The Virginia gubernatorial race is neck-and-neck, according to a new poll. 46 percent of respondents support former Governor Terry McAuliffe and 42 percent support GOP nominee Glenn Youngkin, with a 4.2 percent margin of error. The phone poll of 550 likely voters was conducted by JMC Analytics from June 9-12 and was commissioned by CNalysis with funds from 141 donors.
House of Delegates races are even closer. The poll found that 44 percent would support a Democratic candidate for House and 43 percent would support a Republican candidate. Democrats have stronger leads in the Attorney General and Lieutenant Governor elections.
“However, if Democrats were to only win the House of Delegates popular vote by 1 percent in November, they would almost certainly lose the chamber due to Republican gerrymandering in several districts as well as overrepresentation of rural, overwhelmingly conservative areas that have lost population since the initial map was drawn in 2011,” CNalysis states.
Delegate Hala Ayala (D-Prince William) has 42 percent versus 36 percent for Winsome Sears in the race for lieutenant governor. Incumbent Attorney General Mark Herring has 45 percent versus Delegate Jason Miyares (R-Virginia Beach,) who has 38 percent.
The poll also found that the percentage of voters who support McAuliffe is less than the 50 percent of voters polled who voted for President Joe Biden in 2020.
“Terry McAuliffe in the Governor‘s race does not attain those levels of support,” JMC’s summary states. “While Biden had a one–point (41–40 percent) lead among Independents, McAuliffe is underwater by 6 points (37–43 percent) among this demographic. Patterns of support similar [to] McAuliffe’s are seen in the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General’s races, where Democrats similarly have plurality leads.”
The report says Democrats are under-performing compared to 2020 Biden in Northern Virginia. CNalysis credits that in part to a pattern that, in years following a presidential election, sees Virginia’s elections swing against the party in the White House.
Republican Party of Virginia (RPV) Ramps Up Attacks on McAuliffe
On Monday, the RPV announced a new ad featuring dramatic music and darkened clips of television coverage from the past year including the Virginia Parole Board, the Virginia Department of Education, and Virginia unemployment claims performance.
The ad ends with a clip of Terry McAuliffe saying, “That’s what you get with Democrats!”
In a separate press release Monday, the RPV highlighted analysis from Glenn Kessler at the The Washington Post challenging a McAuliffe claim that he “inherited the largest budget deficit in the history of the state from the Republicans.”
“The Washington Post this morning called out Two-Faced Terry on the lie, rating it a Four Pinocchio lie (out of four). It is the fourth time this particular claim has been judged a lie by liberal fact-checkers,” the RPV said.
In another press release Monday, the RPV responded to a McAuliffe endorsement from the Service Employees International Union (SEIU). The RPV’s release suggests that McAuliffe has flipped back and forth between support and opposition for Virginia’s right-to-work laws over the past two decades.
“Two-Faced Terry McAuliffe will continue to lie to Virginians because he will stop at nothing to keep hold over the radical leftist party that he’s been the boss of for four decades,” Anderson said in the release.
Democratic Party of Virginia (DPVA): ‘Youngkin Lurches Further to the Right’
On Sunday, the DPVA said, “Terry McAuliffe’s decisive primary victory has sent Glenn Youngkin into a far-right tailspin that would make Amanda Chase proud. Youngkin has already spent months showing Virginians his extreme views — but now, he is sprinting even further to the right with his dangerous agenda.”
The DPV press release lists popular Democratic issues, stating that Youngkin opposes them, including a $15-an-hour minimum wage; paid sick, family, and medical leave; refusing to support marriage equality; and “his repeated refusal to name a single issue on which he disagrees with Donald Trump or the national GOP.”
DPVA spokesman Manuel Bonder said in the release, “While Terry is laser-focused on building a better economic future for people across the commonwealth, Youngkin is busy doubling down on an extreme right-wing agenda that will hurt Virginia’s economy and prop up Donald Trump.”
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Eric Burk is a reporter at The Virginia Star and the Star News Network. Email tips to [email protected].
