP Vice-Chair Willie Deutsch said. “I’m confident we have a legit shot but I wouldn’t put much money on anyone.”
After a ratings change to Tilt Democrat earlier this week, CNalysis Director Chaz Nuttycombe said the race is now a toss-up, citing Youngkin momentum. Democratic pundit Ben Tribbett agreed that it’s a toss-up.
“Be ready for a long night on Tuesday,” Tribbett said. “Ballots can come in until Friday if mailed by Tuesday. But I’m not sure it will be that close.”
Poll Details
The Fox poll of 1,015 likely voters was conducted October 24 through 27. Youngkin got 53 percent support to McAuliffe’s 45 percent, while “Other” carried one percent. That’s nearly the inverse of Fox’s October 10 through 13 poll, which had McAuliffe at 51 percent and Youngkin at 46 percent among likely voters.
“What changed? GOP enthusiasm. The race is largely focused on education and this has energized Republicans, as 79 percent of Youngkin supporters are “extremely” interested in the election compared to 69 percent of McAuliffe supporters,” Fox reported.
The Washington Post poll of 918 likely voters showed Youngkin with 48 percent to McAuliffe’s 49 percent, and one percent support for Liberation Party candidate Princess Blanding. The poll was conducted by George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government from October 20 through 26, and has a four percent margin of error.
“The result is little changed from last month, when a Post-Schar School poll measured the race at 50 percent McAuliffe-47 percent Youngkin — although the Democrat’s six percentage-point edge among all registered voters in September has narrowed to three points in the new poll, at 47 percent for McAuliffe to 44 percent for Youngkin,” The Post reported.
Nuttycombe said the Fox poll features too many Republicans in its sample, and said The Post’s poll is realistic.
Last-Minute Political Plays
Both candidates launched new ads on Friday. McAuliffe launched an ad featuring Beloved author Toni Morrison, whose book became the latest prop in a war between the two candidates over parental involvement in education. Earlier this week, a Youngkin ad featured a parent who opposed having Beloved taught in her son’s class.
“But now in the final days of this campaign, Glenn Youngkin supports banning books by Toni Morrison and other black authors in Virginia classrooms. We know what this is. Just like Donald Trump, Glenn is trying to silence our voices,” the ad states.
Youngkin’s Friday ad highlights his early argument that he’s a political outsider, and matches it with Youngkin’s final three campaign issues: “This election isn’t about them, it’s about us. It’s about law enforcement that needs our support to keep Virginia safe. Parents who want a better education for our kids. And Virginians who deserve lower taxes. Together we can build a better future that works for us.”
The Lincoln Project’s Tiki Torches
The official messaging was drowned out Friday afternoon by a viral photo of a group posed in front of Youngkin’s tour bus in Albemarle. Carrying tiki torches and wearing khakis and white shirts, the group imitated the visual imagery of white nationalists at the deadly 2017 Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville. The picture coincided with the end of the first week in the trial of the Sines v. Kessler lawsuit against organizers of that rally, and the location of the bus stop in Albemarle was not far from the court in Charlottesville.
One person who was at the Youngkin event Friday told The Star that the people in the photograph stood outside the event as protesters, and that it was clear to those present that they were not Youngkin supporters.
Local media promptly reported on the photo. Outrage quickly spread on the Twitter.
But social media users from both parties speculated that the people in the photo weren’t actually Trump supporters, and condemned Democratic operatives who they blamed for the stunt. Both Youngkin’s campaign and the Democratic Party of Virginia issued statements denying involvement. Eventually the never-Trump organization The Lincoln Project issued a statement taking credit for the stunt.
“Today’s demonstration was our way of reminding Virginians what happened in Charlottesville four years ago, the Republican Party’s embrace of those values, and Glenn Youngkin’s failure to condemn it,” the statement said. “We will continue to hold Glenn Youngkin accountable. If he will denounce Trump’s assertion that the Charlottesville rioters possessed ‘very fine’ qualities, we’ll withdraw the tiki torches. Until then, we’ll be back.”
The Lincoln Project was thoroughly criticized on Twitter.
“Twitter should ban every account involved in the planning or promotion of today’s stunt. Charlottesville is not something for cheap political stunts, it’s been over four years and the community is still traumatized by went on there,” Tribbett tweeted.
“Charlottesville is not a prop. Our community is still reeling from years of trauma — especially this week. Don’t come back, @ProjectLincoln. Your stunts aren’t welcome here,” Delegate Sally Hudson (D-Charlottesville) tweeted.
GOP lieutenant governor candidate Winsome Sears tweeted, “This was a despicable stunt, regardless of who was behind it. People are setting out to divide, stoking our worst fears and divisions. We cannot let them win & we won’t. Together @GlennYoungkin, @JasonMiyares, and I will unify ALL Virginians & bring a new day to our Commonwealth.”
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Eric Burk is a reporter at The Virginia Star and The Star News Network. Email tips to [email protected].
Background Photo “Virginia Capitol” by Martin Kraft. CC BY-SA 3.0.
The LINCOLN PROJECT group is taking ‘credit’ (i.e., blame) for this. I MYSELF DON’T BELIEVE IT! I THINK THAT THE VIRGINIA/NATIONAL D’RAT PARTY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS. If, in fact, the Lincoln Project group is responsible, YOU CAN BET YOUR LAST DOLLAR THAT IT DID IT IN CONSULTATION WITH THE VIRGINIA/NATIONAL D’RAT PARTY! It’s just that the ‘stunt’ didn’t work out, so now the ‘night critters’ are scurrying from the light to HIDE!